Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania III tournament a couple of weeks ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks we are looking at NFL players and more specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com that was created by Sam Hoppen to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Top 10 ADP Risers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | May 23 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen Tolbert | WR | DAL | 161.6 | 15.1 |
| 2 | Jarvis Landry | WR | NO | 139.0 | 10.2 |
| 3 | Keaontay Ingram | RB | ARI | 197.7 | 9.0 |
| 4 | Tyrion Davis-Price | RB | SF | 172.2 | 7.6 |
| 5 | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | NYG | 193.8 | 6.4 |
| 6 | Jameis Winston | QB | NO | 158.9 | 5.9 |
| 7 | Robby Anderson | WR | CAR | 178.2 | 5.9 |
| 8 | Ezekiel Elliott | RB | DAL | 42.3 | 5.4 |
| 9 | Tim Patrick | WR | DEN | 130.5 | 5.4 |
| 10 | Aaron Jones | RB | GB | 21.2 | 4.9 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 05/15/2022-05/23/22***
We are seeing four rookies in the top five ADP risers this week. That is normal this time of year as the offseason is starting to settle in and it is the quiet before the storm of training camps opening up. With the lack of news this time of year you are going to see players rise in ADP more so because of hype and what better players to hype up in mid-May than the rookies. The names of Tolbert, Ingram, Davis-Price, and Robinson are all names that have decent draft capital and are inserted into their teams' depth charts at a solid spot. We see the New Orleans duo of Jameis Winston and Jarvis Landry get a bump in ADP with Landry finally signing with the Saints. This duo is interesting as an ADP riser because of the QB/WR stack potential and with Best Ball drafters wanting to make sure they correlate their stacks. The Landry and Winston stack is relatively still pretty inexpensive and will probably be one that will continue to rise over the next few weeks. Aaron Jones is rising based on a lot of touts and, specifically, Evan Silva mentioning him this week as he has him ranked in the 1st round currently. I think the bumps up in Robby Anderson and Tim Patrick both make a lot of sense with them being slightly undervalued and with the love of the wide receiver position overall. Ezekiel Elliott is a name that I believe will bump up and down all offseason as most drafters don't really know what to think of him. Elliott will be one of the names to watch all offseason and it will be smart to look for value when drafting him. As he is on the rise currently it probably makes some sense to sit back and let others draft him.
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Top 10 ADP Fallers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | May 23 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Fuller | WR | FA | 161.4 | 8.3 |
| 2 | Marlon Mack | RB | HOU | 187.0 | 7.1 |
| 3 | Zamir White | RB | LV | 206.6 | 6.4 |
| 4 | Raheem Mostert | RB | MIA | 167.9 | 6.0 |
| 5 | Corey Davis | WR | NYJ | 156.2 | 6.0 |
| 6 | George Pickens | WR | PIT | 147.7 | 6.0 |
| 7 | Curtis Samuel | WR | WAS | 180.6 | 5.1 |
| 8 | Odell Beckham | WR | FA | 176.1 | 5.0 |
| 9 | Justyn Ross | WR | KC | 211.4 | 4.7 |
| 10 | John Metchie | WR | HOU | 187.2 | 4.3 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 05/15/2022-05/23/22***
Similar to the risers we see with the ADP fallers that four of the top ten are rookies once again with White, Pickens, Ross, and Metchie cracking the list. Until we actually start getting camp reports on these rookies we are really just guessing on them and what their value is or could be. We also see two free agents on the list in William Fuller and Odell Beckham as drafters seem to look to safer options that they know a clearer situation at this time in the offseason. For tournaments such as BBM3, the likes of Fuller and Beckham as a late-round pick could make a lot of sense as they have the potential to give you spike week production later in the season and if you add them late as your WR6-8 they will not hurt the rest of your roster early in the season. They are the type of players you want to take some late-round shots on now as when they sign contracts with their new teams their ADPs will both rise up several rounds. Corey Davis is the name here on this list who doesn't make much sense. He showed last year that he had a connection with Zach Wilson, and as the two enter a second season playing together, he is a great buy, especially at his current ADP price. Marlon Mack and Curtis Samuel are the other two names in the top ten this week; they make sense as fallers as Mack offers very little in a crowded backfield in Houston and Samuel showed very little last year in Washington and we are still trying to get a feel for his health and where he fits this year in Washington.
Weekly News and Notes
- QB Matt Corral - Panthers GM Scott Fitterer called the team's starting quarterback job "up for grabs"
- QB Deshaun Watson - Albert Breer believes the NFL is likely wrapping things up in the Watson investigation
- WR Jarvis Landry - Signed with the New Orleans Saints
- WR Christian Blake - Signed with the Arizona Cardinals
- RB Pierre Strong - NESN's Zack Cox believes Strong was drafted as James White's long-term replacement
- RB Tarik Cohen - Free agent who suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon during a workout
- RB Phillip Lindsay - Signed a one-year contract with the Indianapolis Colts
- WR Jameson Williams - is believed to have a chance to play in September
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania III in full swing. It has been live for two weeks and already is 8% full with over 37,000 entries already in play out of 451,200. Over the past week, BBM3 has gained over 11,000 entries and is up 3% on how much it has filled so far. If you are looking to play in this tournament, I wrote an article looking at the format and giving some tips and tricks when it comes to drafting that you can find here.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and has a top prize of $250,000.00. This tournament is a total points tournament that has no playoffs and goes from Week 1 to Week 17. It is currently sitting at 1,600/55,008 full. Over the past week, 400 new entries have filled the contest.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $5 entry Best Ball tournament this week. It has a $1 million to 1st place price but you will have to beat out 837,200 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 35,000/837,216 full. Draftkings also released a $3 tournament that has max entries of 20 and has a 1st place prize of $30,000. They have a total of seven Best Ball tournaments right now in their lobby with buy-ins at $3, $5, $15 (single entry), $20, $200 (single entry), $555, and $2,120.
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I am going to be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2022. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts on there daily and am always happy to answer questions on there via replies or DMs, you can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!