Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania III tournament a couple of weeks ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks we are looking at NFL players and more specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com that was created by Sam Hoppen to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Top 10 ADP Risers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | May 23 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen Tolbert | WR | DAL | 161.6 | 15.1 |
| 2 | Jarvis Landry | WR | NO | 139.0 | 10.2 |
| 3 | Keaontay Ingram | RB | ARI | 197.7 | 9.0 |
| 4 | Tyrion Davis-Price | RB | SF | 172.2 | 7.6 |
| 5 | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | NYG | 193.8 | 6.4 |
| 6 | Jameis Winston | QB | NO | 158.9 | 5.9 |
| 7 | Robby Anderson | WR | CAR | 178.2 | 5.9 |
| 8 | Ezekiel Elliott | RB | DAL | 42.3 | 5.4 |
| 9 | Tim Patrick | WR | DEN | 130.5 | 5.4 |
| 10 | Aaron Jones | RB | GB | 21.2 | 4.9 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 05/15/2022-05/23/22***
We are seeing four rookies in the top five ADP risers this week. That is normal this time of year as the offseason is starting to settle in and it is the quiet before the storm of training camps opening up. With the lack of news this time of year you are going to see players rise in ADP more so because of hype and what better players to hype up in mid-May than the rookies. The names of Tolbert, Ingram, Davis-Price, and Robinson are all names that have decent draft capital and are inserted into their teams' depth charts at a solid spot. We see the New Orleans duo of Jameis Winston and Jarvis Landry get a bump in ADP with Landry finally signing with the Saints. This duo is interesting as an ADP riser because of the QB/WR stack potential and with Best Ball drafters wanting to make sure they correlate their stacks. The Landry and Winston stack is relatively still pretty inexpensive and will probably be one that will continue to rise over the next few weeks. Aaron Jones is rising based on a lot of touts and, specifically, Evan Silva mentioning him this week as he has him ranked in the 1st round currently. I think the bumps up in Robby Anderson and Tim Patrick both make a lot of sense with them being slightly undervalued and with the love of the wide receiver position overall. Ezekiel Elliott is a name that I believe will bump up and down all offseason as most drafters don't really know what to think of him. Elliott will be one of the names to watch all offseason and it will be smart to look for value when drafting him. As he is on the rise currently it probably makes some sense to sit back and let others draft him.
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