Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania III tournament a few months ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com that was created by Sam Hoppen to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Top 10 ADP Risers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | JULY 24 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | 171.1 | 11.6 |
| 2 | Kyle Rudolph | TE | TB | 209.3 | 6.7 |
| 3 | Rachaad White | RB | TB | 119.7 | 6.5 |
| 4 | Chase Edmonds | RB | MIA | 95.8 | 5.0 |
| 5 | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 104.8 | 4.6 |
| 6 | Kendrick Bourne | WR | NE | 183.3 | 4.6 |
| 7 | Marlon Mack | RB | HOU | 172.2 | 4.4 |
| 8 | J.D. McKissic | RB | WAS | 182.6 | 4.2 |
| 9 | Isaiah Spiller | RB | LAC | 129.7 | 4.1 |
| 10 | Austin Hooper | TE | TEN | 180.5 | 4.1 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 07/17/2022-07/24/22***
Deshaun Watson continues to be at the top of the ADP risers list for the second straight week as we have to continue to wait on any news on the situation. At 171.6 ADP, you are seeing drafters taking more shots at him, especially in three-quarterback builds, as the risk might be worth the shot right now at the steep discount. Second on the list is Kyle Rudolph, who just signed a one-year deal with Tampa Bay and now enters a committee at the position with Cameron Brate and Cade Otton. Not much to read into the tight end situation right now as it looks like drafters just jumped on the news in this one, and I find it hard to see Rodolph's ADP rising too high in the future. We now see six of the next seven on the list at the running back position as we are at the point in the offseason where we continue to speculate more so at this position for opportunities. Rachaad White is getting a bump based on the negative Leonard Fournette news, and with being a rookie and in such a run-friendly offense, drafters are not wanting to miss out on the potential value. We have Chase Edmonds next, who signed with Miami and is thought to possibly be the number one at the position to start the season. Rhamondre Stevenson is the fifth riser this week as drafters are looking for a breakout player at the position.
The remaining running back on the list are Marlon Mack, J.D. McKissic, and Isaiah Spiller, as they are all intriguing names on their teams' running back depth charts. We have no real idea who the running back will be in Houston as they have a handful of names crowding the depth chart, but Mack looks to have three-down back potential depending on how healthy he is. McKissic will be a third-down option and one that looks locked in to catch passes out of the backfield and will have a role from Week 1 locked in. Spiller is much like White, who looks to be the second option on a team with elite potential to put up points at the position. We will continue to see Spiller and White rise as we lead up to the start of the season. The other two names are veteran players in Kendrick Bourne and Austin Hooper, who might not be flashy names but are on offenses that will have to count on them to contribute. They are some good names to get later in best ball drafts to help float your team week to week.
Top 10 ADP Fallers
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| Rank | Player | Position | Team | JULY 24 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cameron Brate | TE | TB | 191.9 | 10.6 |
| 2 | William Fuller | WR | FA | 193.4 | 7.0 |
| 3 | Isaiah McKenzie | WR | BUF | 206.0 | 6.5 |
| 4 | Albert Okwuegbunam | TE | DEN | 149.6 | 5.8 |
| 5 | Robert Tonyan Jr | TE | GB | 154.5 | 5.2 |
| 6 | K.J. Hamler | WR | DEN | 186.9 | 4.0 |
| 7 | Michael Gallup | WR | DAL | 127.4 | 3.6 |
| 8 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 109.6 | 3.3 |
| 9 | Corey Davis | WR | NYJ | 166.3 | 2.9 |
| 10 | Julio Jones | WR | FA | 189.9 | 2.8 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 07/17/2022-07/24/22***
Cameron Brate's ADP was one of the big risers after the Rob Gronkowski retirement news, but now it looks like his ADP shot up too much and is just leveling back out. You also have the signing of Kyle Rudolph in Tampa Bay this week, pushing Brate's ADP down. We see two names in William Fuller and Julio Jones that remain without an NFL team, and as we approach August, we are seeing drafters scared off and just not drafting them right now. We see a couple of Broncos on this list with Albert Okwuegbunam and K.J. Hamler. I am not sure why they continue to drop as it looks like Denver has a slew of offensive players, and we are just trying to guess on how many opportunities will be there for the likes of Okwuegbunam and Hamler.
Teams are now starting to add players to the PUP list, and we see Robert Tonyan Jr and Michael Gallup find their way onto the ADP fallers list because of it. The more times we see injured players in the draft room with question marks surrounding their names, the more they will drop in ADP as the season creeps closer. I suspect we will see more names in the fallers list next week as some of the names on that list now are J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Samaje Perine, Jameson Williams, Christian Watson, David Bell, Michael Thomas, Robert Tonyan Jr, David Bellinger, and C.J. Uzomah. Look for some of these names to find their way on this exact list next week. Seeing Aaron Rodgers on this list seems funny to me. He is a big-time buy at this 109.6 ADP price. You are seeing the dip on Rodgers because it is hard to stack him with his teammates now with Adams in Las Vegas. If you are buying any of this fallers this week it has to be Rodgers as he makes for a great addition as your second quarterback on your best ball team.
Weekly News and Notes
- WR John Metchie - Was diagnosed with acute promyelocytic leukemia and will "likely" not be playing football in 2022.
- PUP List: WR Jameson Williams, RB Samaje Perine, WR Christian Watson, TE Robert Tonyan Jr, RB J.K.Dobbins, WR David Bell, WR Michael Thomas, TE Daniel Bellinger, TE Maxx Williams, RB Gus Edwards, RB James White, TE CJ Uzomah,
- RB Alvin Kamara - "no firm timeline on a decision on discipline" for Kamara's legal situation.
- RB Leonard Fournette - Weight concerns have been the news recently but Fournette's personal trainer said the concerns were "blown out of proportion."
- QB Kyler Murray - signed a five-year, $230.5 million contract extension with the Cardinals.
- RB Kenyan Drake - has been cleared to begin training camp.
- TE Kyle Rudolph - Signed a one-year contract with Tampa Bay.
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania III in full swing. It has been live for two weeks and is already 30% full with over 160,000 entries already in play out of 451,200. Over the past week, BBM3 has gained over 24,000 entries and is up 5% on how much it has filled so far. If you want to play in this tournament, I wrote an article looking at the format and giving some tips and tricks for drafting that you can find here. Underdog also released The Puppy 2, a $5 entry tournament with a total of 111,780 entries with a top prize of $75,000 and is now full. The newest release was The Great Dane which is a $1,000 entry fee that focuses more on the high-stakes players and has a $20,000 top prize and $100,000 prize pool.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and has a top prize of $250,000.00. This tournament is a total points tournament that has no playoffs and goes from Week 1 to Week 17. It is currently sitting at 6,845/55,008 full. Over the past week, 1200 new entries have filled the contest. This particular contest looks like it will be headed to some potential overlay. Drafters also released a $2.22 buy-in tournament that has a $50,000 prize pool with $10,000 to 1st place, which is 10,200/25,008 full.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $5 entry Best Ball tournament this week. It has a $1 million to 1st place price, but you will have to beat out 837,200 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 279,500/837,216 full. Draftkings also released a $3 tournament with max entries of 20 and a 1st place prize of $30,000. They have a total of seven Best Ball tournaments right now in their lobby with buy-ins at $3, $5, $15 (single entry), $20, $200 (single entry), $555, and $2,120.
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
| Best Ball Site Tournament |
Entry Fee | Prize Pool | Total Entries | Current Entries | Percent Full | Tourney Type | Rake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog BBM3 |
$25 | $10,000,000 | 451,200 | 160,000 |
35% |
Playoffs | 11.3% |
| Underdog The Bulldog |
$500 | $100,000 | 216 | 216 | 100% | Playoffs | 7.4% |
| Underdog The Great Dane |
$1,000 | $100,000 | 108 | 75 | 69% | Playoffs | 7.4% |
| Underdog Rookies + Sophomores 2 |
$10 | $75,000 | 8,400 | 8,400 | 100% | Playoffs | 10.7% |
| Underdog Puppy 2 |
$5 | $500,000 | 111,780 | 111,780 | 100% | Playoffs | 10.5% |
| Underdog The Puppy but Superflex |
$5 | $250,000 | 55,944 | 55,944 | 100% | Playoffs | 10.6% |
| Drafters Million BB Championship |
$20 | $1,000,000 | 55,008 | 6,845 | 12.4% | Total Points | 9.10% |
| Drafters Mini Best Ball Championship |
$2.22 | $50,000 | 25,008 | 10,200 | 40.8% | Total Points | 11.0% |
| DraftKings $3.5M Millionaire |
$5 | $3,500,000 | 837,216 | 328,800 | 39.3% | Playoffs | 16.40% |
| DraftKings Play-Action (20 Max) |
$3 | $300,000 | 116,640 | 78,000 | 66.9% | Playoffs | 14.26% |
| DraftKings Shovel Pass |
$20 | $300,000 | 17,280 | 15,100 | 87.4% | Playoffs | 13.19% |
| DraftKings Bubble Screen (Single-Entry) |
$15 | $50,000 | 3888 | 3,888 | 100.0% | Playoffs | 14.26% |
| DraftKings Fair Catch (Single-Entry) |
$12 | $100,000 | 9,504 | 2,200 | 23.1% | Playoffs | 14.0% |
| DraftKings Double Spy (Single-Entry) |
$200 | $200,000 | 1080 | 162 | 15.0% | Playoffs | 7.41% |
| DraftKings Playmaker |
$555 | $1,000,000 | 1980 | 176 | 8.9% | Playoffs | 9.00% |
| DraftKings Luxury Box |
$2120 | $144,000 | 72 |
3 |
4.2% | Playoffs | 5.70% |
| DraftKings Touchdown Dance |
$25 | $500,000 | 23,328 | 3,000 | 12.9% | Playoffs | 16.6% |
| FFPC Best Ball Tournament |
$125 | $1,094,000 | 9072 | 2,599 | 28.6% | Playoffs | 3.53% |
| FFPC - Superflex Best Ball Tournament |
$35 | $163,875 | 4752 | 3,265 | 68.7% | Playoffs | 1.47% |
| BestBall10s BB10s Championship |
$10 | ? | 4500 | ? | ? | Total Points | ? |
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2022. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!