5 Reasons to Draft Travis Etienne

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Travis Etienne was set to be the offensive do-it-all in Urban Meyer’s Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense, but the former Clemson Tiger suffered a Lisfranc injury in the preseason, ending his rookie year before it began. His absence from an already thin, rebuilding roster led the Jaguars to a disastrous 3-14 season and 32nd-place offensive showing. Meyer was unceremoniously fired, and now Doug Pederson will try to bring respectability to the franchise.

Is Travis Etienne someone worth building your fantasy roster around? At his current ADP, Etienne is coming off the board in the fourth round of 12-team leagues. His RB19 draft position is perfectly in-line with our staff consensus ranking current. In other words, Etienne is worth his price, but he’s not a value play, either.

The Good News, Part 1…He’s Healthy

Last preseason in a late August game against the Saints, Etienne’s rookie year ended before it officially began. The first-rounder suffered a Lisfranc injury and had to watch from the sidelines as his college teammate – Trevor Lawrence – and his new Jaguars teammates struggled to move the ball in nearly every game script. But if there’s a silver lining to getting hurt in August, it’s that he’s had 11 months to recuperate and rehab. The recovery has gone well, and Etienne recently told local beat writers he has no limitations heading into training camp.

The Good News, Part 2…He’s Talented

Etienne was a four-year starter at Clemson and helped the Tigers to four consecutive ACC titles (35-1 in ACC play) and a national championship in 2018. While his teammate Trevor Lawrence was the 1st overall pick last year, it was Etienne who became the first Clemson Tiger since the 1970s to win ACC Player of the Year in consecutive seasons.

• 3x All-ACC
• 2x ACC Offensive Player of the Year (beating out Lawrence)
• 2x ACC Player of the Year
• 4,952 career rushing yards (All-time ACC record)
• 70 career rushing touchdowns (All-time ACC record)
• 78 career total touchdowns (All-time ACC record)
• 486 career points scored (All-time ACC record)
• 46 games with at least a touchdown (ACC and NCAA record)

The Good News, Part 3…He’s Versatile

While his rushing prowess and college accolades are well documented, it’s important to remember Etienne was lining up as a wide receiver during much of his rookie preseason. He was attending both running back and wide receiver meetings. The expectation was he wouldn’t merely be a safety valve for dump-off passes but would line up on the line of scrimmage and run a full route tree at times.

While we can’t be sure the new coaching staff has similar plans, Etienne’s skill set warrants a multi-faceted role. He caught 102 receptions at Clemson, and as a senior, his 48 receptions were the second-most of any FBS running back.

The Good News, Part 4…The Depth Chart is Thin

When the Jaguars drafted Etienne last year, fantasy managers’ hearts dropped because it meant two potential fantasy studs were instead going to eat into each other via a committee. James Robinson was the shocking breakout star in 2020, but a first-round pick in Etienne combined with a new coaching staff cast a shadow. As we now know, Etienne’s absence didn’t matter because Urban Meyer insisted on limiting Robinson’s touches in a committee with Carlos Hyde and Dare Ogunbowale. Unfortunately, Robinson tore his Achilles in Week 16, casting his role this year in serious doubt. While many point to Cam Akers’ miraculous recovery in Los Angeles as a blueprint, Akers remains an extreme outlier versus other athletes with Achilles injuries. At a minimum, Robinson isn’t going to be ready at the start of the season. But the reality is he may never be the same again.

Beyond Etienne and Robinson, the Jaguars running back depth chart looks suspect:

• Snoop Conner – Conner is a fifth-round rookie who only started two games as a collegian. A botched Combine and inexperience paint him more as a special-teams contributor than a threat to Etienne’s snaps
• Ryquell Armstead – Armstead was fifth in rushing attempts last year for the Jaguars; he’ll be lucky to make the 53-man roster
• Mekhi Sargent – Sargent bounced around the league and played for three teams last season. He’s the definition of an end-of-roster hopeful
• Nathan Cottrell – Cottrell is a special-teamer who’s been active for 12 of 33 games and only used as a part-time kickoff returner

The Good News, Part 5…Trevor Lawrence Chemistry

How often does a star collegiate quarterback get to play with his tailback in the NFL? We cannot minimize the importance of Etienne’s role in Lawrence’s success at Clemson. As we already noted, Etienne – not Lawrence – landed ACC Player of the Year honors in back-to-back seasons. While we can’t say Lawrence would’ve played well last season if Etienne stayed healthy, we can confidently say they’ll benefit from years of friendship, timing, and trust when they take the field together this season.

That’s a Lot of Good News, So Why Isn’t He a Table-Pounding Value?

There are a lot of reasons for excitement, as we’ve shown. But several offsetting concerns must be acknowledged.

The Bad News, Part 1…Doug Pederson Loves Committees

We’ve already shown the depth chart leaves much to be desired, but that’s never stopped Doug Pederson from spreading the ball around before. Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, Corey Clement, Jordan Howard, Darren Sproles, Josh Adams, Wendell Smallwood, LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi, and Ryan Mathews all had at least one season with 50+ carries for Pederson in five years as the Eagles head coach.

TABLE: Eagles Running Back Workload under Doug Pederson

• On average, the team’s No. 1 tailback played 42.4% of snaps and logged just 36.5% of rushing attempts
• Miles Sanders’ 40.7% of rushing attempts in 2019 was the only time in five years a tailback broke the 40% mark

The Bad News, Part 2…Doug Pederson May Not Be a Difference Maker

Doug Pederson is objectively a good head coach. He led the Eagles to their only Super Bowl victory, multiple NFC East division titles, three playoff appearances, and six playoff victories. Given the abject disaster the Jaguars endured last year with Urban Meyer, Pederson’s hire will feel like an instant success. But fantasy managers care less about overall team success than offensive dynamics. And it’s less clear whether Pederson is an offensive difference-maker, particularly for running backs.

TABLE: Eagles Offensive League Rankings under Doug Pederson, with and without Frank Reich

• The Eagles were league average (16th) in yards and slightly above league average (15th) in points scored under Pederson’s watch
• Unfortunately, they were below average (17th yards, 19th points) in the three seasons after Frank Reich left to become the Colts' head coach
• Philly fielded a top-10 rushing offense (8th attempts, 7th yards) with Frank Reich as offensive coordinator but fell to league average (17th attempts, 16th yards) after his departure

While Pederson appears a sure bet to improve on the Jaguars' 32nd-place finish last year, is a league-average offense something that will elevate the skill players into stars? Particularly when it also comes with a penchant for full-blown running back committees?

The Bad News, Part 3…The Offensive Line is Inferior

Fantasy managers understandably downplay offensive line play because it’s difficult to track statistically. But we all agree that good fantasy offenses rarely coincide with bad offensive lines. Unfortunately for Etienne, the Jaguars' offensive line looks problematic. Our own Matt Bitonti ranks the unit 27th, while Pro Football Focus places them at 26th.

The Bad News, Part 4…Trevor Lawrence Really Struggled Last Year

We’re not going to spend much time dissecting Trevor Lawrence’s performance, but it was abysmal. While his pedigree is unassailable, and the toxicity of Urban Meyer’s presence argues for a mulligan, history has not been kind to quarterbacks who struggled as much as Lawrence did in Year One.

• QBR (33.5) – 28th out of 31 qualifiers
• Passer Rating (71.9) – 30th out of 31
• Completion Rate (59.6%) – 29th out of 31
• Yards per Attempt (6.0) – 31st out of 31
• Touchdown Rate (2.0%) – 31st out of 31
• Interception Rate (2.4%) – 24th out of 31

The Bad News, Part 5…Running Backs on Bad Teams are a Risky Bet

How much better does the Jaguars' offense need to be for Etienne to justify a top-20 price tag? If Pederson can elevate the unit to league-average – matching what he did in Philadelphia – it’s enough for the talented tailback to thrive. But is asking a 32nd place unit (last year) to jump halfway up the league standings reasonable? If not, Etienne’s talent and opportunity won’t matter much because the game scripts will keep him from having the workload and scoring opportunities required of a fantasy star.

Projections

Final Thoughts

Travis Etienne lost his rookie season. In an odd way, that may have been for the best, given what a disastrous year the team endured under Urban Meyer’s watch. Hope springs eternal, and Doug Pederson and his staff should bring marked improvement in every phase of the game. But improving off a last-place ranking doesn’t necessarily mean fantasy stardom. There are significant red flags to consider with a bad offensive line, a quarterback coming off a bottom-five season, and a coach with a propensity for running back committees. But Etienne’s talent, versatility, and projected role are intriguing. At his current ADP, he is coming off the board exactly where we project and rank him. In other words, don’t avoid him in the third or fourth round if he fits your draft build, but don’t reach for him, either.