Prop Talk Week 11

Photo: USA Today Sports

An Update to this Article

We are actively working on a new tool which will compare Footballguys projections to several key prop areas. Thank you for bearing with us as we try to revamp this content.

Update to Prop Selection Methodology:

This season, we’ve tried to identify numbers that don’t make any level of sense, and then assume that they are a trap line. We are no longer going to be doing this. For example, last week Justin Fields’ rushing number was O/U 62.5 Rushing Yards after he had four games of 88, 82, 60, and 178 rushing yards. In a matchup against the Lions, the obvious play should have been that this rushing total was just too low and to take advantage of it, but instead did the exact opposite and assumed it was a trap.

Week 11 Plays

Russell Wilson Over 225.5 Passing Yards

The Raiders secondary is one of the worst in football this season as they have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season and have allowed over 225.5 passing yards in every game except one this season. Last week, Matt Ryan only got to 222 yards against this Raiders defense as the rushing attack of Jonathan Taylor dominated that game. Even still, this is a defense that allowed Russell Wilson to throw for 237 yards earlier this season, and while the Broncos are banged up with Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler going to miss this week, the matchup is simply too good for how low this number is this week.