Upgrades
LA Rams up 5
Put simply, the Rams' have finally found a lineup that works for them. Their performance in the surprise win over Las Vegas on Thursday Night Football wasn't good, but it was good enough. This group has had many injuries, with six offensive linemen still on the injured reserve. But the lineup (from L-R) of Ty Nsekhe, Matt Skura, Brian Allen, Coleman Shelton, and Rob Havenstein is no longer among the league's worst. This offensive line isn't special or even above average, but they are climbing out of the cellar. The Rams' offensive line ranks 24th before facing a vulnerable Green Bay defensive front on Monday Night Football.
Buffalo up 4
Left tackle Dion Dawkins returned from a high ankle sprain after missing only Week 13. Dawkins didn't play especially well against the New York Jets, giving up four penalties, three of which were holding. However, it's still a miraculous recovery for what is usually a multi-week rehab. In related news, right guard Ryan Bates missed Week 13 with an ankle injury and has missed practice this week. Greg Van Roten played 19 snaps last week and appears to be on track to start the Saturday night divisional game against Miami. It's conditional good news, especially compared to the rest of the league, and the Bills rise four spots to ninth this week.
Miami up 17
Left tackle Terron Armstead is listed with three separate injuries this week (toe, pectoral, and knee). He also doesn't practice midweek. Still, he returned in Week 14 and played 100 percent of the snaps in the loss against the Los Angeles Chargers. This is a tenuous situation, but Armstead is a tough pro and should be ready for the nationally televised game on Saturday Night. The drop-off between Armstead and his backup, Greg Little, is massive, and that's reflected in the considerable difference in the rankings with or without Armstead. In other possibly good news, Liam Eichenberg was cleared to practice before Week 14, and the team could make him a late activation this weekend. Eichenberg has been rehabbing from an MCL injury that occurred in Week 8 and this six week timeline feels about right. Eichenberg would presumably take reps at left guard for Robert Jones, but he's a versatile player who can fill in almost anywhere. To review, Armstead is in the model, but Eichenberg, still technically on IR as of this writing, is not. The Dolphins' offensive line ranks 14th this week before a huge game at Buffalo.
Downgrades
Detroit down 1
The Lions' offensive line has been among the league's best all season, and they still are. But they have a problem at right guard. With Evan Brown out multiple weeks with an ankle injury, Logan Stenberg got the start at Minnesota. The offense performed extremely well, and it's tough to downgrade this group after such a great performance, but Stenberg struggled at times and is the clear weak spot of the group. Right guard has been a rotating door since Halapoulivaati Vaitai (back) went down in the preseason. Vaitai isn't great or a Pro Bowler by any means, but had he not been injured, the Lions would be a top-three line, easy. With Brown likely out again against the New York Jets, Kayode Awoskia (ankle) and Tommy Kramer (back) unavailable, the right options are Stenberg, Dan Skipper, and newly signed Ross Pierschbacher. With Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams likely out with a calf injury, it's not as dire of a match-up. But still, the Lions' line has a modest downgrade, falling to fifth in the latest rankings.
Minnesota down 3
This is another tough downgrade, as the Vikings' line is playing well. At center, Garrett Bradbury missed Week 14 with a back injury. Austin Schlottmann played 100 percent of his snaps. Many fans of the team would call Schlottmann an upgrade. Bradbury was a former first-round pick but is unlikely to get his fifth-year option picked up after this season. He was limited in practice this week, but the team might be in the early stages of moving on from this player. After playing 91 percent of snaps against Detroit, left tackle Blake Brandel injured his knee late in the game and was placed on season-ending reserve. Oli Udoh played the last eight snaps. But the usual starter Christian Darrisaw has recovered from his concussion and is expected to return in Week 15. Although the news at tackle is good, the change at center forces the Vikings' line to take a small downgrade. The group ranks 20th before facing Indianapolis.
Las Vegas down 2
Left guard Alex Bars went down in the first quarter of the Thursday Night game loss against the Rams. John Simpson replaced Bars in the game, and the team cut Simpson this week. With Bars not practicing and Lester Cotton still on injured reserve, the left guard job will most likely go to the newly signed Netane Muti. The Raiders stole Muti from the Broncos' practice squad by offering him this starting job. The only other realistic option is another new signee, Hroniss Grasu. In other news, right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor (oblique, wrist) has been limited with two injuries in practice. Right guard Dylan Parham (knee) is also questionable for this week's game against New England. But I'm predicting Bars will miss this game while Eluemunor and Parham play. Lots of moving parts for the Raiders, who drop to 30th in the latest rankings.
Denver down 8
Left guard Dalton Risner missed last week's loss against Kansas City with a shoulder injury. Dalton has been limited in practice this week, but with the team at 3-10, there's no real urgency to rush their best lineman's rehab. Last week, Luke Wattenberg started the game, and Quinn Bailey also saw action at the spot. Netane Muti played 39 percent of the snaps, then left the team off the practice squad to join Las Vegas. The Broncos' line is limping to the finish of the season, falling to 31st before facing a relatively weak Arizona defensive front.
Situations of Note
These would generally be in "Other News," but I needed to call them separately. These three teams all have important veterans who are hurt but have a reputation for playing through injury. So, they've earned the trust to be included in the model. But we are late in the year, and these players' careers. I know this is an important week for everyone, so I have to include the disclaimer that those with significant exposure to these offenses watch these situations carefully; No one will truly know these key players' status until the gameday inactives are announced. These are the tough calls of the week, so to speak. I'm holding with these, but they all could be downgrades.
BAL - RG Kevin Zeitler missed the PIT game (knee) and has been limited in practice. The team could focus on resting the Pro Bowler to get him right for a long playoff run. Trystan Colon Castillo played 47 snaps, while Ben Cleveland played 14 in replacement last week and the coaches like both players. It is a divisional game against Cleveland, but it is also a short week with a Saturday kickoff. The Ravens' offensive line ranks 7th with Zeitler but 16th without him.
JAX - RG Brandon Scherff (abdomen) was held out of practice this week after playing 100 percent of the snaps vs TEN last week. The Jaguars' line ranks 23rd with Scherff but falls to 29th without him.
WAS - LG Andrew Norwell (shoulder) has been limited in practice coming out of the bye week. Trai Turner is also limited with a knee injury, and Sam Cosmi was a full participant with his ankle injury. It's not exactly clear who will be in the starting lineup this Sunday against the New York Giants, but Norwell will probably be there. The Commanders rank 18th with him and 23rd without.
Other News
ARZ - LG Rashaad Coward (chest) and RG Lecitus Smith (ankle) have been limited in practice. Last week vs NEP on MNF, Cody Ford played LG while Max Garcia played RG. These "starters" all pretty much grade the same. The Cards rank last, regardless.
ATL - LG Chuma Edoga (knee) did not practice. Colby Gossett will continue to start.
CHI - RT Larry Borom (knee) did not practice. Reily Reiff will likely start again, with Alex Leatherwood as another option.
DAL - Good news, LT Tyron Smith returned from injured reserve, looking in top shape. Bad news, RT Terence Steele tore his ACL and MCL and was placed on IR. A rotation of Josh Ball and Jason Peters appears to be the plan.
GBP - LT David Bakhtiari is still missing from practice after his appendectomy surgery. Zach Tom will likely get another start.
HOU - Kenyon Green (ankle) limited, Laremy Tunsil (illness) DNP, Justin McCray (hamstring) also DNP. McCray missed last week, while Green played 85 percent, Jimmy Morrissey played 10 snaps. Assuming Tunsil recovers, the Texans are a middle-of-the-road group.
LAC - Trey Pipkins (knee) is limited in practice, which is an improvement. He's not in the model but could return this week against Tennessee. Unfortunately, there's really not much of a grade difference between Pipkins and Foster Sarell.
NEP - With Isaiah Wynn (foot) not practicing and Yodney Cajuste (calf, back) limited. Conor McDermott looks likely to get another start at RT. McDermott played 100 percent vs ARZ and doesn't appear to be a huge downgrade from Cajuste.
NYJ - LT Duane Brown (shoulder) has been nursing his rotator cuff all season, while RT George Fant (knee) is also working through rehab. Brown plays 100 percent of snaps usually, but last week Mike Remmers played five snaps for Fant against Buffalo. For a group with so much investment, the Jets' offensive line has been lousy.
PHI - RT Lane Johnson (abdomen) has been limited in practice. Jack Driscoll took 12 snaps for Johnson in last week's blowout vs NYG. LG Landon Dickerson (back) is also limited but both he and Johnson are included in the model against Chicago. Although there's no way to predict this, the team could rest their starters, given the standings.
SEA - With Phil Haynes returning to action, he and Gabe Jackson rotated 50 percent each against CAR.
SFO - RG Spencer Burford and Daniel Brunskill rotated 50 percent each against TBB.
TBB - RT Tristan Wirfs appears to be out at least another week with his ankle injury. Josh Wells replaced.
TEN - RG Nate Davis (knee) and C Ben Jones (neck) were both limited this week in practice, but both played 100 percent vs JAX and are included in the model.
Full Rankings
Rank | Team | Old | Diff | Score | Overall | Run | Pass | Cohesion | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Philadelphia | 1 | 0 | 36.38 | A+ | A+ | A | 5.0 | |
2 | Kansas City | 2 | 0 | 35.38 | A+ | A | A+ | 5.0 | |
3 | Cleveland | 3 | 0 | 34.55 | A+ | A+ | A | 4.8 | |
4 | Indianapolis | 5 | 1 | 33.88 | A | A+ | A- | 5.0 | |
5 | Detroit | 4 | -1 | 33.85 | A | A+ | A- | 4.6 | RG Evan Brown (ankle) still out, Logan Stenberg replaced. |
6 | Cincinnati | 6 | 0 | 33.75 | A | A+ | A- | 5.0 | |
7 | Baltimore | 7 | 0 | 33.63 | A- | A | B+ | 5.0 | Assuming Kevin Zeitler (knee) plays. Trystan Colon-Castillo and Ben Cleveland replaced in Week 14. |
8 | San Francisco | 8 | 0 | 33.50 | A- | B+ | A | 5.0 | |
9 | Buffalo | 13 | 4 | 33.40 | A- | B | A- | 4.4 | LT Dion Dawkins returned Week 14 but RG Ryan Bates (ankle) missed it. Greg Van Roten replaced. |
10 | New Orleans | 9 | -1 | 32.93 | B+ | B+ | B+ | 4.8 | |
11 | Dallas | 11 | 0 | 32.85 | B+ | B | A- | 4.6 | |
12 | Carolina | 10 | -2 | 32.63 | B+ | A- | B | 5.0 | |
13 | New England | 12 | -1 | 32.48 | B+ | A- | B | 4.6 | |
14 | Miami | 31 | 17 | 32.38 | B | B+ | B- | 5.0 | LT Terron Armstead (toe, pectoral, knee) returned Week 14. |
15 | Houston | 14 | -1 | 32.28 | B | B- | B+ | 4.4 | |
16 | Atlanta | 15 | -1 | 32.23 | B | B | B | 4.6 | |
17 | Pittsburgh | 16 | -1 | 31.88 | B | B | B | 5.0 | |
18 | Washington | 19 | 1 | 31.63 | B- | B | C+ | 5.0 | Assuming LG Andrew Norwell (shoulder) plays. |
19 | LA Chargers | 18 | -1 | 31.55 | B- | B | C+ | 4.8 | |
20 | Minnesota | 17 | -3 | 31.48 | B- | B | C+ | 4.6 | LT Christian Darrisaw (concussion) returns but C Garrett Bradbury (back) missed Week 14, Austin Schlottmann replaced. |
21 | NY Giants | 20 | -1 | 31.43 | B- | B | C+ | 4.8 | |
22 | Green Bay | 21 | -1 | 31.25 | B- | C+ | B | 5.0 | |
23 | Jacksonville | 22 | -1 | 31.25 | B- | B | C+ | 5.0 | Assuming RG Brandon Scherff (abdomen) plays. |
24 | LA Rams | 29 | 5 | 31.13 | B- | B | C+ | 5.0 | Cohesion upgrade. |
25 | Seattle | 24 | -1 | 31.00 | C+ | C | B- | 5.0 | |
26 | Tampa Bay | 25 | -1 | 30.88 | C+ | B- | C | 5.0 | |
27 | Tennessee | 26 | -1 | 30.88 | C+ | B- | C | 5.0 | |
28 | NY Jets | 27 | -1 | 30.55 | C+ | B- | C | 4.8 | |
29 | Chicago | 30 | 1 | 30.35 | C | C+ | C- | 4.6 | |
30 | Las Vegas | 28 | -2 | 30.23 | C | C | C | 4.6 | LG Alex Bars (knee) likely out, Netane Muti and Hroniss Grasu to replace. |
31 | Denver | 23 | -8 | 29.85 | C | C+ | C- | 4.6 | LG Dalton Risner (shoulder) missed Week 14, Luke Wattenberg and Quinn Bailey replaced. |
32 | Arizona | 32 | 0 | 29.00 | C | C+ | C- | 4.0 |
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