The 2023 NFL free-agent class is loaded with big names at the skill positions. Here is a look at the Tier 1 players potentially on the move and the dynasty impact of their free-agent status.
Last year and in general with the biggest names in free agency, most returned to their incumbent team. For example, of the 22 Tier 1 names on my tracker across the skill positions, 13 stayed with their existing team, six changed teams (Ronald Jones II, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jarvis Landry, Evan Engram, O.J. Howard) to various levels of fanfare, and three were unsigned during the significant signing period (Will Fuller, Julio Jones, Rob Gronkowski). Smith-Schuster is the lone fantasy impact of the changing teams' subset, with Evan Engram second on the list. Only Julio Jones eventually signed off the third group and has provided minimal impact.
*aPPG is a proprietary measure of PPR PPG with some adjustment for missed games*
QUARTERBACKS
The quarterback market is far more dynamic with change than even a handful of years ago. From trades to releasing players to an influx of new college hopefuls, NFL teams are less likely to stand pat than ever before. The outright free agents include:
Tom Brady has turned into the most akin to NBA player control with his short contracts and sculpting his landing spot and surroundings. While 45 years old, he has eroded less than many of his peers firmly in their 30s. He is the outlier of outliers in terms of career arc. Until further notice, assume he is playing as opposed to the assumption of retirement. Tampa Bay does not have any notable skill position free agents around him, but finding greener (younger) pastures elsewhere is a distinct possibility. Brady is the biggest market mover if he were to change teams in the offseason. Using the guidepost that most of these bigger-name free agents will not change teams,
Lamar Jackson is most likely to stay in Baltimore, whether a franchise tag or a long-term deal.
Geno Smith is the wildcard. He is playing like a Tier 1 free agent but without the name cache and, obviously, a shorter track record of production especially pre-2022. If not big-name hunting with Brady or Jackson, Smith is the most intriguing outright free-agent quarterback with his high variance of market appeal around the NFL. As for dynasty, Brady and Smith are both in the Round 2 rookie pick zone of cost. Even one more top-12 season out of Brady validates the price point. Smith has a shot at crushing that valuation if he gains a longer-term contract in the offseason.
POTENTIAL CUTS-RESTRUCTURES
Carr is the most notable name here on a Raiders team underperforming expectations in 2022. Is it Carr's fault? Doubtful. Carr's 1.81 TD-INT Rate Ratio is well above his 1.26 career average and worlds above the NFL average of 1.10 in 2022. Carr would easily find another starting opportunity in 2023 should the Raiders move on. Tannehill is in a similar boat, outperforming his career mark (1.14) in 2022 (1.34). Wentz and Mariota are candidates to be recycled to backups and injury-away options in 2023. It is notable that Wentz is underachieving his career TD-INT Rate Ratio (1.02 vs. 1.42) while Mariota is slightly above his average (1.13 vs. 0.98).
RUNNING BACKS
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