Monday Showdown Wild Card Weekend

*Statistics cited are a blend of stats after Week 17 and Week 18 and rankings are reflective of all 32 teams*

Disclaimer

These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options, and in MME contests, there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.

Game Strategy

The Cowboys are 2.5-point favorites despite being on the road in Tampa Bay in this one. The Over/Under is set at 45.5 as two capable offenses will face off against two of the best defenses in the league. Before building out your roster, decide who you think is going to win the game and then go from there. I've got the Cowboys winning as their +125 point differential on the season is worlds better than Tampa Bay's -45 point differential. But Tom Brady is plenty capable of winning this one at home. Make sure your roster fits the narrative of how you've decided the game is going to play out.

Captain Consideration:

1. CeeDee Lamb
2. Dak Prescott
3. Tom Brady
4. Mike Evans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback

Tom Brady - Captain/Flex

Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich have not been good this season as they've been conservative but somehow Tom Brady still ranks third in passing yards per game (288.1) and 12th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5). Brady leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks seventh in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and seventh in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and somehow there's room for more passing success moving forward. Perhaps Week 17 was a sign of things to come when Brady threw for 432 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Panthers to win the NFC South. The Cowboys defense has been solid this season but they have struggled down the stretch against the pass. From Weeks 12-17, Dallas only ranked 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed. If Bowles and Leftwich get out of their own way and allow the offense to run through the passing game, Brady could have a big performance.

Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End

Chris Godwin - Flex Only

Chris Godwin ranks seventh in targets per game (9.6), sixth in catches per game (7), and 20th in receiving yards per game (69.1). He's the engine of the passing game and with Dallas' pass defense struggling of late, should turn his double-digit targets in this one into a big game. The issue for Godwin is the lack of touchdowns as he has just three touchdowns on the season. Considering his price he is a much better flex play than Captain play.

Mike Evans - Captain Only

Mike Evans put the Buccaneers passing offense in overdrive in Week 17 against the Panthers to win the NFC South by finally having a blowup game by catching 10 of 12 targets for 207 yards and 3 touchdowns. Evans is capable of these huge games because he's the beneficiary of go balls deep down the field from Brady. As already noted, Dallas' secondary is struggling as of late so another big game could be coming for Evans here. Evans does boast a significant amount of risk here based on just one strong performance.

Leonard Fournette - Flex

"Playoff Lenny" is back. While Rachaad White will remain involved, expect Tampa Bay to largely rely on Fournette now that it's playoff time. Fournette ranks 14th in the NFL in opportunities per game (18.1) and offers dual-threat upside as he caught 73 of 83 targets this season. The recommendation here though is to only play Fournette in a Tampa Bay win scenario as the Cowboys defense ranks fourth in Rush EPA Allowed.

Russell Gage - Flex

In a must-win game in Week 17, Russell Gage ran the fourth most routes on the team behind only Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Cade Otten. Gage ran a route on 60% of dropbacks in that one and as recently as Week 15, put up a big game by catching 8 of 12 targets for 59 yards and 2 touchdowns. As the third receiver for Tom Brady, Gage is a solid tournament play and stack with Brady who is capable of putting up the occasional big game.

Cade Otton - Flex

Cade Otton has taken over as Tampa Bay's starting tight end, making him a fun tournament play. Otton ran a route on 85% of dropbacks in Week 17 and saw a total of 13 targets between Weeks 16 and 17.

Ryan Succop - Flex

Ryan Succop attempted the second-most field goals (38) in the league this year. He makes sense, especially on FanDuel.

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback

Dak Prescott - Captain/Flex

Dak Prescott ranks 13th in passing yards per game (248.4) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (2) and leads a Cowboys offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play and fourth in Success Rate. He has a tough matchup against a Buccaneers defense that ranks fourth in EPA/Play Allowed, second in Success Rate, and fifth in Dropback EPA Allowed. But he should still have a solid game. Don't overreact to his poor performance in Week 18. Prescott threw 8 touchdowns between Weeks 15 and 17.

Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End

CeeDee Lamb - Captain/Flex

CeeDee Lamb is the man in Dallas' passing offense. He ranks 10th in targets per game (9.3), 10th in receptions per game (6.4), ninth in receiving yards per game (81.7), and seventh in receiving touchdowns (8). With everything on the line, it would be a surprise to not see Lamb targeted early and often.

Tony Pollard - Flex

Tony Pollard was out of sight and out of mind due to injury and then the Cowboys laid an egg last week. Don't let recency bias get the best of you here. Pollard is extremely talented and ranks 14th in total yards per game (90.6) and seventh in touchdowns per game (0.8). Expect the dual-threat Pollard to be involved early and often in this one. The matchup is a tough one though against a Buccaneers defense that ranks seventh in Rush EPA Allowed.

Ezekiel Elliott - Flex

Prior to Week 18, Ezekiel Elliott had scored at least one touchdown in nine straight games and he ranks 17th in the league in opportunities per game (17.4). The recommendation here though is to only play Elliott in a Dallas win scenario as the Buccaneers defense ranks seventh in Rush EPA Allowed.

Dalton Schultz - Flex

Dak Prescott consistently looks for Dalton Schultz in the red zone, which can lead to multi-touchdown games. Schultz had two of those this season and those are the kinds of performances that can help you take down a Showdown slate. And the Buccaneers defense allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game (11.9) to the tight end position this season.

Michael Gallup - Flex

Micahel Gallup is a tournament option as he's not always heavily involved in the passing game but he is always out there. Gallup ran a route on 93% of dropbacks in Week 17.

T.Y. Hilton - Flex

T.Y. Hilton is a fun tournament option. Hilton's playing time increased in three straight games to end the regular season and he still has the speed to catch balls deep downfield. He'll be low-owned.

Brett Maher - Flex

If you're rostering a kicker on a Showdown slate you want them to have the ability to make the long ones because those extra points for 40+ and 50+ yarders can be big. Brett Maher made nine kicks of 50+ yards this season. He has a chance to end up in the optimal, especially on FanDuel.