WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PREPARATION
9 THOUGHTS WORTH THINKING
I like to follow stats, trends, and matchups, as well as a little thing I like to call a hunch. These thoughts are based on those observations.
1. You can rely on Chris Moore as a flex option - The Houston Texans have a favorable schedule against the pass with trends in their favor for the wide receiver position as well. They will face Kansas City, be at Tennessee, and host Jacksonville in the next three weeks. All three yield a positive strength of schedule that can be exploited. Brandin Cooks is dealing with a calf strain, which can be tricky to recover from that also comes with a risk of re-injury. Nico Collins has a foot injury and may not be available himself in Week 15 or later. Chris Moore has assumed the primary receiving role and has blossomed as a result. He finished with 10 catches on 11 targets for 124 yards in the Week 14 loss to Dallas. If both Cooks and Collins are out, look for Moore to be a key participant in the offense once again, especially against a tough Kansas City team who have struggled against the pass lately, allowing 275.0 yards passing with 3.0 touchdown passes per game in the last two weeks.
2. The combo of Aaron Rodgers and Christian Watson should be beneficial for the fantasy playoffs - Green Bay has a favorable schedule against the pass with games against the Rams, at Miami, and Minnesota. With two games at Lambeau Field, the late December weather comes into play. How will it affect the outcome of those games? Aaron Rodgers has not had a 300-yard game since Week 14 of last year, but he has nine games this season with multiple touchdown passes. Christian Watson has exploded onto the scene over the last month with seven touchdowns since Week 10! In that span, he has only 15 receptions, but he and Rodgers are meshing well together. The upcoming matchups make this combo even more attractive for the playoff stretch.
3. If/when you make it past Week 15, consider targeting one of these defenses for Weeks 16 and 17 in this week's waiver claims:
- Who plays Houston? Since Week 10, the Texans are allowing 2.8 sacks, 1.6 interceptions, and 2.6 turnovers per game. Week 16 - at Tennessee. Week 17 - vs Jacksonville
- Who plays Indianapolis? Since Week 10, the Colts are allowing 2.8 sacks, 1.0 interceptions, and 2.3 turnovers per game. Week 16 - vs LA Chargers. Week 17 - at NY Giants.
- Who plays Chicago? Since Week 10, the Bears are allowing 2.3 sacks, 1.3 interceptions, and 1.5 turnovers per game. Week 16 - vs Buffalo. Week 17 - at Detroit.
- Who plays Denver? Since Week 10, the Broncos are allowing 4.0 sacks, 0.6 interceptions, and 1.0 turnovers per game. Week 16 - at LA Rams. Week 16 - at Kansas City
4. Feel comfortable in starting Matt Ryan in Week 15 - The matchup is an enticing one. A road game against the Vikings, who have allowed 330, 369, and 382 yards passing over the last three games to Jared Goff, Mike White, and Mac Jones, respectively. That's not exactly a murderer's row of quarterbacks, and yet, the Vikings are struggling to stop the pass. Matt Ryan has 32 pass attempts or more in three of the last four games. He is capable of putting up good passing stats this week. A growing trend over the last month is to exploit the Vikings' defense. The game script may tilt in Ryan's favor. If he can limit the turnovers and convert completions into points, he has a chance to finish among the top 10 for the week.
5. Isiah Pacheco has league-winner written all over him - If Isiah Pacheco is on your roster, he is most likely a flex option or injury replacement at running back. He has been a top-12 fantasy back since Week 11 and his upcoming schedule leans in his favor with matchups at Houston, vs Seattle, and vs Denver. The Chiefs are averaging 29.5 points per game and have the tools to win with the run or the pass. Houston has been a doormat for opposing rushing offenses this year, Seattle was recently torched by Carolina for over 200 yards rushing, and Denver was the Chiefs' opponent last week, where Pacheco rushed for 70 yards. The opportunity is there for him to thrive and be a dominant force when we need him the most.
6. Stay away from San Francisco - The 49ers are playing outstanding defense allowing only four touchdown passes in the last five games. No running back has exceeded 60 yards rushing against them all season. It doesn't take an expert to know that facing them is an uphill battle. Be wary of who you start when the opponent is San Francisco. Week 15 at Seattle (Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett). Week 16 Washington (Antonio Gibson, Brian Robinson, Terry McLaurin). Week 17 at Las Vegas (Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams).
7. Garrett Wilson for the win? Is Elijah Moore someone to count on? Garrett Wilson is the WR5 over the last three weeks with 19 receptions for 335 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is easily the top receiving threat on the Jets. Mike White has been a breath of fresh air for Wilson over the last three games. Hopefully, he will be able to play and be effective despite suffering a rib injury against Buffalo. The Jets' upcoming schedule is favorable for both White and the receiving corps, with two home games against Detroit and Jacksonville, followed by a road game at Seattle. Another nugget of information, consider Elijah Moore for Week 15 against Detroit - Moore is coming off a 6-60 game, but even better, Detroit has struggled against slot receivers, giving up 9-100 to Wan'Dale Robinson, 6-96-1 to Isaiah McKenzie, 6-104 to Christian Kirk, and last week, 5-38-1 to K.J. Osborn. Elijah Moore is next on the list.
8. Dallas Goedert is coming back just in time - Dallas Goedert (shoulder) is coming off Injured Reserve and is eligible to play in Week 15 against the Bears. The tight end position has been dominated by Travis Kelce this season, so any player who can rise to the occasion is a welcomed addition. Goedert was the TE3 up to Week 10, and his return is a huge boost to those who weathered the storm.
9. Go with your gut, but do your research - Jared Goff was a huge winner last week with a rosy matchup against the Vikings. This week he will face the Jets on the road who is the only team in the league that averages less than 215 passing yards allowed per game and less than 1.0 touchdown passes allowed per game. Could Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the Lions buck the trend? Yes, but history suggests it could be a struggle. If not for rushing yards and a rushing score, Josh Allen would've had a less-than-desirable game in Week 14 against New York.
Good luck this week. Here's hoping you all Survive and Advance.
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com