Welcome to the dynasty trading post, where optimizing strategy, roster construction, format, and player value oscillations are examined weekly in example and completed dynasty trades.
*All trades are Superflex unless stated otherwise*
QUARTERBACKS
Theme of the Week: Kenny Pickett, Russell Wilson
On opposite sides of the dynasty trading coin, Pickett has retained and even solidified his dynasty value despite two poor outings to start his career. Pickett was already operating from a skeptical profile start, slipping beyond the top half of Round 1 back in April. The odds drop historically beyond that zone, plus Pickett does not have a rushing upside profile exiting college. Pickett must succeed as a high-level NFL passer to hit for fantasy. Pickett, albeit on a small sample size, is off to a 19% INT rate on his first 65 NFL passes, easily the worst in the NFL and worse than any Round 1 or notable rookie quarterback in recent memory. Pickett being valued in the QB10-15 range offers an easy early exit as he is on the bust track.
Russell Wilson is moving in the opposite direction with easily his worst TD-INT Rate Ratio (0.91) of his career. Wilson's career mark, even including 2022, is an elite 1.78, behind only Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady, notably of active quarterbacks. Wilson has been an elite quarterback in his career and is having a career-low season. The missing link is his touchdown rate with 4.0% in 2022 compared to 9.3% for his career. Wilson is avoiding interceptions just as he always has in his career. Wilson is slipping to the QB15-18 range of the market, an optimal opportunity to buy shares in a dynasty portfolio.
- Key trade idea: Pickett, Rashod Bateman, 23 1st, 24 2nd, 25 1st, 25 2nd for Patrick Mahomes
Stepping up from a risky quarterback to Mahomes has almost no cost too high in today's landscape. At least three of those assets would need to hit big to potentially level the deal in future; plenty of risk for the team giving up Mahomes. Selling future 1sts makes sense if acquiring one of the select few quarterback assassins in premium formats.
- Key trade idea: Kenny Pickett, Curtis Samuel, 23 2nd for Tyreek Hill
The add-ons (Samuel, 2nd) are nominal to get an auto-start wide receiver like Hill. Pickett fits as a dynasty team's QB3 or QB4. Upgrading to a core-level receiver for ancillary elements is a strong trade construction.
- Key trade idea: Russell Wilson for 23 2nd, 23 2nd
Acquiring Wilson without including a future 1st is a value boon when acquiring one of the best quarterback profiles over the past decade.
- Key trade idea: Russell Wilson for Ryan Tannehill, 23 2nd, 23 3rd
Similar to the previous trade, Wilson's profile is superior to Tannehill's, who is at a tenuous moment of his Tennessee career as he sags below his NFL-average level TD-INT Rate Ratio thus far in 2022.
RUNNING BACKS
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