If You're Drafting this Weekend on Underdog

Photo: USA Today Sports

We will analyze the latest news, ADP movement, and context you need to prepare for your upcoming Underdog best ball drafts. The firehose of training camp news has been turned on, and the key to putting together strong teams is sifting through the deluge of information to get to the nuggets that matter.

Here are the topics we will discuss in-depth this week:

1. Making sense of the news out of Tampa Bay
2. The massive upside of Michael Thomas
3. The Buffalo wide receiver to target
4. The rise of Collins in Houston
5. Market ADP inefficiencies in Denver

Buccaneers Wide Receivers

There are a lot of moving pieces in the Tampa Bay receiving corps. First came news that Chris Godwin was cleared to participate in training camp. While the news initially caused Godwin’s stock to soar, there has been some further clarification that should temper enthusiasm slightly. While Godwin has been cleared to practice, it does not mean he is a full go or a lock for Week 1.

Rick believes the Bucs are more “wishful” than “hopeful” Chris Godwin is ready for Week 1. Said no camp PUP was a positive, though it was because they want him doing individual drills instead of working with a trainer. Overall, positive. Hurdles to clear still. https://t.co/3Zzg99tyMG

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) July 27, 2022

The safe approach is not to get too aggressive in targeting ahead of his current ADP (60.6), given that there is still a real risk he will not be back to full speed early in the season. However, if you are drafting in a larger-field tournament, it is worth remembering the following:

1. You are drafting for upside and should embrace ambitious situations where uncertainty allows you to get a high-end player later in the draft than he would normally be available.
2. There is a huge premium on late-season production after the initial 14-week first round completes, making players like Godwin, who should be peaking late in the year, especially valuable.

The other big news out of Tampa was the free agent signing of Julio Jones to a one-year deal worth $6M plus incentives. While Jones is likely to be the fourth receiver for the Buccaneers, that is a healthier deal than is typical for a backup. The financial value and Jones’ pedigree make clear that Tampa Bay at least believes there is potential for him to play a key role. Jones is the biggest Underdog riser this week, with his ADP going from 190 to 165. Expect him to continue to go earlier in drafts as we get closer to the season. If you are drafting this weekend, take advantage of the discount compared to what you will likely have to pay for him come September.

Fournette slims down

Sticking in Tampa Bay, there has been understandable concern about Fournette, given reports he had been up to almost 260 pounds during OTAs. While Fournette could probably stand to lose a few more pounds, the fact he showed up to training camp weighing in under 245 pounds and reportedly looking good should ease nerves.

Todd Bowles said he has no concerns about Leonard Fournette’s weight after the Bucs’ lead back showed up noticeable trimmer than mandatory minicamp https://t.co/JHoZztYrpf

— JennaLaineESPN (@JennaLaineESPN) July 27, 2022

If you are drafting this weekend, draft Fournette with confidence anywhere in the back half of the second round.

Michael Thomas stock up

The last time we saw a healthy Michael Thomas, he put together a record-setting season with 149 receptions for 1,725 yards and 9 touchdowns. In terms of upside, there is arguably nobody close to Thomas going outside of the Top 6 rounds of drafts. We have seen it. Granted, that monster 2019 season was long ago, and many are understandably wary of his health. However, early indications from New Orleans training camp are that Thomas is back and has a chance to be again the guy who dominated the NFL in 2019.

Michael Thomas running a 6-step speed cut. No breaking indicators until it happens.

Smooth out of the break and quickly flips his head to the ball to help pull his weight outside and down pic.twitter.com/LpYekL8OSl

— Route School (@RouteSchool) July 28, 2022

We know the potential reward here is massive. It is easy to argue that the risk is relatively low now we have seen him back on the field. He could have a future injury, like any other player, but from a skill perspective, Thomas is as proven a commodity as there is in the NFL. If things continue on the current track, Thomas will end up going in the fourth or fifth round of late drafts. If you are drafting this weekend, take advantage of the discount and make him a priority target ahead of his late-7th round ADP.

Buffalo receiver shake-up?

We know that Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are in line to be the top two receivers for the Bills. The assumption all offseason has been that Jamison Crowder was likely to step into the starting slot role vacated by Cole Beasley. However, early reports from camp have Isaiah McKenzie as the most likely candidate to fill that role. Not only has Crowder been sidelined by injury, but McKenzie has reportedly been a consistent playmaker, picking up right where he left off in 2020.

With all the evidence that @_IsaiahMcKenzie is currently way ahead in the #Bills slot WR battle, it’s time for @AaronQuinn716 to reevaluate some things. Luckily he’s willing to take an L when warranted.

Don’t miss Cover 1 Buffalo Podcast: https://t.co/j6HEm2a0QX@GregTompsett pic.twitter.com/BUwVqa8YW0

— Cover 1 (@Cover1) July 28, 2022

McKenzie is the second-biggest riser over the last week, with his ADP going from 204 to 193. Expect his rise to continue. He is still going off the board almost 50 picks later than Crowder, which is hard to justify based on the early news out of training camp. The market has already told us that Buffalo’s starting slot is worthy of a selection in the top 12 rounds. As the crowd slowly adjusts to the news that McKenzie is likely to occupy that slot, he stands out as an outstanding value four rounds later than Crowder for those drafting this weekend who have been keeping up on the news.