Cracking DraftKings Divisional Round

*Statistics cited are a blend of stats after Week 17 and Week 18, and rankings are reflective of all 32 teams*

Divisional Round Games

• Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 52.5 - Spread Chiefs -8.5
• New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 48.5 - Spread Eagles -7.5
• Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 48.5 - Spread Bills -5.5
• Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 45.5 - Spread 49ers -3.5

Jaguars at Chiefs

• Jaguars:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 10th
    • Dropback EPA: 9th
    • Rush EPA: 23rd
    • Points per game: 10th
    • Yards per game: 10th
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 20th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 24th
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 18th
    • Points per game allowed: 12th
    • Yards per game allowed: 24th
  • Point Differential Ranking: 7th (+54)
• Chiefs:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 1st
    • Dropback EPA: 1st
    • Rush EPA: 17th
    • Points per game: 1st
    • Yards per game: 1st
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 9th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 9th
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 11th
    • Points per game allowed: 16th
    • Yards per game allowed: 11th
  • Point Differential Ranking: 4th (+127)

The Chiefs are the class of the Divisional Round and are the odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl. They're 8.5-point home favorites this weekend and for good reason. Patrick Mahomes II ($8,000) will take aim at an average at best pass defense that allowed 331 passing yards and 4 pass touchdowns to Mahomes back in Week 10. He's the best quarterback on the slate. Travis Kelce ($7,700) led the Chiefs in targets (152), receptions (110), receiving yards (1,338), and receiving touchdowns (12) in the regular season. In fact, across the entire league, he ranked 11th in targets per game (9.1), ninth in catches per game (6.5), 10th in receiving yards per game (81.3), and second in receiving touchdowns (12). Kelce's upside is as high as any pass-catcher on the entire slate. With Mecole Hardman surprisingly still injured, the relevant wide receivers this weekend will be JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,100), Kadarius Toney ($4,100), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,800), and Justin Watson ($3,100). Here were their route run percentages back in Week 17: Smith-Schuster 73%, Toney 33%, Valdes-Scantling 87%, and Watson 33%. But I've buried the lead here. Jerick McKinnon ($6,000) has scored a touchdown in six straight games and nine total touchdowns over that stretch. Eight of those touchdowns have come through the air. McKinnon has become an integral part of the passing game paired with Mahomes, making him one of the best plays of the entire weekend. Prioritize McKinnon rather than Isiah Pacheco ($5,500) since Pacheco is one-dimensional in a way that doesn't correlate with how the Chiefs offense successfully functions.

This game has the highest Over/Under (52.5), so Trevor Lawrence ($6,000) and his pass-catchers certainly are in play as well. Christian Kirk ($6,000), Zay Jones ($4,700), and Evan Engram ($4,300) all caught 73 or more passes this season, and all found the end zone in the Wild Card Round. Travis Etienne ($6,400) is a full fade. Since he's not consistently utilized in the passing game, game script doesn't project to be favorable for him here.

Giants at Eagles

• Giants:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 12th
    • Dropback EPA: 12th
    • Rush EPA: 15th
    • Points per game: 15th
    • Yards per game: 18th
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 24th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 21st
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 24th
    • Points per game allowed: 17th
    • Yards per game allowed: 25th
  • Point Differential Ranking: 16th (-6)
• Eagles:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 3rd
    • Dropback EPA: 6th
    • Rush EPA: 1st
    • Points per game: 3rd
    • Yards per game: 3rd
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 2nd
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 1st
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 14th
    • Points per game allowed: 8th
    • Yards per game allowed: 2nd
  • Point Differential Ranking: 3rd (+133)

There's a whopping 139-point difference between the Eagles' and Giants' point differentials this season. New York played great last week as Brian Daboll game planned to have Daniel Jones ($5,800) attack an awful Vikings' secondary but it's important not to overreact to that performance since the Eagles defense won't allow a similar performance to occur on Saturday. Philadelphia has been one of the most impressive teams all season long and that will continue here with a win at home. That makes Saquon Barkley ($7,900) a much thinner play than the smash he was last week but he's absolutely still in consideration against an Eagles defense that is more vulnerable on the ground than they are the pass. Look for Daboll to game plan around this, putting the ball in Barkley's hands way more than he did a week ago. Remember, Barkley ranked third in the entire league in opportunities per game (23.2) in the regular season.

Isaiah Hodgins ($4,900), Richie James ($3,900), and Darius Slayton ($4,200) are all in play as they correlate with an Eagles victory thanks to the favorable passing game script they would play with. Hodgins is the preferred choice as he's been a revelation for this Giants' passing game ever since Brian Daboll brought him over from his former team, the Buffalo Bills. Hodgins has scored in six of his past seven games and caught 8 of 9 targets for 105 yards and 1 touchdown last week. But James is a solid post-hype play as well. Many liked James last week and were burned when he was outproduced by both Hodgins and Slayton. It's a nice time to roster him at low ownership.

Once again, I've buried the lead. This is the best possible time to roster Eagles in DFS tournaments. Because of Jalen Hurts' ($7,600) injury and Philadelphia's first-round bye, it's been over a month since we've seen this offensive juggernaut in action at full strength. That's been plenty of time for recency bias to creep in for many. The overall body of work, though, shows this is one of the best offenses in football, and they have a favorable matchup on tap at home against an average at best Giants defense. This is a good time to remind you from Weeks 1-17, Hurts ranked first in DraftKings, scoring (28) at the quarterback position. A.J. Brown ($7,600) is a man amongst boys on a weekly basis as he's one of the most athletic and imposing wide receivers in the entire league. Brown ranked 17th in targets per game (8.4), sixth in receiving yards per game (87.6), and third in receiving touchdowns (11) in the regular season. Meanwhile, DeVonta Smith ($7,200) is extremely talented in his own right and actually caught seven more passes than Brown this season in the same number of games. And then there's Dallas Goedert ($4,500), who is priced egregiously low despite playing on 100% of the offensive snaps in Week 18. All three are good plays. On the ground, Miles Sanders ($5,700) is priced shockingly low. In Week 14, Sanders put up 155 total yards and 2 touchdowns against this Giants team.

Bengals at Bills

• Bengals:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 5th
    • Dropback EPA: 4th
    • Rush EPA: 17th
    • Points per game: 7th
    • Yards per game: 8th
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 1st
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 2nd
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 6th
    • Points per game allowed: 6th
    • Yards per game allowed: 16th
  • Point Differential Ranking: 6th (+96)
• Bills:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 2nd
    • Dropback EPA: 2nd
    • Rush EPA: 9th
    • Points per game: 2nd
    • Yards per game: 2nd
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 10th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 18th
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 3rd
    • Points per game allowed: 2nd
    • Yards per game allowed: 6th
  • Point Differential Ranking: 2nd (+169)

This could be the game of the year. The Bengals were off to a hot start against the Bills a few weeks ago prior to the game being canceled. However, Cincinnati is now down three of its starting offensive linemen. Still, the Bengals are extremely live to win this game and in fact, are my pick to do so. The Over/Under set at 48.5 surprised me as I see it going over quite comfortably. Let's dive into how to attack my favorite game of the weekend.

Joe Burrow ($6,500) is a better real-life quarterback than Josh Allen ($7,800) and has the capability to not only control but also dominate a game at any time. From Weeks 1-17, Burrow trailed Allen in DraftKings fantasy points by only 2.4 per game. Burrow could easily outscore Allen in this one, and if he does, he'll be live to be the highest-scoring quarterback of the entire weekend. The Bengals missing three offensive line starters is a big deal for sure but it's only one piece of the puzzle. Remember, Buffalo will be without Von Miller, which reduces their ability to completely take advantage of Cincinnati's injuries on their front. And it's important to note that while the Bills defense is certainly a top-notch unit, they ranked 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed during the regular season. This is a favorable matchup for Burrow and he will take advantage.

JaMarr Chase ($7,800) ranked second in the league in targets per game (11) during the regular season and has seen target totals of 15, 13, 11, 13, and 12 over his past five games. He's a must-play. Tee Higgins ($5,800), Tyler Boyd ($4,000), and Hayden Hurst ($3,200) are all in play as secondary stack options with Burrow as well. Higgins is the preferred play since his ceiling is just as high as Chase's, and his $5,800 price tag is extremely disrespectful. Joe Mixon ($6,500) is in play as he ranked sixth in opportunities per game (20.7) and 11th in total yards per game (91.3) during the regular season. And at any time, Burrow's magic could equal multiple touchdowns for Mixon should he catch one or get multiple attempts inside the five-yard line.

The Bills are 5.5-point home favorites and led by the dual-threat Josh Allen. Allen threw for 4,283 yards and 35 touchdowns and ran for 762 yards and 7 touchdowns during the regular season. Alongside him, Stefon Diggs ($7,700) continues to flourish. Diggs ranked seventh in targets per game (9.6), seventh in receptions per game (6.7), and fifth in receiving yards per game (88.3) across the entire league in the regular season. Gabe Davis ($4,800) is a boom-or-bust play that runs all the routes and plays almost every snap, which puts him in play in tournaments on a weekly basis. However, the recommendation is to fade him this week since recency bias will cause his good game last week to increase his ownership. Dawson Knox ($3,800) has caught a touchdown in five straight games and is affordable enough to consider in all formats. Isaiah McKenzie ($3,300) returns this week which muddies the waters between him, Cole Beasley ($3,000), and Khalil Shakir ($3,000). They're all avoids. And on the ground, James Cook ($4,800) is cheaper than Devin Singletary ($5,200) despite being the more exciting play, as he's seen five more opportunities than Singletary (23 to 18) over the past two weeks.

Cowboys at 49ers

• Cowboys:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 6th
    • Dropback EPA: 7th
    • Rush EPA: 7th
    • Points per game: 4th
    • Yards per game: 11th
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 6th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 11th
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 4th
    • Points per game allowed: 5th
    • Yards per game allowed: 12th
  • Point Differential Ranking: 5th (+125)
• 49ers:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 4th
    • Dropback EPA: 3rd
    • Rush EPA: 4th
    • Points per game: 6th
    • Yards per game: 5th
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 3rd
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 3rd
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 2nd
    • Points per game allowed: 1st
    • Yards per game allowed: 1st
  • Point Differential Ranking: 1st (+173)

This is a fun one! The 49ers are 3.5-point home favorites, which means without the home-field advantage, Vegas sees this one as almost a pick-em. And I think that's right. The Cowboys are certainly live to win this one after Dak Prescott ($6,100) threw for 305 yards and 4 touchdowns while also adding a rushing score last week in the Wild Card Round against the Buccaneers. And that performance shouldn't have come as a big surprise to anyone! Prescott was good in the regular season as he ranked 13th in passing yards per game (248.4) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (2) and lead a Cowboys offense that ranked sixth in EPA/Play and fourth in Success Rate. Prescott's matchup will be much tougher this week, though, against one of the best defenses in football.

Despite the matchup, there are multiple ways for Prescott's receiving options to get home. One, Dallas' offense stays hot, and two, a favorable passing game script helps with the Cowboys playing from behind. CeeDee Lamb ($7,300) jumps out as a good tournament play this weekend after a disappointing performance last week. Take advantage of recency bias! Lamb ranked 10th in targets per game (9.3), 10th in receptions per game (6.4), ninth in receiving yards per game (81.7), and seventh in receiving touchdowns (8) in the regular season. Prescott consistently looks for Dalton Schultz ($4,200) in the red zone, which can lead to multi-touchdown games. Schultz had two of those in the regular season and just put up another one last week. Michael Gallup ($3,800) and T.Y. Hilton ($3,200) are secondary options for Prescott. This isn't the week to play them.

On the ground, expect a heavy dose of Tony Pollard ($6,100). Pollard saw 18 opportunities last week compared to Ezekiel Elliott's ($5,400) 15. Pollard has taken over as the lead back and is clearly a much more talented player. Pollard is an intriguing tournament play. Elliott is a complete fade.

For the second playoff week in a row, Christian McCaffrey ($8,000) is a flagship play. He was brought in by Kyle Shanahan during the season to help the 49ers win the Super Bowl this year. McCaffrey ranked fourth in the league in opportunities per game (21.2) during the regular season and saw 17 opportunities last week. Expect his workload to increase on Sunday. But we're not done on the ground just yet. Meanwhile, Elijah Mitchell ($4,700) is a total fade this week.

Brock Purdy ($5,400) is an incredible story. He averaged 219.6 passing yards and 2.2 pass touchdowns in his five starts in the regular season and followed that up with 332 passing yards, 3 pass touchdowns, and 1 rush touchdown in the Wild Card Round. Purdy has now thrown for two or more touchdown passes in seven straight games! But this isn't the week to play Purdy. He's a total fade. We want to get our 49ers exposure from the incredible skill position talent that surrounds Purdy. George Kittle ($5,700) is a great tournament play after a down game last week. He had caught a touchdown in four straight games and had seven touchdown receptions over that four-game span prior to last week. Deebo Samuel ($5,900) was a total smash tournament play last week, and we were all over that. Now, expect his ownership percentages to skyrocket. He's still in play since he's so vital to his team's success, but the better tournament pivot this week is Brandon Aiyuk ($5,000). Aiyuk caught 78 passes for 1,015 yards and 8 touchdowns in the regular season. He's a star.

Key Injuries

• Bengals LT Jonah Williams, RG Alex Cappa, RT Lael Collins all OUT - Upgrade Bengals' short passing game, which helps JaMarr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Hayden Hurst
• Mecole Hardman OUT - Upgrade Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore
• Jamal Agnew Questionable

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Patrick Mahomes II, Jerick McKinnon, and Travis Kelce Runback Options: Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, or Zay Jones
• Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase and either Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, or Hayden Hurst Runback Option: Stefon Diggs or Dawson Knox

Flag Plant Plays

• Patrick Mahomes II
• Joe Burrow
• JaMarr Chase
• Dallas Goedert