Week 1 of the preseason is in the books, which can only mean one thing; it’s time to adjust rankings. Everything in the NFL is a small sample size, giving each game much more weight. The preseason should be treated no differently than the regular season when making evaluations. While some instances are meant to be shrugged off, others require attention to varying degrees. Each preseason game is a data point that expresses how a player is perceived by their respective teams. The function of this article is to discuss which of those players are favored and are trending to deliver fantasy value.
QB Trey Lance, San Francisco
The next great rushing fantasy quarterback since Lamar Jackson has arrived in Trey Lance. Lance just put on a solid performance in Week 1 of the preseason, and the doubt of his status as the starter for the San Francisco 49ers has completely dissipated. He looked far more comfortable than he did last year. We saw him run the naked boot out of play action, scramble once, and even throw a 76-yard touchdown to rookie Danny Grey. We saw Lance as the starter in two games in 2021. Even though it was a small sample size, we saw his intended rushing utilization. In the two games Lance started, he had 16 and eight rush attempts. Lamar Jackson has averaged 10.6 rush attempts per game throughout his career. If 2021 was an indicator, Lance might surpass or match Jackson's averages.
In 12-team leagues, Lance is currently being drafted in the ninth round behind a Davante Adams'less Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, who's been dealing with an elbow injury during training camp. Lance should be drafted ahead of both Rodgers and Stafford for his rushing floor alone. The hype train will only pick up steam as the preseason continues.
WR Isaiah Mckenzie, Buffalo
A lot can be discerned about a player’s current or projected standing with a team by watching them play. But in the preseason, who isn't playing is just as telling and significant. Week 1 of the preseason is generally reserved for less experienced and raw players to prove their worth to their teams. They receive plenty of snaps to showcase their abilities while the more valuable players are afforded time to rest on the sidelines. This past week, Isaiah Mckenzie was one of those players afforded that luxury.
As recently as a month ago, few people would have projected McKenzie to be a lock for the WR3 spot on the Buffalo Bills offense. After the Bills signed veteran slot wide receiver Jamison Crowder this offseason, McKenzie was all but written off as a primary weapon this year. However, Crowder opened training camp injured. This allowed McKenzie to build on his already existing rapport with Josh Allen. McKenzie has predominantly served as a gadget player with the Bills, but his breakout game against the New England Patriots put the public on notice. In that game, he caught 11 of 12 targets (91.7 percent catch rate) for 125 yards and one touchdown. He was the primary focus for that game and a big reason why the Bills could secure a win against a divisional rival.
McKenzie is in line to operate in the role which Cole Beasley previously occupied. In that role, Beasley received over 100 targets in each of the last three years with the Buffalo Bills and served as a reliable WR2/WR3 in PPR formats. McKenzie's current ADP is in the 24th round. The pickings are slim for wide receivers receiving over 100 targets that late in drafts. Put a pin in McKenzie's name on draft day as he'll be a reliable weekly fantasy contributor.
RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City
As a seventh-round pick, the ascent that Isiah Pacheco has experienced up the Kansas City Chiefs' depth chart is rare. In several months, Pacheco has impressed his coaches enough to secure primary kick return duties and hurdle past several veteran running backs on the depth chart to the position of RB2. While there may have been fans of Pacheco coming out of college, the odds were slim that they would have projected a rise to RB2 as early as August. Yet, here we are.
During Week 1 of the preseason against the Chicago Bears, Pacheco started over Ronald Jones II, Jerick McKinnon, and Derrick Gore. Pacheco played exactly three snaps with the starters. For reference, that is three fewer snaps than starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire played with the starters. This past week should be the first positive data point of Pacheco's standing with the Chiefs.
Additionally, given Edwards-Helaire's injury history, Pacheco has a realistic shot at serving the Chiefs RB1 sometime this season. Reports out of camp have Pacheco playing out of the slot, and footage has surfaced of him catching deep passes out of the backfield from Patrick Mahomes II himself. Pacheco's success in camp has even begun to swirl rumors of Jones being traded or outright cut. The evidence can't be denied at this point. Pacheco is quickly becoming the real deal and is making a solid case to be a popular late-round running back draft selection. Keep tabs on him for the rest of the preseason and select him as early as the eleventh round if drafting today.
RB Dameon Pierce, Houston
Of all the rookie running backs in Week 1 of the preseason, Dameon Pierce was the clear standout. Per PFF, Pierce was the highest graded running back as he displayed agility, toughness, and no wasted movement. He performed as advertised.
The depth chart in front of Pierce consists of a 32-year-old Rex Burkhead and Marlon Mack, who's been recovering from an Achilles tear. Pierce is the prominent rising star in the Houston Texans backfield. Expect Pierce to sustain his upward trend as the preseason progresses. If he keeps this up, he'll challenge Marlon Mack for starting touches by Week 1 of the regular season and could steal the RB1 position on the Texans as soon as the first month of the regular season.
Pierce's ADP has seen a significant bump recently as he's currently going in the 10th round. The value is still ripe, though but will likely rise a full two rounds should he keep showing well.
RB Brian Robinson Jr, Washington
Don't look now, but Brian Robinson Jr is making a strong case for significant touches on the Washington Commanders. After Antonio Gibson fumbled during the Washington Commanders' Week 1 preseason game, he was pulled out of the game for Robinson. Robinson put his stamp on that drive and efficiently led the Washington Commanders down the field for a touchdown.
Antonio Gibson has had fumbling issues dating back to the 2021 season, and they instantly reappeared in Week 1 of the preseason. Recent reports out of camp had Gibson blocking for the Commanders' punt team and working with the third-string offense. Gibson has officially been put on notice by head coach Ron Rivera.
At the same time, a complete takeover of the backfield should not be expected by Robinson. However, it’s safe to say that we are at a juncture where this backfield is now a three-man committee between Gibson, Robinson, and J.D. McKissic.
Robinson's ADP is cheaper than Gibson's. Robinson should be drafted and stashed in all 12-team leagues. A path to starter touches exists for him in 2022.