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It’s hard to believe the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. After spending more than four months focusing on every bit of minutiae, every tidbit, every coach’s quote, and adjusting our rankings and projections, a lot can change from our original expectations.
Running Backs Who Changed My Mind
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) may be the No. 1 RB, again
For me, McCaffrey’s lack of durability and uncertainty at quarterback initially put him outside the first round. But a healthy, strong camp and the addition of Baker Mayfield have brought me to the consensus view on CMC. If healthy, no one has as much upside – particularly in PPR formats.
Saquon Barkley (NYG) is going to be a league-winner
The stars have aligned for Barkley; it just took me a few months to see it. He’s healthy, playing for a new contract, and the Giants' supporting cast is devoid of any other reliable playmakers. Before Barkley’s injuries, we saw how explosive he was, and his skill set makes him a rare back who can produce in any game script. Whether he’s rushing for 1,000 yards and catching 80 passes or rushing for 1,500 yards and scoring 10 goal-line touchdowns, he will be one of the league’s few true workhorses.
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) doesn’t have to worry about Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard is talented, but fears the Cowboys would morph into a 50/50 backfield were unfounded. Owner Jerry Jones has repeatedly emphasized the importance of Elliott remaining the centerpiece of the offense, and what Jones wants, Jones gets. Furthermore, Elliott is healthy after playing on a torn PCL in 2021. Finally, Pollard has been working with the receivers as a slot option to get on the field more because Elliott isn’t going to leave the field often.
Chase Edmonds (MIA) is one of the best values on the board
Mike McDaniel will implement the same offense Kyle Shanahan and his father Mike perfected over the years, which means a productive rushing attack. Early in the summer, I viewed Chase Edmonds as the likely starter, but the depth chart was packed with veterans, and it was hard to commit fully. But Edmonds was the shining star throughout camp, and I now believe he’ll be an every-down back as long as he stays healthy. Yet, his ADP remains buried alongside other committee backfields.
Damien Harris (NE) scares me, but not because of Rhamondre Stevenson
I’m not the only one who cooled on Damien Harris in recent months, but most skepticism comes from enthusiasm for teammate Rhamondre Stevenson. My reticence relates to general fears about the Patriots' offense, as Matt Patricia and Joe Judge are taking over for Josh McDaniels. Good luck with that.
Cam Akers (LAR) is being drafted too high
I had Akers as a fringe top-12 running back in May because he was the clear starter on one of the league’s top offenses. But that misrepresented the risk of his ever returning to pre-Achilles form. Yes, he played in the playoffs but wasn’t very good. And he hasn’t stood out in the summer, either. Expect Akers to be the No. 1, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be a committee. And Akers needs volume to offset the risk of his per-touch efficiency declines.
Breece Hall (NYJ) is overvalued
Hall has the talent to be an NFL star, but the Jets' offense is problematic. Unless you think Zach Wilson will evolve into a good starter – which I don’t – the Jets will be in many negative game scripts. On top of that, Michael Carter not only refused to cede a role but also looked better than Hall this summer and enters Week 1 atop the depth chart.
Dameon Pierce (HOU) is the guy in Houston
Fourth-round rookie running backs don’t have a high hit rate. And Pierce was a part-time player on a bad Florida team. Someone whose athletic pedigree never translated into huge collegiate stats. But historic probabilities don’t matter as much as real-life performance, and Pierce had a dominant rookie training camp. He was so good that the Texans cut veteran Marlon Mack and installed Pierce as the Week 1 starter.
Antonio Gibson (WAS) plummeted in value but is trending higher
Gibson trailed only Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, and Joe Mixon in touches last season and scored 10 touchdowns to boot. But his propensity for fumbling and a stunningly good camp from rookie Brian Robinson cast a pall on Gibson’s value. While Gibson has done nothing to win the coaches’ trust back, Robinson’s tragic shooting changes the calculus. Gibson went from an easy fade in recent weeks to someone who may be a value pick. It depends on whether he can show off in the early weeks and re-establish his place as the Commanders’ workhorse.
Rashaad Penny (SEA) is a sneaky value play in the mid-rounds
If you are a proponent of the Zero-RB or Hero-RB draft strategy, you must have mid-round running back targets who could become every-week options. Rashaad Penny fits the bill thanks to Ken Walker’s hernia surgery. While Penny did next to nothing for years, he was among the best fantasy backs after he got the starting role in 2021. Penny will get all the touches he can handle early in the year, so even if he breaks down again, you’ll be happy to have had his production in September.