Introduction
Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) is playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
This is a more difficult week than normal given that we only have one game to choose from. It is also made more difficult due to the amount of time and attention linebackers are able to spend working on just this one game. Thus, finding major value on any individual lines will be hard. However, there is still one way to potentially get some +EV action and that is taking advantage of game script correlations to try to find situations the odds that a certain game scenario plays out are higher than the payout multiplier. Those opportunities will be the focus this week.
Week 21 Review
- Last Week: -1
- Season Total: +3.2
Cooper Kupp’s big game turned around what would have been a rough week and helped up nearly break even. We enter the Super Bowl +3.2 units for the season and hope to end on a winning note.
Week 21 Picks
5:Bengals-Chiefs TDs (-1):
JaMarr Chase and Travis Kelce each found the end zone but we missed our 4X with Mixon being held scoreless
4: Run Games in KC: (-1)
We were on the right track here but again came up short. Joe Mixon went well over his rushing prop of 60.5 yards with 88. The Chiefs rushed for 139 yards but it was more Jerick McKinnon (65 yards) and less Clyde Edwards-Helaire (36 yards) than we needed, with Edwards-Helaire coming up 12 yards short.
3: Star WRs: (-1)
Both Tyreek Hill and JaMarr Chase had strong games but still came up short of their yardage totals.
2: Sneaky Unders: (-1)
This was a bad call, Deebo Samuel narrowly hit his receiving yard over when he broke loose for a 44-yard touchdown and Odell Beckham easily went over.
1: 49ers- Rams TDs (+3)
Cooper Kupp came through for us in a big way with two touchdowns and Deebo Samuel also found the end zone so we hit our over of 2.5 touchdowns even with Cam Akers getting shutout.
5: Better than 5%
