Why Tiers?
Most fantasy owners are used to drafting off a simple ranking of players, but that can mask underlying differences that exist between players. For example, two players may be ranked right next to each other on a cheatsheet but there could be a wide gap in the expected production for them. In that case, you would probably want to draft the higher-ranked player a full-round earlier than the lower-ranked player. Similarly, there may be a large group of players with very similar projections that are bunched together on a ranking sheet. It may seem that a player ranked 10th is much more valuable than a player ranked 15th, but if only a few projected points separate them then they are roughly equivalent in value. Rather than force yourself to pick one, it may be best to focus on another position and then come back to this position in the next round since you’re likely to get a player of nearly identical value.
Grouping players into distinct tiers or buckets provides additional context that allows a drafter to make more informed decisions. The projections we offer at Footballguys also help a lot in this regard, but those are still static projections that may not fully indicate the range of likely outcomes for a player. For example, two players may be projected with similar numbers but one may have significantly more upside and/or a higher floor than the other. Those types of risk vs reward decisions are inherent in any fantasy draft. While drafting the safe players will typically help you build a solid team, you often need to take some chances and hit on some players who significantly exceed their preseason expectations to win.
Rankings are typically helpful in ordering players within the same position group, but tiers can help you figure out which position to take as you move through a draft. If you see a large group of linebackers that are all capable of putting up LB1-type numbers but only one defensive lineman likely to put up elite numbers, it’s wise to grab the lineman and assume at least one of the linebackers will be there for your next pick. This helps you maximize the value of your picks, and is a strategy that all strong fantasy players likely use to some extent.
How to Use the Tiers
- These tiers are based on expected performance for the 2019 season in a balanced scoring system. While dynasty owners always need to consider long-term outcomes to some extent, the upcoming season is most critical for player value.
- Positional classifications can differ depending on what your league-hosting website uses. For consistency, I will rely on the official Footballguys player classifications. For the most part, these should match up well with the major sources that exist online but there could be differences. Assigning edge rushers to linebacker or defensive end is the main area that causes issues here as the classification can have a huge impact on fantasy value.
- Look for an asterisk (*) next to players that have added value in big-play scoring systems. There is a lot of scoring variability that exists among IDP leagues, so if your league places added value on big plays (i.e., sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles, etc.), this information should help you identify some key targets in each tier.
SAFETIES TIER 1: THE ELITE
- Budda Baker, ARI
- Jordan Poyer, BUF *
- Jamal Adams, SEA *
- Jeremy Chinn, CAR
- Derwin James, LAC *
- Jessie Bates III, CIN
While defensive backs are plentiful and therefore not nearly as valuable as linebackers and defensive linemen, these are the players who clearly stand out from the rest at the position. They should all post 75+ solo tackles while adding in enough big plays to make them nearly as productive as some of the 2nd tier of linebackers. Given the depth that exists at defensive back, most will wait until the middle or late portions of the draft to fill out these roster spots. If you do take a safety early, however, these are likely the players you’ll want to target. In tackle-heavy scoring systems, Budda Baker may warrant an earlier selection while Jamal Adams and Jordan Poyer will get a boost in big-play leagues.
SAFETIES TIER 2: LOW-END #1 OPTIONS
- Kevin Byard, TEN *
- Justin Simmons, DEN *
- Vonn Bell, CIN
- Johnathan Abram, LV
- Harrison Smith, MIN *
- John Johnson III, CLE
- Marcus Maye, NYJ
- Malcolm Jenkins, NO
- Antoine Winfield, TB *
This group has more variability than the players in the elite tier, which gives them a lower floor but they can likely be relied upon as every-week starters. All should finish with 65+ solo tackles with a number of big plays that can lead to several high-scoring weeks.
SAFETIES TIER 3: SOLID #2
- Kamren Curl, WAS *
- Landon Collins, WAS
- Taylor Rapp, LAR
- Adrian Amos, GB
- Jabrill Peppers, NYG *
- Khari Willis, IND
- Eddie Jackson, CHI *
- Logan Ryan, NYG
- Minkah Fitzpatrick, PIT *
- Jordan Fuller, LAR *
- Darnell Savage, GB *
- Donovan Wilson, DAL *
- Chuck Clark, BAL
- Daniel Sorenson, KC
The depth at the position becomes quickly apparent as you move into this tier as there isn’t much separation among these players in terms of their expected production. There are a number of free safeties in this group (Eddie Jackson, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Darnell Savage) who won’t play up in the box very often so their solo tackle numbers may suffer but they offset that with interceptions. The tier also includes some excellent run stoppers (Landon Collins, Adrian Amos, Khari Willis) who will be more reliable from week to week but may not put up many huge games due to some of their limitations in coverage.
SAFETIES TIER 4: TOP BACKUPS
- Tracy Walker, DET
- Kareem Jackson, DEN
- Tyrann Mathieu, KC *
- Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, NO
- Adrian Phillips, NE
- Jordan Whitehead, TB *
- Eric Rowe, MIA
- Rayshawn Jenkins, JAX
- Rodney McLeod, PHI
- Xavier McKinney, NYG
- Anthony Harris, PHI
- Trevon Moehrig, LV
- Ronnie Harrison, CLE
- Justin Reid, HOU
- Quandre Diggs, SEA *
With the assumption that most leagues start two safeties, you should aim to get at least two and preferably three players from the tiers above. If you miss out, however, there’s no need to panic as you can still build solid depth with players from this tier. These players will be more matchup-dependent and carry more risk but will likely be startable for much of the year. Some players to target here that could have added upside are younger players like Tracy Walker, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, or Jordan Whitehead. If you are looking for a safer option, consider veterans like Adrian Phillips, Kareem Jackson, or Tyrann Mathieu.
CORNERBACKS TIER 1: THE ELITE
- Marlon Humphrey, BAL *
- Kenny Moore II, IND
- LJarius Sneed, KC *
- Carlton Davis, TB
- Trevon Diggs, DAL *
Cornerback is an extremely deep position and there tends to be a lot of variability from year to year as their value depends heavily on interceptions that are difficult to predict. This places added emphasis on corners who post more consistent tackle numbers since that added reliability allows you to start them just about every week without looking at matchups. If your league combines cornerbacks and safeties together, the top corners are still probably no higher than tier 3 so you’ll probably want to load up on safeties first.
Marlon Humphrey and Kenny Moore are the top options this year thanks to proven track records and a strong supporting cast that makes it hard for opponents to avoid them. The other three are young ascending talents with the potential to post 60+ solo tackles and 4+ interceptions.
CORNERBACKS TIER 2: STRONG STARTERS
- Taron Johnson, BUF
- Janoris Jenkins, TEN
- A.J. Terrell, ATL
- Kevin King, GB
- TreDavious White, BUF *
- Marcus Peters, BAL *
- Xavien Howard, MIA *
- D.J. Reed, SEA
- James Bradberry, NYG
- Denzel Ward, CLE *
- Jaylon Johnson, CHI
- J.C. Jackson, NE *
- Mike Hilton, CIN
- Jaycee Horn, CAR
- Jeff Odukah, DET
This group makes up the bulk of the remaining players who should be considered safe to start every week without worrying too much about the matchups. While some corners on this list such as TreDavious White, James Bradberry or Denzel Ward can benefit from taking on the opposing team’s #1 wide receiver each week, other shutdown corners don’t see enough targets to make a consistent fantasy impact. Therefore, most of this list is made up of players who are good enough to hold onto their starting jobs but not quite good enough that quarterbacks will avoid throwing in their direction. It also helps if they are aggressive and active in run support, which can boost their tackle numbers.
CORNERBACKS TIER 3: TOP BACKUPS
- Troy Hill, CLE
- Michael Davis, LAC
- Darious Williams, LAR
- Kyle Fuller, DEN
- Bryce Hall, NYJ
- Jaire Alexander, GB
- Shaquill Griffin, JAX
- Sean Murphy-Bunting, TB
- Marshon Lattimore, NO
- Trayvon Mullen, LV
- Joe Haden, PIT
- Donte Jackson, CAR
- Kendall Fuller, WAS
- Byron Murphy, ARI
- Bashaud Breeland, MIN
- Adoree Jackson, NYG
These players stand out slightly among the large group of backup cornerbacks, but the reality is they aren’t a whole lot different than the players who will be available on the waiver wire throughout the season. Many astute fantasy owners are comfortable picking up waiver wire options to start each week based on the most favorable matchups. Consider these players as matchup-dependent with a chance to emerge as every-week starters. Pay extra close attention for any rookies who earn starting jobs as they figure to be picked on by opposing quarterbacks and will get a longer leash from their coaches while they develop.
