Chris Godwin Will Thrive in 2021

Photo: USA Today Sports

Cliches can plague fantasy football analysis. We often use worn-out phrases to pump up or tear down a player. Proclamations like “It’s a high volume situation” or “He has a nose for the end zone” are often thrown around to explain things without using actual statistics. The worst of these cliches is “There are too many mouths to feed,” and you are going to hear that a lot when talking about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receivers in 2021.

With arguably the best wide receiver corps in the league, it's a mystery why so many fantasy analysts look to downplay their respective values. Mike Evans is too touchdown-dependent. Antonio Brown is too volatile. Chris Godwin needs target volume, and there are too many mouths to feed. All of these criticisms have a kernel of truth, but they overstate the risks. Importantly, Godwin has the least to be worried about. If the volume is the worry, it's time to stop worrying.

A Look Back at 2020

Let’s start with everyone’s newest favorite cliche: 2020 was a weird year. If you need evidence, look no further than Tom Brady suiting up in a Buccaneers’ uniform. Upon his arrival in Tampa Bay, the buzz was palpable. Chris Godwin was the primary beneficiary of the buzz because of the high-volume role Tom Brady’s slot receivers always played in New England. While it didn’t quite play out that way, primarily due to Godwin missing four games, the season was far from disappointing.

To start, Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl. You can’t ever call that a disappointment. For fantasy purposes, Godwin played well in his 12 active games. He was a top-24 receiver (WR2) or better in half of his games and only missed the weekly Top 36 three times. He averaged almost 16 fantasy points per game, good enough for a top-15 ranking. It's notable Godwin maintained his fantasy value after Antonio Brown joined the team in Week 9.

Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Godwin played eight games together during the 2020 regular season. Here is a breakdown of their totals and per-game stats:

These numbers alone do nothing to hurt Godwin’s fantasy value, and over a full season, all three would’ve been top-24 fantasy receivers (WR2s), or better. We must always use caution when extrapolating small sample sizes; eight games isn't necessarily predictive. But playoff games matter, too, and those skewed decidedly in Godwin's favor. In three playoff games together, Godwin was targeted eight times per game, while Evans and Brown each dropped to five targets. When the season was on the line, Tom Brady favored Godwin.

How This Translates to 2021

Before we get into what last year’s numbers mean for this year, let’s talk about why you should be confident in Tampa Bay’s passing volume. For starters, this is the first time we’ll see a 17-game season in the NFL, that will naturally inflate the passing numbers. It also helps that with Bruce Arians as head coach over the last two seasons, the Buccaneers have averaged 39 pass attempts per game, the second-most in the league over that span. There will be plenty of work to go around. So, if you take the 11 games these three receivers played together and project them over a 17-game season, this is what you would end up with:

There isn’t a fantasy manager in the world that would be unhappy with these stats. Evans gets his touchdowns, Brown is well-rounded, and Godwin is peppered with targets. All three will easily exceed 100 targets if they stay healthy.

While these projections are fair, what if the playoff distribution is a better model for what to expect in 2021? At eight targets per game, Godwin projects to 136 targets and could end up leading this team by a wide margin. This would easily put him back in the top-12 tier he attained in 2019.

Godwin as a WR1

It's easy to forget the Buccaneers played football before Tom Brady arrived. Back in Bruce Arians’ first year with the team and with Jameis Winston at quarterback, Godwin gave us a glimpse of his potential. In 2019, Winston was tied for 1st in attempts of all quarterbacks, led the league in passing yardage, and was 2nd in passing touchdowns. Godwin turned 120 targets into 86 receptions, 1,333 yards, and nine touchdowns. Despite only playing 14 games, he finished as the No. 2 overall fantasy receiver, behind only Michael Thomas’ record-breaking season. Godwin isn’t just capable of being a top-12 receiver, he could be No. 1 overall receiver.

A lot needs to fall the right way for Chris Godwin to finish a top-five receiver in 2021, but it’s far from impossible. Tom Brady has shown no signs of slowing down, and it certainly doesn’t seem like Bruce Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich plan to throw less after last year's championship run. Godwin can be had acquired as a No. 2 receiver in the fourth round of most fantasy drafts, and that screams value. The volume is going to be there and, despite the many mouths, Chris Godwin is going to get a big slice of the pie.

2021 Projections

The consensus fall in line with Godwin's 2020 pace almost perfectly. My own projections see him playing to the top of his potential but with fewer touchdowns. It would be hard to see Brady throwing as many as he did in 2020, but it's not out of the question. Overall, Godwin is a compelling target.