Preseason Projection Adjustment: August 21st Edition

Photo: USA Today Sports

We dropped our first set of projections a day after the NFL draft concluded, and have updated them countless times since. But as we enter the heart of the preseason, rankings and projections start to move more decisively with greater velocity and so this year I'll be providing a weekly look into how my projections are changing. A few things to keep in mind:

• This is a recap of a week's worth of changes, but we update projections in real time and you can always find live, up-to-date numbers here
• After 20+ years of providing rankings and projections, I've found that incremental movements are generally better than wholesale, reactionary moves
• We've had another week with, thankfully, very few substantive injuries
• Many of the tweaks below pertain to players who aren't likely to be drafted in 10- or 12-team redraft leagues, but I felt it was important to show you the depth we provide in our analysis

Quarterback Ascenders

These situations aren't pertinent in shallower leagues, outside of Trey Lance who could be a top-12 fantasy quarterback once he's under center. Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater have each had ups and downs this summer, but Lock appears to have the edge. For now. Tyrod Taylor has been the projected starter since the start of training camp, but I bumped him up a few more games to reflect the declining odds either DeShaun Watson plays in Houston or Davis Mills gets the nod as the heir apparent. Neither seems likely right.

Quarterback Decliners

A few meaningful adjustments for those in Superflex leagues. Watson's situation remains a guessing game, but with the criminal aspect of his situation ramping, it's harder to buy into a scenario where he plays more than a few games for either the Texans or another team in a mid-season trade after the legal issues clear up. The 49ers maintain Garoppolo is in line to start, but he's been substantively worse than Lance in practices. Bridgewater and Lock is still a coin toss and could ping pong back Bridgewater's way in the coming weeks. But if you're drafting right now, the tea leaves point to Lock as the starter. Finally, Daniel Jones and the Giants just give off an aura of negativity. It seems far more likely Jones loses claim to the title of "NFL starter" this season than earns his way into a long-term contract as the Giants cornerstone.

Running Back Ascenders

Miles Sanders is the big name here. Nick Sirianni's declaration that Sanders wouldn't play much at all in the preseason because he has nothing to prove calms fears of a committee approach. Lindsay is in the hunt for the starting role, although the situation and depth at the position still make him a mid-round option. Ty Johnson is atop the Jets depth chart, which may not mean much a few weeks into the season but needs to be acknowledged. Giovani Bernard isn't just a No. 3 in Tampa Bay, he appears to have earned the third-down receiving role, at a minimum.

Running Back Decliners

Some significant adjustments here for early rounders. Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffered an ankle injury in this week's preseason game, but at press time we don't know the severity. He could bounce back up with a good diagnosis or be reduced further. Myles Gaskin's lack of playing time with the Dolphins' first team last week is a serious concern; it looks like a committee with Malcolm Brown. Saquon Barkley and DAndre Swift don't fall much but I took touchdowns off their projections over fear both offenses will struggle to get into the red zone. The Buccaneers' situation is murkier than hoped, as Giovani Bernard has worked his way into the rotation. A three-back committee is fantasy Kryptonite.

Tight End Ascenders

Tight End Descenders

A quiet week at the tight end position. The Colts' committee gets a bit murkier with rookie Kylen Granson factoring into the equation. Goedert is a risky bet as a top-10 tight end given how well Zach Ertz looks and the Eagles' willingness to keep the veteran in the fold. If Ertz gets traded, Goedert vaults back into fantasy starter consideration, but right now he's being overdrafted.

Wide Receiver Ascenders

Mecole Hardman is the headliner here. The drumbeats of improvement are turning into a full orchestra and he should be viewed as a high-end WR3 with upside. Ja'Marr Chase dropped all three of his targets in the second preseason game, which may mean nothing but Tyler Boyd's role should be more secure than feared. Odell Beckham still isn't doing much as he recovers from an ACL tear, but his and the coaches' tone is optimistic. CeeDee Lamb is effectively interchangeable with Amari Cooper and could overtake his teammate given Cooper's health. Jerry Jeudy is having a great summer while teammate Courtland Sutton doesn't yet seem comfortable coming back from his injury. The biggest move of the week is Quez Watkins, who keeps rising and now seems poised to start for the Eagles barring a change-of-momentum in the final two weeks of the preseason.

Wide Receiver Descenders

I never considered myself particularly high on Marquise Brown, but somehow I was a high-end outlier versus my peers; that needed to be addressed. You'll note slight reductions to JaMarr Chase and Amari Cooper, but don't overreact. Michael Thomas' situation is difficult to handicap, but it seemed prudent to come down another game (10 games played). A pair of young receivers -- Jalen Reagor and Kadarius Toney -- are getting far more negative beat reports than positive.

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at wood@footballguys.com.

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