"You can't win your draft in the first round, but you can lose it."
Ancient Fantasy Proverb
If you doubt this saying, you probably didn't select David Johnson in the first round last year. Or Todd Gurley. Or James Conner. Or Odell Beckham.
While it's always possible to recover, taking a bust in Round 1 can make it extremely difficult to win your league. We want your path to be as easy as possible. So, in an effort to help avoid these season-derailing players in 2020, we asked the Footballguys staff to try to identify potential busts in your upcoming draft.
Jason Wood
History tells us a good chunk of the consensus Top 12 will bust, and this year the COVID-19 pandemic will add volatility as players are likely to miss time (or key supporting players such as starting offensive linemen) not only because of the normal litany of injuries but now because of positive Covid-19 diagnoses.
But since we cannot predict injuries or viral infections, I think there are a few players on this list that have circumstances worth worrying about. Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon want new contracts and are talking good games right now vis-a-vis a willingness to hold out. The new CBA makes holding out a riskier proposition, but not an impossibility. Cook's injury history is beyond alarming, having had three major knee injuries in his life already, so he's an easy fade at his current price. Multiple knee injuries combined with an unhappy contract status in the pandemic era give Cook too many ways to underperform. Mixon is less concerning, although I do find myself passing on him in the first round without abandon.
Matt Waldman
I like the Cook and Mixon calls by Jason. I will go with Julio Jones.
A great player who has fought through foot and ankle injuries in recent years, Jones frequently leaves the field 1-2 times a game for a series, two series, a quarter, or even a half. These exits are clearly injury-related because he's limping, walking gingerly, or doubled over and wincing in pain. Despite these injuries, Jones manages to deliver a game's worth of strong fantasy production in whatever time he's on the field. At some point, age, wear, and tear will catch up with him, and those series, quarters, and halves will become, games, weeks, and months away from the field.
Dan Hindery
Looking at the first-round options this season, there is not a high-risk player in the bunch in terms of on the field impact. These guys are all proven, elite talents locked into fantasy-friendly roles. The biggest risk is availability. From that point of view, there are three running backs from the class of 2017 who stand out as risky draft choices due to the risk of an extended holdout.
Dalvin Cook is already holding out. As a source told Adam Schefter in June, "he's out. Without a reasonable extension, he will not be showing up for camp or beyond." Jay Glazer reported this week that he thinks the Vikings will be able to get an extension done, noting "they absolutely love him there." This feels like a deal that should get done at some point because of how much the coaching staff likes Cook and how important he is to the offense. However, the market for big-dollar running backs has been a minefield for teams in recent years, and Cook's idea of a "reasonable extension" may be different from what the Vikings front office views as reasonable. The risk here is obvious with Cook already holding out.
Alvin Kamara does not get as much attention as a candidate for a lengthy holdout, but he should. Kamara turns 25-years old later this month and is set to earn just $2.1M this season. With three Pro Bowl appearances under his belt and the value Kamara adds as a pass-catcher, he has a great case to be one of the highest-paid backs in the league. The Saints are tight up against the cap and have stated that offensive lineman Ryan Ramczyk is their top priority for an extension. This one could get ugly and the potential for a holdout means you should, at the very least, be breaking ties against Kamara in fantasy drafts.
Joe Mixon is also vastly underpaid, making just $1.2M this year. The Athletic's Paul Dehner Jr. said the "organization is prepared for a holdout if they can't agree to a long-term deal with Mixon." Early in the offseason, it seemed likely a deal would get done. The Bengals love Mixon and value him highly. However, the Cincinnati front office has seemed hesitant to pull the trigger on any long-term extensions this summer due to fears of what the salary cap might look like next season and beyond due to lost revenue in 2020 due to the coronavirus.
Jeff Pasquino
I'm going to put Davante Adams out there as a strong possibility. Wide receivers are deep, so it will take a strong argument for me to take one that early. Adams has little to no help as far as occupying the rest of the secondary, so double coverage should be the norm this year for Adams. Green Bay's passing game has diminished of late as well, which Aaron Rodgers is not thrilled with either - but no matter how it happens, the Packers are more of a run game first offense now. Adams is still an elite talent, but there are better options for the next several rounds that can produce similarly while top running backs are hard to come by. I seriously doubt I would take Adams in the first round for these reasons.
Devin Knotts
Derrick Henry is the guy that I'm completely avoiding this season. First and foremost he has contract issues that the two sides do not appear to be close on according to Terry McCormick of TitanInsider.com. The perceived value of Henry is the volume as he had 303 carries last season, but one has to wonder how much he is going to carry the ball without a long-term commitment from the team. Henry had over 400 touches in his final season at Alabama and is a running back who gets better throughout the game after wearing down the defense (5.8 YPC in second-half). If that volume decreases and with his lack of receiving ability I'm staying away.
Dan Hindery
Henry doesn't feel that risky to me, Devin. He has already signed his franchise tender, which means he is going to play whether he gets an extension worked out or not. I don't think the lack of a long-term deal is going to impact his workload much either. I expect Henry will want to go out and prove his value and put up the best stats he can before hitting free agency.
The other nice thing about Henry is that the Titans have ramped up his usage down the stretch each of the last two years.
Over the last two seasons, Henry has averaged 25 carries for 129 yards and 1.2 touchdowns during the fantasy playoffs. His 32 carries for 211 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 16 last year won fantasy championships for a lot of people.
Sigmund Bloom
Cook is the easiest pick here because of his injury history and that his holdout threat is already above board. Nothing is going to mitigate the injury concerns - taking a player who is 1 for 3 at being available in Week 16 doesn't exactly instill first-round confidence. The holdout could end with an agreement at or near the open of camp as Rick Spielman has signed Stefon Diggs, Linval Joseph, Everson Griffen, and Xavier Rhodes to extensions in late July/early August in the past. The last report by Courtney Cronin of ESPN had the Cook camp desires at around 15 million per season with the Vikings initial offer at under 10 million. Cronin added sources said Cook would gladly take 13 million per and Jay Glazer recently said the Vikings "absolutely love" Cook and endorsed an extension. If I had to wager I would say it's more likely Cook gets an extension than he holds out into the regular season. The Vikings (and every other team that doesn't have Patrick Mahomes II) may also be more reluctant to commit money to any extensions with the prospect of a flat cap growth on the horizon, so if Cook doesn't sign by the second week of camp, we probably see just how far Cook is willing to take his holdout. If you do take Cook in the first round, getting Alexander Mattison in the 8th-10th round range seems prudent.
Jason Wood
I'm with Dan on not worrying about Henry. As noted, he signed his tender so he's playing this year, new contract or not. And that offense is so tailor-made for him, I just can't see him not delivering given the highest volume floor in the league outside of perhaps McCaffrey.
Chad Parsons
Dalvin Cook is my avoid player here at the top of draft boards. Durability and his potential holdout are the major hurdles for Cook to clear to justify his lofty draft cost. Even if the holdout does not equate to missed games to begin the season, being away from formal team activities longer than his teammates can increase his risk of an acclimation injury with a quicker-than-usual ramp-up for Week 1.
Justin Howe
Nick Chubb simply doesn't belong in the first-round talk. It's hard to see a path to top-12 numbers - he may even struggle to finish as a top-12 running back. Rarely do we see a guy catch fewer than 30-35 balls and return first-round value. And last year, once Kareem Hunt entered the lineup, Chubb hauled in just 11 over the final 8 games. For Chubb, it looks like the only way to extract first-round value will be through a HUGE, Derrick Henry-type rushing season - something like 1,600+ yards and 12+ touchdowns. But how likely is that? Likely enough to roll the dice over a handful of three-down options? And is Chubb even the best back on Cleveland's roster? Kevin Stefanski moving toward a full-on 1-2 punch with Hunt would absolutely torpedo Chubb's value on the spot.
Justin Howe
Yeah, Matt, Julio is the WR most likely to slip from here. I used to assume his complete lack of touchdowns was an outlier and always projected progression. But the fact is, for whatever reason(s), he's just not a big threat near the goal line. He's been thrown to 44 times from inside the 10 over the past 5 years, yet he's caught just 52% of them*. Compare that to Thomas (70%), Adams (68%), and even Antonio Brown (63%) over that span, and you see why those guys are always 12-touchdown threats while Jones usually settles in around 6.
* Can't exactly blame Matt Ryan, either. Austin Hooper caught 67% while in a Falcons uniform.
Matt Waldman
Jones and Ryan are worth further discussion. Both are excellent players, but Jones has shown a lack of comfort with the fade. As big and athletic as he is, his timing with fades as been iffy, at best. This isn't a huge deal because he's great with so many routes in the tree, and the fade is a low-percentage play in the red zone.
Hooper, an excellent fade and contested-target option at Stanford, didn't see many of these targets in Atlanta but had success with targets in the flat where he made the first man miss and scored.
Ryan compounds the issue. As I have shown multiple times in my in-season film room piece, The Top Ten, Ryan has issues spotting the first or second open read n situations you wouldn't expect from a passer of his skill and experience.
Still, I am less confident in Jones as a first-round pick more for his chronic injuries that may catch up to him than anything else.
Will Grant
Joe Mixon is a favorite of a lot of folks as a 1st-round pick, but I was a big fan of his last year and he got off to a slow start due to the Offensive Line woes that the Bengals had. He came on strong at the end of the season, but if you spent a 1st round pick on him last year, you were rewarded with just three touchdowns in his first eight games (one in the first six). He had 100+ yards from scrimmage in only one of those first eight games and less than 40 yards from scrimmage in half of them. Their OL isn't much better this season (our Matt Bitonti ranks them 30th), and they have a rookie quarterback under center. Not saying he doesn't have value but I can't see risking a 1st-round pick on him.
Will Grant
I agree with Justin on Nick Chubb. With a full season of Kareem Hunt, it makes sense that Chubb's opportunities are going to take a hit. Especially in a season where summer conditioning is going to be limited, it makes sense to platoon your young stars and Hunt has too much talent not to get him more involved in the offense to keep Chubb fresh and reduce the risk to injury. Chubb has great talent - but Hunt should steal just enough opportunities to keep Chubb out of 1st round consideration.
Adam Harstad
I want to pick back up on Justin's thoughts about Julio Jones and regression.
Everyone regresses to the mean. Not everyone regresses to the same mean. There are "sustainable" touchdown rates, but those can vary from receiver to receiver.
For his career, Julio averages a touchdown for every 212 receiving yards, which is at the highest end of the sustainable range, but still in the sustainable range. Henry Ellard also averaged 212 and Andre Johnson averaged 203. Since his third season, he's at 255 yards per touchdown, which is extraordinarily high but seems pretty stable.
When Julio has been getting fewer touchdowns than that for a sustained period, he tends to regress back to that range. When he's been getting more touchdowns than that he tends to regress back, too. He started last season with 4 touchdowns on just 265 yards, yet he still managed to end the year at 232 yards per touchdown.
Basically, however many yards you think Jones is going to get, divide by 200 and I'd wager he finishes with that many touchdowns minus 1.
Jordan McNamara
I'm actually bullish on Nick Chubb this season and think Kareem Hunt is vulnerable to a reduction in role in 2020. Hunt returned to the Browns in week 10 last season. From week 10 through 17, Chubb and Hunt combined for 188 carries, with Chubb handled 144 carries -- good for 77%. In the receiving game, the exact opposite was true as Hunt's 37 receptions represented 77% of their combined 48 receptions. When there is a coaching change, as there is with new Head Coach Kevin Stefanski, players used in a specialized role are vulnerable to reduced usage. This is a major concern for Hunt on top of his off-field concerns. I am treating Hunt as more of a flex-worthy player who is a Nick Chubb injury away from being a top 12 weekly play, than an RB2-type producer he was in 2019. As a result, I see plenty of value for Chubb in Dalvin Cook-type role in Stefanski's offense.
Jeff Haseley
You guys are making excellent points with several players. I like Waldman's call on Julio Jones, as strange as it is to imagine, those points are valid. Dalvin Cook appears to be the top choice due to injury history and a potential holdout but I keep coming back to Nick Chubb. The presence of Kareem Hunt looming over him is just too big to ignore, in my opinion. Both backs are capable of toting the ball with enough stamina to warrant starter carries throughout. What if both backs get equal or close to equal carries? We don't know what Kevin Stefanski is going to do with this tandem. When it comes to targets, Hunt has the clear edge, which is a disadvantage to Chubb. The only way I see Chubb holding up the production of a first-round pick is if he reaches double-digit touchdowns and 300+ carries. Could that happen? Yes, it could. But because there is a chance that it won't happen, with several factors, I lean no. This is likely going to be driven by the number of touchdowns that Chubb scores. He had two rushing touchdowns in weeks 10-17 last year, which was of course, when Hunt returned to the lineup.
Phil Alexander
Chubb and Jones are the two I'd be least excited to have as anchors on my team.
My take on Chubb is closer to Jordan's than Justin's. He fits well with what we saw Stefanski do in Minnesota and might be the best between-the-tackles runner in the NFL. But while Chubb's bust potential is low, the presence of Hunt caps his ceiling below the other running backs typically being drafted in Round 1.
As Matt alluded to, Jones has shown us signs his lingering lower-body injuries will eventually compromise his production. With guys like Adam Thielen, who can get you ~85% of Jones' peak production, usually available in the late-third, it isn't necessary to build your team around a wide receiver who can fall off the ledge at any moment.
Andy Hicks
History tells us around six of these guys are going to disappoint on different levels this year and running backs usually dominate this list.
There have been several well-argued points made already, but I like the points made by Chad and Sigmund regarding Dalvin Cook. Cook has no downside available with his current draft slot and he is a player that has several downside issues as already outlined by others.
Drew Davenport
I disagree with Justin and Will about Nick Chubb. While there are plenty of valid concerns, I keep coming back to a couple of things. Jordan mentioned one of them, and that's the coaching change. It can't be underestimated that the new coach was so effective in using a back like Dalvin Cook. It's not as if we are projecting a big receiving bump in order for him to post big numbers. He only caught 36 passes a year ago and still managed an 8th place finish in PPR scoring leagues. The other thing I can't get past is that Chubb was extremely active in the red zone but had a disappointing 8 rushing scores. That's likely just some bad luck. He carried the ball 50 times inside the red zone last year and was the worst, by far, of all comparable running backs with similar carry numbers not named Leonard Fournette. The offense in Cleveland was a mess last year and I'm betting there will be an increase in efficiency that goes along with having an adult as head coach in 2020. Either way, if Chubb hits 300 carries (he had 298 last season) and his touchdown totals spike a little to match his usage, it doesn't really matter how many catches Kareem Hunt might take. The floor still puts him in the top 10, and that doesn't scream bust to me.
I definitely endorse the Dalvin Cook pick. Several of the guys have made the case so I don't need to rehash that, but the injury concerns are enough that I'd rather have just about any other player in the first round over Cook purely for that reason alone. After Cook, I have to agree with the Joe Mixon pick as well. What Mixon did in the second half of 2019 was impressive. But let's not forget that the narrative around Mixon went from the massive bust at the halfway point of the year to first-rounder by the time the season was over. Now those were an impressive eight games, but I'm not convinced that we know what the Cincinnati offense is going to do in 2020. They threw the ball more than all but a handful of teams last year and yet refused to give him a real shot at piling up receiving numbers. I suppose it's possible they use him more in that capacity to take some pressure off of their rookie quarterback, but assuming rational coaching isn't a winning fantasy strategy considering he will have the same staff that gave him 35 catches last year despite trailing most of the season. On top of that, I agree with Will that the poor offensive line and rookie quarterback make Mixon an even riskier proposition. I'd stay away from both him and Cook in the opening stanza.
Justin Howe
The thing is, Chubb's 35 catches from last year are his absolute high-water mark. That's the most he can conceivably hope for, or at least the most we can responsibly project him to. And even that looks like a pipe dream. Over 8 games with Hunt last year, he was only on pace to add 22-234-0 through the air, which is death for almost all first-round running backs. Over the past 5 years, we've seen 32 seasons of 250+ PPR points from a running back. Only a single one caught fewer than 30 passes, and only four caught fewer than 40.
I think spending a top-20 pick on Chubb is a prayer for gobs and gobs of touchdowns. They could happen, but I'm much more likely to chase play volume - with an emphasis on reception upside - than high efficiency like that. A guy like Austin Ekeler won't take as many carries, but in PPR formats, he projects to a head start of 100+ points on Chubb and Derrick Henry. It would likely take a full or nearly-full season for those rugged grinders, with huge efficiency rates to boot, to make up that gap.