FBG Predicts: The NFC South

Photo: USA Today Sports

Since everyone is sitting around waiting for camps to start, we decided to ask the Footballguys staff to offer up some predictions for each division. We asked staff members to predict the order of finish, if the division was good enough to get multiple playoff teams, and if there was a team in each division bad enough to contend for the 1.01 pick in the 2021 Draft.

Today, we'll look at the NFC South and compare our staff predictions to win totals from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Find links to other divisions here.

The addition of Tom Brady has improved the Buccaneers, but New Orleans should still control this division.

Jeff Pasquino

The Saints are the class of the division, but things can turn on a dime with Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski in Tampa Bay this year. The Buccaneers will be a favorite "dark horse" pick, even though they are not much of a dark horse as Vegas has the Bucs' over/under around nine wins.

My dark horse is Carolina, with strong skill position player talent, but very inexperienced. Ian Thomas, Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore are not household names outside of fantasy football circles, but they could emerge as top performers if the Panthers build a strong passing game around Teddy Bridgewater (and play some semblance of decent defense).

Is this division good enough to get two playoff teams? Three?

The Short Answer

The NFC South will likely get two teams and has an outside shot at getting three.

Phil Alexander

The team continuity New Orleans brings into this season makes them a possible Super Bowl favorite in a COVID-affected year. You also have to like the odds of Bruce Arians and Tom Brady teaming up getting Tampa Bay back to the playoffs. Perhaps the Falcons can be a third playoff team from the NFC South, but they'll have to win their division matchups via shootout due to their dismal defense.

Jeff Pasquino

Two teams will need to come together quickly as both Tampa Bay and Carolina have new quarterbacks. Both are veterans, but it does take time to gel and get on the same page. The division has a tough schedule as a whole as all four teams play both the AFC West and the NFC North, so 10 wins should go a long way to securing the top spot. Tampa Bay has more name recognition, but Carolina could push for a Wild Card as their first six games (Raiders, @Tampa Bay, @Chargers, Arizona, @Atlanta, Chicago) look to be winnable at first glance.

Ryan Hester

Tampa Bay might be improved enough to earn a playoff berth behind New Orleans, and Atlanta could make it due to the new seven-team-per-conference format if a few things fell the right way.

Chad Parsons

Tampa Bay and New Orleans are good bets for the playoffs. I am skeptical Atlanta gets all the way home with four games against the aforementioned tandem.

Bob Henry

With the quality of quarterbacks, offensive line and continuity with coaching in New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Atlanta, it's certainly possible for two of them, but there's too much quality across the NFC for three. The Saints are my pick with most of their team already in place and the presence of Winston and Hill gives them quality depth - something the others don't have at the most important position. They also have the best defense. After that, there are legitimate questions with each of the other three.

Jeff Haseley

This division is good enough to get two playoff teams (New Orleans and Tampa Bay), and possibly a third (Atlanta) if their defense rises up against expectations. I'd argue that Tampa Bay would've been a playoff team last year if not for Jameis Winston and his turnover challenges. The addition of Tom Brady and his efficient decision-making skills put them over the top, but I still think they take a back seat to New Orleans in the division. It's hard to top Drew Brees and the Saints wealth of weapons, not to mention years of experience with Sean Payton. The Saints are arguably the best team in the NFC over the last few years, minus the playoff, of course.

Jason Wood

I think the division could end up with three playoff teams if things break right. New Orleans returns intact from a team that went 13-3 and outscored its opponents by 117 points last year. Tampa Bay has Brady and, for the life of me, I cannot fathom that situation not leading to a wild card spot or at least a strong push for one. Atlanta is the X-factor. The team has been wildly volatile under Dan Quinn, including last year when they looked like one of the worst teams in football in the first half before looking nearly unstoppable in the second. Carolina is the only easy out. They've got a long rebuilding process ahead, particularly on defense.

Jordan McNamara

I could see multiple teams making the playoffs. I think New Orleans is the best team in the division, but Tampa Bay and Atlanta could compete for the division and a wild card spot. Tampa Bay should be more stable this year and cut down on their turnovers after adding Tom Brady. Atlanta was very good down the stretch last season after struggling to begin the season, but has talent everywhere on offense. The division will be fun to watch.

Andy Hicks

This division is likely to have two playoff teams. Three is possible, but the bottom two sides here need a lot of breaks to go their way.

Tampa Bay is in win now mode and Tom Brady is likely to have done his research carefully in landing here. How many games did Jameis Winston cost this side last year? Bruce Arians is an underrated head coach and with just average luck they will be hard to beat. The matchups between Tampa and New Orleans will be crucial for final standings. Although it’s hard to be definitive, there is more sign of aging in Drew Brees than Brady, although the Saints have much better coverage at the position. Carolina is rebuilding and could fold like a deck of cards or build a strong future. Dan Quinn lifted a very ordinary team last year, but I doubt he can do it again in 2020.

Andrew Davenport

This is one of those divisions that I think has the potential to get three teams in. New Orleans has the makings of a Super Bowl contender, and Tampa Bay has built their roster up to the point where winning less than 10 games would be a disappointment. The Buccaneers' defense looks like it should be improved, and obviously Tom Brady gives them some stability to win close games that Jameis Winston didn't. The major question mark is Atlanta. On paper their defense looks weak, but a funny thing happened after their bye week last year - they weren't awful on that side of the ball. In fact, after Dan Quinn gave up defensive duties to Raheem Morris they only allowed more than 22 points twice in their final eight games. The only reason I'm not more bullish on Atlanta's chances is having to play in this tough division. I think the Saints and Bucs make it in, and the Falcons have a good shot to make it three.

Is there a team in this division that will challenge for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 Draft?

The Short Answer

All of the new parts in Carolina could put them at the bottom of the league.

Phil Alexander

Carolina could be in the mix here. The Panthers defense ranked 32nd against the run last year and lost their franchise linebacker, Luke Keuchly, to retirement. Opponents should be able to impose their will on Carolina's depleted defense, and the offense could have trouble bailing them out due to the lack of a regular preseason to install their new scheme.

Jeff Pasquino

Carolina needs to get their defense and offense together, but what is clear is that the Falcons are going to have a rough go of it this season. With the schedule mentioned above plus a trip to Dallas and a home game against Seattle, finding a clear winning path is tough every week. I'm struggling to find seven wins on that schedule, so I would be all over the under on their win total this season, especially if Carolina looks better than Atlanta.

Ryan Hester

Carolina has the lack of talent at key positions and the inexperience at head coach to contend for this "honor."

Chad Parsons

New coach, paying a middling quarterback, and a suspect-at-best defense and Carolina is a quality bet for a top-10 pick with top-5 upside.

Bob Henry

Barring an injury to impact players, or something like that, I don't think any of them are bad enough out of the gate.

Jeff Haseley

The interesting storyline with Carolina is that they could have a surprisingly efficient and productive offense, but their defense is the exact opposite. I don't think they are bad enough to finish last in the league, but it will be difficult to overcome the expectation that they will struggle, especially in the highly-potent NFC South, in a year where crowd noise will not be a factor. The 2020 season will be offense-oriented which bodes poorly for teams with questionable defenses, like Carolina. The Panthers do have some fiery young talent on defense, but they may be a year or two away from being a competitive unit. Their secondary, particularly cornerbacks, are among the least experienced in the league. Envisioning that unit having success against the likes of Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, etc, seems too far-fetched. They will also face Davante Adams, Adam Thielen, and Allen Robinson this year. It's a tall glass of water that could prove to be problematic for the young secondary and ultimately, the team.

Jason Wood

Carolina could be among the worst teams if the new coaching staff isn't up to par. The Panthers were woeful last year, giving up 470 points. Teddy Bridgewater is unproven as a franchise starter, Joe Brady as an NFL play-caller, and Matt Rhule as a head coach. I wouldn't handicap Carolina as the likely worst team, but it's within the range of outcomes.

Jordan McNamara

Carolina's signing of Teddy Bridgewater is a good story, but Bridgewater has not proven to be anything more than an average at best starter in the NFL. As a whole, Carolina is in transition in a year where the smart money is to be on stability. With a new coach, new quarterback, and revamped defense with little time to build cohesion, I think 2020 could be a rough year for Carolina and put them in contention for the number one pick especially after playing six games against this division.

Andy Hicks

It is conceivable that both Atlanta and Carolina are in contention for this honor, but they should be good enough to land a top 10 pick rather than the first one.

Andrew Davenport

I think it's a possibility for the Panthers. They have six tough games as a given against their division, and they have so many moving parts that things could easily turn ugly if some things don't go their way. Jordan captures my thoughts succinctly - a new coach, a new quarterback, and a defense that looks to be bottom tier are not good recipes for winning a bunch of games in the NFL. Ultimately I'd be mildly surprised if they weren't good enough to win 4-5 games, but they have to be in any conversation about the top pick.