FBG Predicts: The AFC South

Photo: USA Today Sports

Since everyone is sitting around waiting for camps to start, we decided to ask the Footballguys staff to offer up some predictions for each division. We asked staff members to predict the order of finish, if the division was good enough to get multiple playoff teams, and if there was a team in each division bad enough to contend for the 1.01 pick in the 2021 Draft.

Today, we'll look at the AFC South and compare our staff predictions to win totals from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Find links to other divisions here.

The Jaguars definitely take the center according to the Footballguys staff, but there is decent competition in this division.

Ryan Hester

Indianapolis is the best-coached team in the division and gets a much-needed shot in the arm at quarterback in Philip Rivers. Houston lost a bit and was lucky, so the order of second and third here could easily come down to a game or two.

Tennessee is ranked third here because their quarterback situation seems unrepeatable. They caught lightning in a bottle with Ryan Tannehill last year, but is 2019 Tannehill the real Tannehill? We’ve seen a team in this division get hot, make an AFC Championship Game, and then come crashing down to earth not long after. And the NFL is not a ground-and-pound league.

Jeff Pasquino

Indianapolis gets my nod here with a major improvement at quarterback with Philip Rivers. Rivers can easily transform the locker room and the team's outlook with Rivers' career winding down and the playoff window closing for him. The Colts should be able to build on a strong offense and an opportunistic defense to win the division and position themselves for a potential playoff run. Tennessee should build on last year's playoff wins and be a tough out every week, while Houston retools their offense minus DeAndre Hopkins but added Brandin Cooks and David Johnson. Both veterans will likely benefit from a change of scenery and a Top 5 fantasy quarterback to boost the scoring for the Texans this year and keep them in the hunt.

Is this division good enough to get two playoff teams? Three?

The Short Answer

Two would not be a surprise, and three is even possible.

Chad Parsons

The AFC South is good enough to supply three playoff teams, but I am skeptical beyond the Colts. The Titans were overachievers last year in how game script-wise they were able to stick with their DNA and Ryan Tannehill had an otherworldly run of efficiency to close the season. I expect both to regress downward and could see them finishing behind Houston and Indianapolis easily. The biggest change in the division is the Colts. Adding Philip Rivers and Jonathan Taylor are game-changers both for now and (specifically with Taylor) and the future. With Deshaun Watson, Houston is always a threat and I am more bullish on David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, and Will Fuller (always health-pending with them) than most for their potential impact.

Jeff Haseley

I'm going to say one team will make the playoffs from the AFC South, Tennessee. As long as Derrick Henry is healthy the game script will be to run the ball and make timely throws when needed. The continued development of A.J. Brown may even boost the passing game to the point where Tennessee and Ryan Tannehill are capable of winning with Henry, but also winning with the pass (if needed). The Colts are No. 2 in the division, but I don't see Philip Rivers being efficient enough or good enough to make a claim for a wildcard berth. The AFC playoff race will be difficult, but they also need to contend with Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Denver, Houston, and maybe Las Vegas. The increase to seven teams per conference that earn a playoff berth helps, but ultimately I feel the Colts will fall just shy and the primary reason will be Rivers.

Jason Wood

Houston was the luckiest 10-win team in a long time, last year. They were actually outscored 385-378, making their 10-6 record a statistical shocker. With the loss of DeAndre Hopkins and no discernible improvements on defense or the offensive line, this is the year they fall back to mediocrity. The Titans will have a hard time matching last year's late-season momentum, but they return the best defense in the division and will still be able to dictate game scripts enough to win a division crown. Indianapolis could be a playoff team if Philip Rivers has another strong season left in him, but they could also win five games and it wouldn't be a surprise.

Ryan Hester

No, it’s not. One team makes the playoffs from this division, and as per annual tradition, they’ll be a questionable postseason team that hosts a potentially superior wild card team.

Justin Howe

There are indeed three playoff-caliber teams, all of whom could land anywhere between 7-11 wins. But I'm not overly confident in them winning crucial AFC tiebreakers. Tennessee and Indianapolis look strongest at first glance, and I'll probably swap these two around all offseason. The Titans appeared to play at a higher gear than they're capable of down the 2019 stretch, while the Colts lost a number of close games that should swing back their way somewhat. The Texans have loomed over this division for a while, but at some point, I have to project them to regress under Bill O'Brien's Old West-style management. He's blown through such a pile of talent and assets - and leaned so heavily on guys like David Johnson and Kenny Stills in the process - that the reckoning year has to be coming.

Jordan McNamara

I think this is a very difficult division to project. This division got both Tennessee and Houston into the playoffs last year, and I think it is possible two teams get in again. I project Jacksonville to be bad, so other teams in the division should be able to rack up wins against them. Houston was outscored by 7 points last year but managed to go 10-6, which screams regression in 2020. Tennessee was fourth-best in score differential in the AFC, but Ryan Tannehill had a 7.7% touchdown rate and 9.8 yards per attempt in 2019. There is very little in his career to suggest that is repeatable. Meanwhile, the Colts added Philip Rivers who finished with 7.8 yards per attempt, to an offense that produced 6.5 yards per attempt last season and finished 30th in the stat. Even if the Colts finish midway between those two numbers, they should see sizable offense growth.

Phil Alexander

DeForest Buckner, Jonathan Taylor, and Philip Rivers are each major improvements to last year's 10-6 roster. The Colts will be neck and neck for the division title with Tennessee, whose offense is bound to regress from last season.

Andy Hicks

I do think the top three teams in this division will be competitive right until the end and maybe 9-7 is enough for the sides finishing second and third to make the playoffs. Indianapolis has made several good moves in recent season, but it all hangs on the play of Philip Rivers. It is entirely conceivable that Rivers was the reason that the Chargers underachieved and a soon to be 39-year-old Rivers does not succeed. That said Jacoby Brissett is better than most backups, although you do not want him to play the whole season. Tennessee and Houston have probably the best Belichick disciples to coach in the NFL so far and their results mean that I would be hesitant to underrate them. They find ways to win.

Jeff Pasquino

This is where it gets complicated with three Wild Card teams for 2020. Tennessee and Houston both have chances at it, but none of these teams leap out as rock-solid playoff contenders. Would I be surprised with two or three teams in the postseason? No, especially with two wins likely coming against Jacksonville. Houston is the one team I am going to watch closely, as their opening schedule (@KC, BAL, @PIT, MIN) is a recipe for a rough start - but a hot Texans team could close with five or six wins in their final six contests (four divisional plus trips to Vegas and Pittsburgh).

Sigmund Bloom

With an extra wildcard spot, this division is probably your best bet to get three teams through. The Titans made the AFC title game last year and didn't suffer any significant losses. The Colts added Philip Rivers and DeForest Buckner to a young ascending team. The Texans have won the division in four of the last five seasons and they have Deshaun Watson, although they lost DeAndre Hopkins. Any fewer than two playoff teams from the AFC South would be surprising and it is the toughest division to handicap this year.

Bob Henry

Definitely, two is plausible, but it's unlikely three teams make it even with the extra slot available. The caveat for this (and it applies to any other division with one bad team) is if Jacksonville is truly bad enough that they lose all of their division games and quickly become front runners for the No. 1 overall pick. That could give the other three teams that one extra win - and a leg up - on what could be a tightly packed wild card race.

I like the influx of veteran talent the Colts brought in during the offseason offset by some key additions in the draft. DeForest Bruckner solidifies their defensive line. Xavier Rhodes remains a quality player who could elevate the secondary. And the offensive is among the best, if not the best, in the league. Add in other explosive rookie weapons like Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman and this team feels like it's ready to break through when paired with the continuity of the coaching staff - even with the addition of Philip Rivers (who has experience in Frank Reich's offense from San Diego).

It's a coin toss for Houston or Tennessee, but I think the Titans have a better, well-rounded team although whether one or both teams make the playoffs could boil down to something as important, yet as simple, as Derrick Henry and Deshaun Watson staying healthy. They are the two best players in the division and it's not that close.

Andrew Davenport

I would be shocked if they got three teams in. Two is possible although I wouldn't call it probable. I think that while the division is going to be very competitive among each other, it isn't going to stand out from the rest of the AFC as particularly tough. Unfortunately for them, they draw the AFC North and the NFC North, two very strong divisions top to bottom including three bruising defenses (Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore). That doesn't seem favorable for this division to get a second team in.

I think Jordan and Jason nailed it when talking about Houston's chances. They weren't overly impressive last year and fortunate to go 10-6 and win the division. The rub there is that they draw the first-place schedule and are going to open with the Super Bowl Champs, and then have to take on Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota. They could be 0-4 before they take a breath and realize the season has started. If there is anyone who can overcome these obstacles it is Deshaun Watson, but I'm worried about the defense too much to think they'll pull off the improbable. That Texans defense has slowly deteriorated each of the last couple years and 2020 doesn't look any better.

The Colts are the other side of that coin in that they draw the third-place schedule (Jets, Raiders). They also made a significant addition by getting Buckner, as a couple of guys mentioned, and they brought in a professional quarterback who can make plays behind a very good offensive line. Their schedule, the additions, and the coaching staff makes me think this division is going to go to Indianapolis. It isn't that Tennessee is going to suddenly be awful, but their offensive efficiency screams regression. At one point after Ryan Tannehill took over the offense, the Titans scored 31 touchdowns from the red zone to just ONE field goal. That simply isn't going to happen again. Sure I can see the Titans going 10-6 and winning the division, but my pick is the Colts to win the South and the second-place team to struggle to get in or barely squeak in with that last spot.

Is there a team in this division that will challenge for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 Draft?

The Short Answer

Jacksonville is a heavy favorite.

Chad Parsons

Jacksonville is absolutely on my 1.01 shortlist considering their work-in-progress defense and likely stopgap Gardner Minshew quarterback. Fortunately for the Jaguars quarterback is a strength of the 2021 projected class and being at or near the top will blend well with their likely need for a franchise-potential option.

Jeff Haseley

Yes, I can see Jacksonville falling in the category of potential teams to earn the No. 1 draft pick. They play in a difficult division, and their continuity is in question with several players taking the initiative to move on to other teams. A.J. Bouye, Nick Foles, Calais Campbell, Marqise Lee, Jake Ryan, etc have moved on to other teams this season. Also, Yannick Ngakoue has voiced his opinion on wanting out of Jacksonville. Even removing talent from the equation, the Jaguars are mentally behind the eight-ball and the crazy season that everyone is expecting has even begun yet.

Jason Wood

Jacksonville has meticulously cut loose every big contract it could, through trades and cuts, and is in a full rebuild mode. It's hard to identify any position on the roster where they'll have a decided advantage against most opponents.

Ryan Hester

Jacksonville’s quarterbacks are Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon, Joshua Dobbs, and Jake Luton. They’ve invested almost nothing in the most important position in sports. This shows that they’re not putting a ton of effort into 2020.

Adding to that, their most high-profile players are disgruntled, which doesn’t inspire confidence. The team has built well at other positions, which suggests they’re a potential riser in future years.

And they have the L.A. Rams first-round pick from the Jalen Ramsey trade, so they’ll be hoping for a down year out west to give them two top-tier picks (ideally including number one overall to land Trevor Lawrence) to combine with their young core.

Justin Howe

The Jaguars have shed a lot of young talent over the past few years - even more, once Yannick Ngakoue is dealt - and imported very little in comparison. Gardner Minshew is all but certain to regress from a serviceable rookie year, and their 2021 starter likely isn't on the roster yet. Given the culture surrounding this team in recent years, a 2-14 collapse would surprise absolutely no one.

Jordan McNamara

Jacksonville is my bet to finish with the first pick in the draft. Gardner Minshew will need to develop quickly or he will be replaced early in the 2021 draft.

Phil Alexander

Vegas currently has Jacksonville the odds-on favorite to finish with the first pick next year and so do I.

Andy Hicks

Like everyone else, Jacksonville is hard to pass up. Their fire sale of high-quality players for low draft picks seems absurd and Doug Marrone looks world-weary as he approaches what is likely to be his last season with the team. A fifth-round draft pick in his second season is their starting quarterback and while the romance surrounding Gardner Minshew is fun, realistically it is likely to be a brutal season for the team.

Jeff Pasquino

Jacksonville, no doubt. The other three teams in the division could easily sweep the Jaguars, leaving Jacksonville essentially with an 0-6 start. Jacksonville should be good enough to win a handful of games, but Las Vegas has the Jaguars with the lowest Over/Under win total (4.5), so a first overall pick in April would not surprise me at all.

Sigmund Bloom

Jacksonville should be right there with Carolina as the favorite to pick No. 1 in 2021. The team is in Weekend at Bernie's mode as a lot of the staff that led them into the rocks after coming *this close* to the Super Bowl are still there and they traded Calais Campbell and AJ Bouye for third-day picks. Yannick Ngakoue is still waiting to see if a trade market develops for his services - an opt-out of the 2020 season is possible if no one makes the Jaguars an offer.

Bob Henry

Jacksonville stands out to me, but the NFL has thrown so many surprises at us every year that there are always teams that surprise. Gardner Minshew could do that, but I think it's more likely that this team spirals downward, Marrone and his staff effectively lost Jalen Ramsey. They appear to be on the verge of the same with Yannick Ngakoue. Rumors persist around Leonard Fournette being a potential mid-season trade candidate. It feels like this could legitimately devolve into a toxic situation for this locker room. The impact of COVID-19 could simply accelerate that if players become unmotivated if things spiral.

Andrew Davenport

Yep. Jacksonville. I'm not going to say anything earth-shattering here that hasn't already been said by the insightful comments from the guys. But I can't think of a team right now who I'm more pessimistic about than the Jaguars. Their defense has been ransacked, and the mood of the team seems particularly poor overall. Pasquino I'm taking the under on that 4.5 win total. I just don't see many winnable games on that schedule.