FBG Predicts: The AFC North

Since everyone is sitting around waiting for camps to start, we decided to ask the Footballguys staff to offer up some predictions for each division. We asked staff members to predict the order of finish, if the division was good enough to get multiple playoff teams, and if there was a team in each division bad enough to contend for the 1.01 pick in the 2021 Draft.

Today, we'll look at the AFC North and compare our staff predictions to win totals from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Find links to other divisions here.

While there is a bit of disagreement on which teams finish second and third, there is near unanimity at the top with Baltimore and absolute agreement at the bottom with the Bengals.

Bob Henry

I probably re-wrote my order of finish three or four times because I wouldn't be surprised to see Pittsburgh reclaim the top spot with a healthy Roethlisberger and a defense featuring difference-makers at multiple spots. Baltimore still looks like the most complete team, though, after restocking the shelves along their front seven, adding an elite talent to their backfield (Dobbins), a potential star in the slot (Duverney) and returning one of the deepest, most talented secondaries in the league and then the league's MVP. The Browns could make it interesting if the investments made along the offensive line pays off quickly. Their running game could join the Ravens among the elites in the league, but more importantly, it could help Baker Mayfield settle down and become the quarterback the front office envisioned. The Bengals are on the rise and they are flush with playmakers to create problems, but their defense isn't quite there and as good as Burrow could be out of the gate, it's a tough hill to climb.

Ryan Hester

Pittsburgh nearly made the playoffs last season with quarterbacks that don’t belong in the CFL, let alone the NFL. If Ben Roethlisberger returns healthy, the team should be able to withstand the defense’s inevitable regression in the takeaway department and still challenge for 11+ wins.

The team Pittsburgh will upset is Baltimore, who will still be solid but will regress from last season. And with the disclaimer that this is a hunch, the way Baltimore lost its first playoff game could be a precursor to a step back.

Jason Wood

This is one of the easier divisions to handicap, regardless of Ben Roethlisberger's return. The Ravens outscored their opponents by 249 points last year, which was far and away the NFL's best point differential. The other three teams in the division all had negative point differentials. Baltimore would need a significant injury to Lamar Jackson to lose hold on this division in 2020.

Is this division good enough to get two playoff teams? Three?

The Short Answer

Probably two and maybe even three with the Browns.

Bob Henry

The depth of the division could work against having two or more playoff teams if the Bengals or Browns improve quickly. Perhaps a 10-6 or 9-7 record could take the division if these bottom teams jump up to 6 or 7 wins. It's doubtful that three teams make it in.

Jordan McNamara

It would surprise me if Cincinnati made the playoffs, but I think Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland all have a chance to make them. Baltimore is likely to take a step back, but I like their team in 2020. Pittsburgh was in contention for a playoff spot late in the season without Ben Roethlisberger last season and if Roethlisberger is healthy, the Steelers should be highly competitive. Cleveland was a trendy pick in 2019 but foundered. I think the hiring of Kevin Stefanski should bring stability to the organization and help Baker Mayfield's development. If so, they can be a playoff team.

Chad Parsons

Baltimore, outside of a Lamar Jackson injury, is a sturdy bet to find the postseason. Pittsburgh with Ben Roethlisberger back and better weapons than when he exited early in 2019 is a strong wildcard (or better) option. Cleveland, in a perfect world, could absolutely challenge with a new offense and strong weapons. The pivot player is Baker Mayfield playing closer to 2018 than 2019 level.

Ryan Hester

Two will make the playoffs, but not three. Cleveland will improve from 2019 but ultimately fall short.

Jason Wood

It's highly unlikely. As mentioned, Baltimore was the league's most dominant team last year but the other three were bad. None scored more points than they allowed, and have a lot of work to do. It wouldn't a shock to see either Cleveland or Pittsburgh squeak in as a wildcard team, but they wouldn't be my favorites in the AFC.

Andy Hicks

This division is good enough to have three playoff teams, but two is more likely. Cincinnati will do well to get six wins. Pittsburgh could be in the last year of Ben Roethlisberger and despite lacking a lot of difference-makers, they are a well-organized unit and will beat the sides they should. Cleveland has been building talent for years and just needs coaching stability and good play from Baker Mayfield to be a serious threat. Baltimore is the class of the division, but it all hangs on Lamar Jackson. They do have a quarterback group that complements each other well, but Jackson is clearly a difference-maker.

Justin Howe

Baltimore takes a noticeable step back - how could they not? - but still threatens 12 wins and locks the division down by Week 16. The Steelers boast the defense and quick-strike ability to stay afloat, but the offense as a whole is splintering. Their tendency to miss the team plane for winnable games makes a postseason outlook tough to project. The Browns should swing upward and threaten them, both somewhere between 7-10 wins. Cincinnati shows up to all 16 games.

Jeff Haseley

I think two of seven teams in the AFC making the playoffs can be the Ravens and Steelers. Pittsburgh narrowly missed the playoffs last year and that was without Ben Roethlisberger for most of the season. Baltimore is the favorite to win the division, but Pittsburgh isn't far behind, especially if Roethlisberger returns to form and he brings James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster with him.

Phil Alexander

Two, yes. Three, maybe. The real story here will be Cleveland making the playoffs one year later than most expected. A revamped offensive line and Kevin Stefanski's play-calling will allow Baker Mayfield to do what he does best -- deliver accurate passes downfield off play-action. Look for this team to sneak into the playoffs and possibly make some noise.

Jeff Pasquino

The Ravens are going to come after 2020 with anger after blowing a great regular season. They earned a bye for the playoffs and the top seed in the AFC only to blow it at home against Tennessee. It was a tough lesson to learn for the younger team, but it will last and motivate them throughout this year. Look for Baltimore to be right there for the top spot once again in the AFC, hot on the heels of the Chiefs.

Pittsburgh somehow put together a respectable 2019 without Ben Roethlisberger and James Conner for most of the season. They are a solid squad on both sides of the ball and should be able to outpace Cleveland, who are still trying to figure out how to get over the hump of mediocrity.

Even with an extra Wild Card spot, I only see the Steelers in contention for a playoff push. No, I don't trust the Browns - at all.

Andrew Davenport

Three feels like a stretch, but two seems very reasonable. Pittsburgh's defense is nasty, and Lamar Jackson struggled to throw the ball when these teams met in October. The Steelers took Baltimore to overtime in that game and had a chance to finish the game but couldn't do it. With Ben Roethlisberger back the Steelers have a steadying presence on offense, and a favorable schedule as well. Baltimore is still going to be a very good team, and their defense is extremely tough too, but I think this means that it's going to be difficult for Cincinnati or Cleveland to do well enough to get into the playoffs this year.

Devin Knotts

With seven playoff teams this season, it seems almost a lock that this division will have two playoff teams. Three teams is a bit challenging especially if Baltimore is as dominant as they were last season.

Cleveland is the wildcard here as discipline and untimely penalties derailed their season in 2019. We have seen when they are playing well how good they can be as evidenced by their 40-25 win at Baltimore last season.

Pittsburgh is another intriguing team as they largely overperformed last season and the question will be how will they respond with Ben Roethlisberger in his age-38 season. If Roethlisberger rebounds to his prior form, they will be in contention for that second playoff spot, as there is still a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball.

Is there a team in this division that will challenge for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 Draft?

The Short Answer

We might see a repeat No. 1 overall pick from Cincinnati.

Bob Henry

Similar to the depth making it hard to find three playoff teams here, it is just as doubtful that any of these teams are bad enough to be in the hunt for first pick next April.

Jordan McNamara

I think Cincinnati will be better, especially returning Jonah Williams and A.J. Green, but the lack of an offseason development program for Joe Burrow is concerning. I could easily see another top-five pick for Cincinnati and would not rule out No. 1 overall.

Chad Parsons

On paper, things look great for the Bengals with (hopefully) a healthy A.J. Green and Jonah Williams, Joe Burrow at 1.01, and Tee Higgins drafted to start Round 2. However, rookie quarterbacks, even 1.01, are not usually huge game-changers in Year 1. The lack of offseason programming in-person is an added hurdle for rookies, especially quarterbacks. While the top-half and even top-10 of the 2021 NFL Draft order is in play for Cincinnati, top-3 would surprise me unless Joe Burrow is out for most of the season.

Ryan Hester

Cincinnati should improve, but their defense is dreadful enough to lose any given game. And expecting immediate success for a rookie quarterback is optimistic in any offseason, let alone one shortened and modified by COVID-19. Joe Burrow won’t get the benefit of learning by doing, nor will he establish the level of on-field chemistry with A.J. Green to make that pair operate optimally right away.

Jason Wood

The Bengals weren't just bad last year, they were woeful. Joe Burrow will help, but a rookie quarterback isn't going to be enough to right a defense that allowed 420 points last year. The Bengals will be in the hunt for the top pick, again, and will probably look to trade it for a king's ransom to whatever team most wants Trevor Lawrence.

Andy Hicks

Unless something seriously awful happens to the others the only team possible is Cincinnati. How much they improve with second-year coach Zac Taylor and how ready for the big time Joe Burrow is will determine where they slot.

Justin Howe

The Bengals certainly should. The defense got some attention but remains among the league's worst. And I'm not a huge booster of Burrow, who boasts just a single strong year of college ball and walks into a huge mess of question marks. I think they top out at 4-5 wins.

Jeff Haseley

Cincinnati has a chance to earn the coveted #1 draft pick but that hinges on the health and ability of rookie Joe Burrow. In my opinion, the chance is low. The expectations are high for the rookie record-setter out of LSU, so a disappointment from him would be unexpected. Still, if Burrow gets hurt or falls short of the lofty expectations, it's possible that Cincinnati, as a whole, could struggle, especially in the powerful AFC North. My gut says the Bengals will have five to six wins in 2020, which is probably not bad enough to finish last overall.

Phil Alexander

Probably not. This should be the best division in the AFC.

Jeff Pasquino

Cincinnati got their franchise quarterback in the draft this year, and that should be the foundation and motivation to get him some experience in 2020. Joe Burrow will struggle for certain as a rookie, but he has to learn at some point and the fan base can rally around a long term goal of getting better. The Bengals are likely to push for a top pick in 2021 once again, but the future may get brighter if Burrow shines in his first year.

Andrew Davenport

I think Cincinnati very well could do it again. I do think they made some important free agent defensive signings, but none of the guys they signed are high impact elite players for the most part. That defense needed a lot more than what they gave it, although I do think it'll be better than it was (which wouldn't be hard). The cautionary tale I have for Cincinnati is that while Joe Burrow feels like a lock to be a good NFL quarterback right now, nobody really knows how he can perform this year with the lack of on-field time to learn the offense, his teammates, and get acclimated to the league. That's hard to do in the best of circumstances, let alone in this difficult summer. My gut says they'll be better this year, but when looking at the league as a whole, I still struggle to find too many teams who have a worse overall roster or who I'd rank below them to start the season.

Devin Knotts

The Bengals are likely to be in the top 5 picks next season, but it seems likely they will be just good enough to avoid the number one overall spot. Expect 3-4 wins from the Bengals this season.