Can DeVante Parker be Trusted?

Photo: USA Today Sports

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THREE REASONS TO TRUST DEVANTE PARKER IN 2020:

1. Despite a poor catch rate, DeVante Parker was heavily targeted in 2019 and performed well by most efficiency metrics
2. The Dolphins offense should be as good, or better, in 2020 behind new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey and his multiple wide receiver sets should feed Parker plenty of targets
3. Changes on the Dolphins roster, a possible quarterback change, and a scheme change all mean that Parker is a candidate for a small step back. But even shaving Parker's numbers to account for the uncertainty doesn't destroy Parker’s floor and draft value as a solid WR2

Parker is a name with lots of emotion attached to it. He’s burned countless fantasy owners in the past, and this makes it hard to consider his 2020 prospects objectively after a fifth-year breakout. Projecting Parker to take a small step back is the right move considering all the change swirling around him on both sides of the ball. But after a WR11 finish in PPR formats last year, even haircutting last year's production leaves plenty of room for value at his current price. He can be counted thanks to an enviable combination of a solid floor and WR1 upside.

LESSONS FROM 2019

The majority of the fantasy community had given up on Parker by the start of last season. For too many years, people had read of Parker’s training camp heroics only to be burned by a disappearing act when the regular season started. Despite flashes of brilliance, he never met expectations. But then, in Year 5, Parker put it all together. He finished as the 11th-best receiver with 15.4 points per game. He also posted the fifth-most receiving yards in the league and tied for fourth in the league with nine touchdowns. By most metrics, Parker finally lived up to the hype and had an excellent year.

What's most encouraging about Parker's breakout is that it wasn't due to an odd statistical outlier or massive spike in efficiency versus prior seasons. He simply stayed healthy and was fed more targets. His previous high in targets was 96 back in 2017, but he shattered that with 128 last year. He’s never been a guy who boasted a high catch rate, posting numbers in the 50%-60% range during his career. This past season was no different as he hauled in just 56.3% of his targets for 72 receptions. That might be cause for concern in some regard, but it's better to bank on a typical catch rate than if last year's success came with an unusually high rate that would be subject to statistical regression. Consider the following glowing numbers:

DeVante Parker: 2019 Statistics

Sources:

*DYAR – Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement – Pro Football Outsiders

**DVOA – Defense Adjusted Value Over Average – Pro Football Outsiders

***Total Air Yards, Contested Catch Rate – Player Profiler

None of these numbers argue for regression. In fact, the strong efficiency numbers despite the modest catch rate indicate Parker could offset inexperienced quarterback play this year if he can slightly improve his catch rate.

What might be even more remarkable about his 2019 numbers is that the NFL’s Next Gen Stats called Parker the sixth-worst receiver in the league at gaining separation (minimum 43 targets). Keep in mind that Parker has to play in the AFC East with two of the top cornerbacks in the league in Stephon Gilmore and Tre’Davious White. Matching up against those two gifted defenders four times in a season can affect those numbers. But Parker was able to overcome that with his fantastic contested catch rate (noted above) and the switch to quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 7 who threw the ball downfield with reckless abandon. In fact, Parker performed exceptionally well in three games with Fitzpatrick against the Bills (twice) and Patriots. Parker posted a stellar 20 receptions, 327 yards, and 2 touchdowns against those two talented cover men in those three contests. The biggest question Parker faces this year is how long Fitzpatrick keeps the huddle warm for Tua Tagovailoa?

THE MIAMI DOLPHINS – A TEAM IN FLUX

One of the most impactful issues when it comes to determining future fantasy production is what has changed around the particular player. This could be a coaching change, a scheme change, or new personnel. In Parker’s case, there are notable changes in all three areas.

Change #1 -- A New Play Caller

Although Head Coach Brian Flores remains in place, the Dolphins decided to move on from Offensive Coordinator Chad O’Shea and hired Chan Gailey in his place. Gailey has been around the game for a long time and brings plenty of NFL experience to the team. He also has a history of working with current starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, and that adds a layer to the situation that is difficult to quantify. Nevertheless, while it’s not possible to know exactly what the Dolphins offense will look like in 2020, Gailey does have some tendencies. He's innovative and a risk-taker and beat writer Joe Schad says he expects that when rookie Tua Tagovailoa hits the field that Miami will employ plenty of Run-Pass Option (RPO) as part of their attack.

Gailey also has an affinity for 3- and 4-receiver receiver sets. While he’s not going to simply force that personnel grouping on to the field, his history and the Dolphins current wide receiver corps argue for receiver-heavy personnel groupings. Fellow receiver Preston Williams' return could feasibly cut into Parker’s opportunities, but the switch to Gailey points to the offense continuing to favor a big role for Parker and *all* the wide receivers on the team. On the surface, the switch to Gailey seems to be a net positive for Parker, or at least not a reason to think his volume will be in jeopardy.

Change #2 -- A New Scheme

Players adapt to new systems differently; some are quick learners, others take a while to adjust. As a 6th-year player, Parker has already had to learn multiple playbooks and should be well prepared right out of the gate. The complicating factor in 2020 though, is the amount of practice time – or lack thereof – that all teams have had to endure as a result of Covid-19. While it’s not an insurmountable risk, it can’t be written off as a non-factor. The fact that Fitzpatrick has prior experience with Gailey (and produced his best NFL season) should help to ease the transition, but getting Parker on the same page with his quarterbacks is certainly not a given. This change may only be a minor hit to Parker’s chances, but it is a slight downgrade for him in 2020.

Change #3 -- New Personnel

This one was left for last because it is, without a doubt, the most significant change facing Parker. The roster has undergone a complete overhaul under Flores as he came in and cleaned house to start the rebuild in 2019. This means that there are several major roster changes that can affect any offense’s production, and the most impactful came through the NFL draft at the quarterback position. The volume of changes alone makes it difficult for fantasy owners to know exactly how the Dolphins will perform in 2020 on either side of the ball. But, on paper Miami has managed to address most of their biggest weaknesses from 2019 through free agency or the draft. Whether that translates on the field is the larger question, but Flores certainly showed down the stretch that Miami appears to be well-coached and these personnel changes could take them to the next level.

• Defense – Signed standout cornerback Byron Jones, defensive linemen Emmanuel Ogbah and Shaq Lawson, and linebacker Kyle Van Noy
• Offensive Line – The Dolphins will sport three new starters heading into the year with Ereck Flowers signed from Washington and the selection of two rookies in the first two rounds of the draft
• Running Back – An extremely poor backfield has been invigorated by the acquisitions of Jordan Howard and Matt Breida
• Quarterback – The biggest change of the offseason was the selection of rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth overall pick in the NFL draft. He’ll compete with Fitzpatrick to try and win the starting job

The defense definitely looks like it will be better in 2020. This isn’t likely to have a huge impact on Parker, however, because it’s doubtful that they’ll suddenly turn into a top unit that allows the Miami offense to take their foot off the gas in the second half of games.

What’s more important, however, is how the newly rebuilt offensive line will perform. Footballguys offensive line guru Matt Bitonti still rates the team as having the worst offensive line in the NFL despite their attempts to remake the unit. The bottom line though, for Parker, is that the offensive line was putrid in 2019 too, so this isn’t likely to change his outlook significantly, although it may force the coaches to stick with Fitzpatrick for much of the season versus risking Tagovailoa's long-term health.

The running back situation can cut both ways for fantasy purposes. If the backfield is too good then the pass catchers suffer, especially in the red zone. But if the backfield isn’t good enough then the offense has trouble moving the ball at all. Miami finished dead last with just over 1,100 yards rushing last season. Howard and Breida, while not All Pros, are proven veterans who will go a long way towards alleviating the pressure on the Miami passing game. But given the fact that their offensive line is still a work in progress, the Dolphins aren’t suddenly going to turn into the Baltimore Ravens or San Francisco 49ers running the football. They’ll be better and it may slightly ding the passing numbers, but it should be seen as a net positive for the whole offense should Miami figure out the running game.

The most obvious issue, though, is the quarterback spot. The Dolphins selected what they hope is the quarterback of the future in Tagovailoa. The problem for fantasy owners is that there is no firm timetable on when, or if, he’ll see the field in his rookie season. That means that fantasy owners are stuck guessing how Tagovailoa impacts Parker’s numbers should he win the job at some point, and at what point that might turn out to be. At least on its face, Fitzpatrick’s aggressiveness and style likely helped Parker do what he did in 2019. Or at the very least, competent quarterbacking allowed him to finally do his thing. He started off poorly, but when Fitzpatrick finally took over for Josh Rosen things really took off. Eight of Parker’s nine touchdowns came from Fitzpatrick despite Rosen playing almost six full games before giving way. Tagovailoa is almost certainly a better quarterback than Josh Rosen, but recall that Rosen was selected in the top ten in the NFL draft as well. This is relevant because it underscores the full impact that poor quarterback play can have if Fitzpatrick gives way at some point to the rookie. Here is how it looked for Parker when the two different quarterbacks were on the field last year.

DeVante Parker 2019 Stats by Starting Quarterback

*Note: Fitzpatrick came in during the fourth quarter of Week 6 and threw one pass to Parker for an 11-yard touchdown

Those numbers are stark, as Parker posted an incredible WR2 finish in the final 11 weeks of the season with Fitzpatrick throwing the ball and the Dolphins defense giving up plenty of points to opposing offenses. The question remains, though, who prospective Parker owners will get at quarterback for the upcoming season. As noted above, any chance Tagovailoa has to earn the job is being impacted by the pandemic this year. It is quite likely Fitzpatrick starts the season both because of his veteran status and because of his experience playing for Gailey. After that, it’s anyone’s guess when, or even if, Miami will go with the rookie.

Complicating matters is that while Tagovailoa is a great prospect, how he performs if given the chance is hard to predict. He excelled in college at reading situations, pushing the ball downfield, and throwing the ball accurately. His injury history aside, he has a strong NFL quarterback profile. But that doesn’t mean that he’ll be good for Parker’s fantasy production. It could certainly be the case that Tagovailoa is shyer about targeting Parker when he’s covered (as his NextGen Stats show is quite often), and it’s also possible that the offense as a whole suffers because the rookie can’t effectively move the ball. All of this is speculation about what having Tagovailoa under center means. If a fantasy owner is banking on Parker’s production from last year then having Ryan Fitzpatrick is obviously the best-case scenario. But that is anything but guaranteed to last the year.

The final piece of the 2020 offensive puzzle is the presence of Preston Williams who is returning from an ACL injury suffered in Week 9. Many in the fantasy community are high on Williams and his chances to be a top wide receiver because of the strong numbers he posted before getting hurt. This optimism is certainly having an effect on Parker’s average draft position, and those who believe in Williams think his presence is likely to negatively impact Parker's full-year value. The other side of the argument, and it’s a reasonable one, is that Williams will be just ten months removed from his ACL reconstruction when the season starts. At the same time, he will be entering his second NFL season and can’t lay claim to being able to miss a lot of offseason work and still pick up a brand new offense. While Williams has immense potential, expecting him to explode in Year 2 off a major injury to eclipse Parker’s position as the top target would strain credulity. The splits with Williams on and off the field are certainly notable, but Parker and Williams should be able to co-exist and Parker will have plenty of targets despite the competition.

DeVante Parker 2019 Splits with and without Preston Williams

Those numbers certainly are something to pay attention to. In particular, Parker saw a marked bump in targets, and his yards per reception increased by almost 4 yards per catch when Williams got hurt. However, the problem is this chart, juxtaposed with the chart above on quarterback play, seems to say that the effect Williams had on Parker’s production could be a bit of a red herring. Parker and Fitzpatrick only played in three games together when Williams was on the field as well. Throwing out the games Rosen started shows that Parker still managed to average 5 receptions and 57 yards a game while scoring 2 touchdowns in that small three-game sample size. Those numbers certainly aren’t the same as his averages over the rest of the season, but the small sample size available to evaluate this trio on the field together is problematic. The conclusion, though, however weak the data set is, still says that Williams could dent Parker’s numbers regardless of who is under center.

FINAL CONCLUSION

It is not easy to shake off the prior judgments about Parker’s fantasy performances in the first four years of his career. But by most metrics, Parker’s fifth-year breakout is not necessarily a wild outlier that can’t be repeated. In fact, his catch rate was weak and despite that, he posted a big year. The changes around Parker and the uncertainty at quarterback mean that projecting an improvement on his 2019 numbers isn’t wise, and in fact, a small hit to his numbers is the most likely outcome. The fantasy community sees Parker’s situation as more tenuous in 2020 and that’s fair, and also reflected in his ADP. But even if his numbers decline a little bit, he isn’t being drafted to deliver 2019 type levels of production. As a result, he can be confidently drafted where he is and be counted on to have a reasonable floor for the 2020 campaign.

STATS AND PROJECTIONS

OTHER VIEWPOINTS

Scott Engel of Rotoballers is optimistic about Parker's chances to possibly even improve on his 2019 numbers:

"Parker projects to be Miami’s clear WR1 in 2020. Whether Fitzpatrick or prized rookie Tua Tagovailoa starting at QB, Parker will be a very busy man again. You should expect more receptions this season and over 1,100 receiving yards and eight-plus TDs. Parker is a good value pick capable of at least high-end WR2 production, and that makes him a value at an ADP of 61. Don’t doubt that he can approach last year’s totals, especially under the current and improving Miami regime."

Michael Fabiano of NFL.com thinks that Parker will have trouble matching last year's efficiency and approaching last year's production:

"Parker was one of the top waiver-wire adds in fantasy football last season. In fact, he averaged 19.3 points over his final eight games. Only Michael Thomas averaged more during that time. While his fantasy stock is clearly on the rise, Parker's efficiency in those eight impressive games will be very difficult to replicate over an entire NFL season."

Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros thinks that Parker may have volume concerns because of offensive and defensive changes:

"Knowing that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be back and that Tua Tagovailoa may take over at some point, Parker should remain in the WR2 conversation most weeks...but the team now has an improved defense and run-game, which will remove some volume from the passing offense."

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