In the first article of this series, we identified the three characteristics that most breakout offenses share. The 2017 Rams, 2018 Chiefs, and 2019 Ravens each massively outperformed expectations and led to league-winning fantasy performances. Now, we are applying that knowledge to our quest of predicting which offenses are most likely to make the leap this year. We have already looked at Denver’s breakout potential.
Our second team identified as a likely breakout candidate is Cincinnati. The Bengals have almost all of the elements we look for in a potential breakout offense:
- A young quarterback with an unknown ceiling.
- A major influx of skill-position talent, both through the draft and players returning from injury.
- A new offensive system that will take many elements from the LSU offense and a young offensive coaching staff that should find its footing in Year Two.
We will discuss each of these three elements in-depth below. Lastly, we will take a look at the different levels of fantasy impact we can expect from Cincinnati’s skill position players depending on how big of a step forward the offense takes.
Joe Burrow: instant star?
The fate of the Bengals offense rests in the hands of Joe Burrow. He is the reason it is easy to get excited about the Bengals chances of taking a huge step forward offensively. We will start by looking at some recent offenses that drafted a player with Burrow’s bona fides and then dive into what should make Burrow an instant NFL star.
Recent History of Heisman Winning Number One Picks
In the last 15 years, we have had five quarterbacks go straight from winning the Heisman Trophy to being selected #1 overall in the NFL Draft. The five guys in this exclusive club are Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Cam Newton, and Sam Bradford.
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Team (#1 Rookie Pick)
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Previous Season PPG
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Next Season PPG
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PPG Changes
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Improvement
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Rams (Sam Bradford)
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10.9
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18.1
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7.2
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66%
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|
Panthers (Cam Newton)
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12.2
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25.4
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13.2
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108%
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Browns (Baker Mayfield)
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14.6
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22.4
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7.8
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53%
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Cardinals (Kyler Murray)
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14.1
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22.6
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8.5
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60%
|
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Average
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13
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22.1
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9.2
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72%
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We are 4-for-4 in terms of these top college quarterbacks instantly making big impacts. Every single one led their team to at least 7.2 more PPG and at least 53% more points than scored the previous season.
Based upon this small sample size, the Bengals offense would be an extreme outlier if it did not make a big jump forward. Expect the Bengals to improve upon last year’s offensive numbers but the question is just how big a jump is reasonable to expect. These recent offensive comps improved their scoring by 72% over the previous season. The Bengals scored 17.4 PPG last season, so a 72% increase in PPG would put them at 29.9 PPG and make them a Top 3 offense. That is obviously an ambitious projection but we should keep our minds open to a wider range of possible outcomes when looking at offenses making big upgrades at quarterback.
Even if we use the minimum improvement of our previous four Heisman/#1 Overall quarterbacks (7.2 PPG), that still puts the Bengals at 24.6 PPG, which in recent years has been good enough to finish as a Top 10 scoring offense. If the Bengals end up being a Top 10 offense in 2020, then all of the top skill position guys on the roster are likely to outperform their current ADP.
Burrow’s upside
Within the context of imagining the realistic best-case scenario for the Bengals offense, we have to use what we just saw Joe Burrow accomplish in 2019 as a starting point. When asked whether Burrow has what it takes to hit the ground running in the NFL, Bengals quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher responded confidently that "we have evidence of him doing it at arguably the highest level a college quarterback has ever done it six months ago." He is not wrong. Burrow’s final season at LSU was historically great and it is an easy case to make that it was the best season any college quarterback has ever had.
Only One Joe Burrow
— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) June 17, 2020
The. Greatest. Ever. pic.twitter.com/bofb2R6GLN
Burrow’s 5,671 passing yards were the third-most in college football history, which is an eye-opening stat to being with. However, given the competition he put those numbers up against, it is even more impressive. Prior to 2019, the list of the Top 100 passing seasons in college football history had just one SEC quarterback (Tim Couch way down at #68). In terms of SEC and LSU history, Burrow completely smashed previous records by a degree of magnitude. It was not just yardage, either. Burrow also threw a record 60 touchdown passes and completed 76.3% of his passes.
We can add even more context to how impressive Burrow was by looking at his performances in the four biggest games of LSU’s season:
- Alabama: 454 total yards and 3 touchdowns
- Georgia: 406 total yards and 4 touchdowns
- Oklahoma: 514 total yards and 8 touchdowns
- Clemson: 521 total yards and 6 touchdowns
He absolutely torched the best defenses in the country. Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson all finished in the Top 10 nationally defensively.
Clemson finished the season as the best defense in the country according to football outsider’s FEI ratings (the college equivalent of DVOA). Burrow threw for 463 and 5 touchdowns against them and added another 58 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground. We need to at least be open to the possibility that Burrow is indeed the type of special prospect who can instantly elevate an entire offense and franchise.
Making the transition
It is understandable to have some hesitancy to invest heavily in an offense led by a rookie given the unique challenges presented by Covid-19. However, the early returns are very positive and Burrow’s biggest strengths — leadership, intelligence, and work ethic — give him a great chance of overcoming the lack of OTAs.
"The guys see his preparation and work ethic," Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan noted. "His knowledge of an offense that he’s new to, that always grabs people’s attention. When they come in and know what to say and how to do it and all the things that are required of a quarterback in an NFL offense, he’s exemplified all these things and that gets everyone’s attention first… He's been what we thought he was going to be through this process… the way he's attacked it, all it does is confirm all the things you thought, but you get to see it with your own eyes."
Hey @LSUfootball, you up?
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) July 1, 2020
3rd & 17: @JoeyB âž¡ï¸ âž¡ï¸ @JJettas2 👋 pic.twitter.com/kppVVvcQeR
The history of success on the biggest stages will make it much easier for Burrow to instantly command the respect of the huddle. "His past precedes him," noted Callahan. He’s got some pelts on the wall and these guys see all that." Burrow is mature both in makeup and skill set. Tony Romo has opined that Burrow’s "blend of accuracy, ability to handle pressure, mechanics, and mental processing skills are all bluechip traits that make him NFL ready."
Improved Skill Position Talent
The Bengals offense is adding the equivalent of four 2020 first-round picks and all at key positions. In addition to Burrow, the team gets Jonah Williams back to solidify the left tackle position. Williams was the 11th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and the first offensive lineman selected. He missed his entire rookie season with a shoulder injury suffered in camp. The biggest addition may be A.J. Green, who did not play a single snap last season. Green is the type of talent that elevates an entire offense because of how much attention opposing defenses have to give him. Lastly, the Bengals used the 33rd overall selection of the NFL Draft on a very talented young wide receiver in Tee Higgins. He was a first-round talent who slid one pick out of the Top 32 largely due to the depth of the wide receiver class.
On paper, the Bengals have one of the best groups of skill position players in the NFL. Offensive coordinator Bill Callahan is excited about the group and it is easy to see why. "You look around and you have a healthy A.J. Green, you have Tee Higgins, you have John Ross and you have Tyler Boyd," said Callahan "You have Auden Tate, you have C.J. Uzomah and you have Gio (Bernard) and Joe (Mixon)." It is an impressive mix of proven difference-makers (Mixon, Green, Boyd, and Bernard) and young players with untapped upside (Higgins and Ross).
Plus, we have to consider the possibility that Joe Burrow ends up being a big upgrade over Andy Dalton. If so, guys like Mixon, Green, and Boyd may be capable of significantly more than we have seen to date.
A.J. Green
Green will turn 32-years old during training camp and has essentially missed 24 straight games with two separate injuries. He had a foot injury that cost him the second half of his 2018 season and then badly sprained his ankle on a bad field in Dayton during a 2019 preseason practice. With the Bengals season spiraling down the drain and Green’s contract expiring, he was in no rush to return even though he probably could have late in 2019. We know what Green is capable of when healthy. Last we saw him, he was a Top 5 receiver in the NFL with a gaudy 45-687-6 receiving line at the midway point of the 2018 season. He has an elite combination of size, fluidity, hands, and route-running ability.
The Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP)RSP NFL Lens: The Technical Greatness of A.J. Green (vs. Aqib Talib) https://t.co/VE0htw8ZfD pic.twitter.com/B7qWQbRmYM
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) June 28, 2020
There are some other reasons to think Green might have a monster 2020 season. He is playing out a franchise tag and is likely to hit the open market for the first time. He also has people doubting him for basically the first time in his life. Plus, while Green was always supportive of Andy Dalton, he has to be excited about the possibility of playing with more of a gunslinger and a guy who showed incredible deep-ball accuracy last season.
A.J. Green in his career when targeted 20+ yards downfield:
— PFF (@PFF) June 26, 2020
31 TDs (1st)
Joe Burrow after reading this tweet. pic.twitter.com/Kcr9iiAjdj
Tyler Boyd
With A.J. Green out, Boyd was the WR1 for the Bengals last season and produced in that role. His 90 catches for 1,045 yards and 5 touchdowns were good for a WR17 fantasy finish. Boyd achieved those numbers despite seeing bracket coverage for much of the season due to the Bengals lack of weapons. With Green back and likely to occupy the deep safety, Boyd is going to have more room to operate and plenty of single coverage opportunities in the slot. He should be one of the most productive and efficient slot receivers in the league.
Tee Higgins
Higgins is flying a little bit further under the radar than he should. His addition to could go a long way towards elevating the entire offense if he can hit the ground running. He was one of the best deep threats in all of college football the last two seasons and, at his best, looks almost like an A.J. Green clone. Having two rangy wideouts with massive catch radii is going to make Burrow’s tradition to the NFL all the more smooth.
I’m a big fan of Bengals new WR Tee Higgins. He can play inside/outside. Here’s a good look at his catch radius. Lawrence tries to protect him from rotating safety and Higgins makes an outstanding adjustment. pic.twitter.com/MHfZeiVRJx
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) May 13, 2020
New Scheme
Unlike many of our breakout offenses we highlighted in the first article of this series, the Bengals do not have a new offensive play caller. However, there is still reason to believe this will be a different scheme than we saw in 2019 with Joe Burrow at quarterback.
The Bengals offense is going to make some tweaks to play to Burrow’s strengths and has even incorporated some aspects of the LSU playbook. "A lot that stuff has been from his time at LSU," Callahan said of giving Burrow some ownership of the playbook. "We're never going to be boxed in one way or the other. If something works better, then we'll do that." The Bengals offense improved down the stretch of the 2019 season, as the coaching staff figured out what worked and what didn’t. The Bengals offensive braintrust has continued to tweak the offense heading into 2020. "I think we've done a good job studying around the league that can help us..We studied a lot of things from LSU. Obviously if the quarterback is comfortable, everyone is comfortable," said Callahan.
The Bengals are looking to mix in some of the stuff Burrow liked best about the LSU offense while not completely overhauling the scheme, at least to start. "If all of a sudden we've determined we can be all kinds of dynamic without ever going under center, no one is ever going to be opposed to that."