Introduction
Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
One hypothetical example of beating the closing line would be betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at -4 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at -5.5. Here, the most efficient number is deemed to be -5.5, leaving the bettor with 1.5 points of closing value. Another hypothetical example, conversely, would be betting on the Carolina Panthers at +7 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at +4 at kickoff. In this example, there would be 3 points of closing line value for the wager on Carolina. As previously stated, consistently registering bets with positive closing line value is a great signal of a bettor who should find success in the future. This season, closing line value (CLV) will be tracked for all recommended wagers, along with the win-loss and profit-loss totals.
Results
Week 8 Review
- Cleveland Browns/Las Vegas Raiders o50.5 points (-106), LOSS -1.325 units
- Pittsburgh Steelers ML (+175), WIN +1.75 units
Week Profit: +0.425 units
Total Profit: -5.315 units
Week 8 was a tale of two worlds for the Beating the Odds betting card. Our day started off with a wager on the over in the Las Vegas-Cleveland matchup, which ultimately amassed just 22 points between the teams. Gusting winds and overall offensive inefficiency ruled the game from the beginning, and there were no signs of life for the over at any point in the game. Conversely, later in the afternoon, the Pittsburgh Steelers came up big when they pulled off an upset win over the Baltimore Ravens at +175. Pittsburgh's impressive start to the season proved to be no fluke when they went into M&T Bank Stadium and came out with a four-point victory over the reigning MVP. Pittsburgh's bend-but-don't-break defense was on full display in that matchup, as they allowed just three touchdowns on the day despite allowing over 400-yards. Of course, there was a bit of luck involved here, as the Steelers generated four turnovers while committing just one, but after some of the awful luck we have endured this season, I will gladly accept a game shaking out in our favor thanks to some fortunate bounces. This weekend, the Beating the Odds betting card will not feature any underdog moneyline selections to match the winnings from that game, but there are still two high-value favorites that are worth playing. Let's dive in.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-6.5) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
PICK: HOUSTON TEXANS -6.5 (-112), RISK 1.36 UNITS TO WIN 1.2 UNITS
This weekend, the Houston Texans head down to Jacksonville following their Week 8 bye week. Although the 2020 season, on the whole, has been disappointing for Houston, given their preseason expectations, Jacksonville has been notably worse. Now, at this point in the season, these two teams are trending in opposite directions.
Although it may be a bit of a stretch to say that Houston is a team on the rise, they have undoubtedly improved since the firing of Bill O'Brien. Offensively, the Texans appear to be a rejuvenated unit in recent weeks, averaging almost 29 points-per-game across their last 3 outings. This increase in offensive output has coincided with a significant change in play-calling tendencies. In the post-O'Brien era, Houston's offense is one of the most pass-heavy units in the NFL, which maximizes the impact that Deshaun Watson can have on the game. Opposite Watson and the Texans, this weekend is the Jaguars' bottom-ranked defensive unit. Jacksonville ranks dead-last in the NFL in DVOA allowed and DAVE, a predictive DVOA metric generated by Football Outsiders. Prior to Jacksonville's Week 8 bye, the team had allowed at least 30 points in 6 consecutive games, highlighting their overall failure as a unit and total lack of improvement in any facet of the game. Expect the Texans to score the ball with general ease this weekend, putting the pressure on the Jaguars' offense, led by an unimpressive 6th-round rookie quarterback, to keep pace.
In Week 9, the Jacksonville Jaguars will be forced to turn to Jake Luton as their new starting quarterback following an injury to Gardner Minshew that will keep him sidelined for a few weeks. Luton, a 6th-round selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, is an uninspiring prospect under-center. Frankly, while this may sound harsh, there is virtually nothing aside from his touchdown-to-interception ratio from his senior year that resembles a player worthy of selecting in the NFL Draft. Luton, a 6'6" pocket-passer from Oregon State, was the beneficiary of biases ingrained in old-school decision-makers within NFL front offices, which is why he is in a position to start for the Jaguars. Across his 11 starts during his senior campaign, Luton surpassed 300 yards just 3 times. During this 5-7 season, the Oregon State Beavers were regularly airing the ball out and playing catch-up, making this tally even less impressive. Additionally, his 62-percent completion percentage was just the 42nd-best mark amongst 101 qualified passers across FBS college football. Overall, Luton was an unimpressive quarterback against inferior talent, as he led the 71st-ranked offense in the country to a 5-7 campaign during his final season with the Beavers. Although Houston's defense also grades as one of the NFL's worst units, there is no reason to believe that Jake Luton will be the difference-maker under-center that makes Jacksonville's offensive attack a remotely dangerous or threatening one. Expect the Jaguars to struggle to move the ball down the field with consistency in Luton's NFL debut.
In total, the Houston Texans project to be nearly 9-point favorites in this clash between basement-dwellers of the AFC South. Given the current spread of 6.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook, we will have a 1.36 unit wager on the Texans to cover the spread and net 1.2 units when they cover.
DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-4.5)
PICK: MINNESOTA VIKINGS -4.5 (-110), RISK 1.21 UNITS TO WIN 1.1 UNITS
The Detroit Lions stay up north this week when they head to Minnesota for a battle that will ultimately determine which team in the NFC North ranks last in the division through eight games. Neither team's 2020 season has been impressive to this point, and neither team is particularly well-coached. This matchup will ultimately be decided by the on-field talent and virtually nothing else, as both coaching staffs continually hamstring their respective rosters through suboptimal decisions. If both teams were at full-strength, this betting line would likely sit at about three points. However, the Detroit Lions' offense will look like a shell of itself this weekend. Kenny Golladay will be sidelined due to a hip injury, and Matthew Stafford's availability is unknown following a positive test for COVID-19. Golladay's absence itself counts as about one-point on the betting line in favor of the Vikings. At quarterback, given the drop-off in talent between Matthew Stafford and Chase Daniel, lies a much larger impact on the betting market. The difference in value provided by Matthew Stafford, given his lengthy track-record as one of the league's most reliable passers, and Chase Daniel, a career backup without a 300-yard passing game to his name throughout his 11-year career, hovers between 5 and 6 points, according to my projections. Even before dissecting the matchup at hand, a 4.5-point spread makes very little sense, and we see value on the Vikings here.
Minnesota's season has been an erratic one, to say the least. The Vikings opened the season 0-4 and looked like sneaky contenders in the Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields sweepstakes. Then, following a victory over the Houston Texans and a close loss to the Seattle Seahawks that ultimately came down to a 4th-down conversion, there was a glimmer of hope in Minneapolis. The team quickly came back down to earth in Week 6 when the Atlanta Falcons trounced the Vikings on their home turf, but once again, the Vikings managed to bounceback with a shocking victory over the Green Bay Packers last weekend. It is tough to know which Minnesota Vikings team will show up each week, but the play-making talent within this offense is strong enough to keep the team relevant.
This matchup between two teams with equally mediocre defenses should be decided by the difference in offensive talent betwixt the two rosters. Detroit's injury-riddled offense enters Week 9 with virtually no expectations whatsoever; seeing them crack 20 points would be a mild surprise given the notable absences at key positions across their lineup. Minnesota's offense is effectively entering this game at full-strength with Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, and Irv Smith; all ready-to-go this weekend at their offensive skill positions. This stark contrast in capable play-makers at each team's disposal is the perfect encapsulation of why we will back the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9.
In sum, the Minnesota Vikings project as approximately seven-point favorites over the Detroit Lions this week, according to my projections. At the current line of 4.5-points, a 1.21-unit wager on the Vikings to cover the spread at FanDuel sportsbook is the pick, netting 1.1 units in a victory.
Summary of Picks
- Houston Texans -6.5 (-112), risk 1.36 units to win 1.2 units
- Minnesota Vikings -4.5 (-110), risk 1.21 units to win 1.1 units
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions, comments, concerns, or feedback regarding this article and how I can improve it moving forward