The Arizona Cardinals were the picture of ineptitude last year, finishing 3-13 and ranking 32nd offensively and 26th defensively. Somehow the Cardinals managed to finish dead last in rushing and passing, not to mention fielding one of the league's worst offensive lines. As a result, massive changes are afoot starting with the addition of head coach Kliff Kingsbury and his version of the Air Raid system. In keeping with the Kingsbury hire, ownership, and GM Steve Keim greenlit the drafting of Kyler Murray as the team's new franchise quarterback. They also loaded up with a bunch of new offensive pieces in the offseason.
In this Roundtable, we address:
- Kliff Kingsbury's system and its NFL fit
- Kyler Murray’s fantasy prospects
- David Johnson’s fantasy prospects
- Changes to the offensive line
- Target share distribution
Kingsbury’s Offensive System
Jason Wood: Do you think Kliff Kingsbury's system translates into the NFL? Why is this different than when teams tried to bring collegiate spread offenses to the league in the past, most notably Chip Kelly's system or the league's infatuation with the Run 'n' Shoot a few decades ago? If you're confident in the system, are you also confident in Kingsbury as the architect of that system, or does his losing record as a college head coach concern you?
Devin Knotts: I think the easy thing to do would be to look at Chip Kelly's system and compare it to Kingsbury, but they are vastly different. Kelly’s system at its heart was a run-based spread offense that utilized tempo to be successful. Kingsbury's Air Raid system is built off the ‘Four Verticals’ route concept and is augmented by a variety of hot-routes. The system’s ability to create spacing has been a nightmare for opposing defenses.
While no NFL team has fully committed to the Air Raid, components of the scheme have been gaining ground in recent years. Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes II, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray all played in the system, and we’ve seen Andy Reid, Matt Nagy, Frank Reich, and Bill Belichick (among others) integrate these concepts into their playbooks. A litany of NFL coaches have spent time with Kingsbury, Lincoln Riley, and Mike Leach to understand the concepts better. Kingsbury’s biggest unknown is whether he will be adaptable, as a 100% Air Raid system will eventually be shut down by defensive coordinators. However, if Kingsbury can remain creative and evolve his playbook, his system could be incredibly successful.
Sigmund Bloom: Kingsbury’s system will work for at least part of this year as defenses will be in catch-up mode. We saw the same thing happen with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last year. The Cardinals have the personnel to stretch defenses both vertically and horizontally and create mismatches. Kyler Murray can help slow down the pass rush because he's dangerous outside the pocket. It’s evident the Cardinals are fully committed to the system, which fosters optimism.
Phil Alexander: I'm with Devin on the surface-level comparison between Kingsbury and Kelly. If they weren’t both offensive-minded college coaches, the two wouldn’t be brought up in the same conversation. Kelly’s teams were run first, while Kingsbury’s offenses thrive on passing efficiency. It just so happens passing plays have never been more efficient than running plays in NFL history, so sign me up for a paced-up, pass-heavy scheme that spreads the field with fast, athletic players at every skill position.
Sigmund also brought up a great point. Kelly crashed and burned in the NFL, but it didn’t happen immediately. It took opposing defenses time to adapt to his scheme, while the Eagles finished as a top-6 scoring offense in Kelly's first season (2013) and top-3 unit in his second (2014). There will be an adjustment period to the Air Raid for enemy defenses, and it may very well last for more than just part of this season.
I'm willing to write off Kingsbury's win-loss record as a college coach. His specialty is passing offense, and his teams finished above-average in adjusted yards per pass attempt during each of his nine seasons as a head coach or coordinator (per Justis Mosqueda of Optimum Scouting). Worrying about college wins and losses puts the focus on the wrong details if the goal is projecting fantasy production.
Dan Hindery: I agree with Devin and Phil. There is much less of a separation between NFL and college offenses than there once was. These college concepts being brought to the NFL by Kliff Kingsbury have already gained purchase in the league and are being used to great success. Kingsbury’s former pupil Patrick Mahomes II took the NFL by storm in part due to the Chiefs offense borrowing heavily from the Air Raid offense Mahomes played in at Texas Tech.
Plus, it is worth noting that the landscape in college football has changed dramatically in recent years, and the NFL is being forced to adjust. “College offense” doesn’t mean what it did five years ago. In 2013, Washington State and Western Kentucky led college football in passing touchdowns. It was easy to dismiss those schools and schemes (plus the prospects they were producing) as college offenses without much impact on the NFL. In 2018, Ohio State and Alabama finished 1st and 2nd in passing touchdowns, and both schools threw for approximately 5,000 yards. USC and Michigan, two of the last top colleges running pro-style offenses, are implementing changes this offseason to go to spread, pass-heavy systems like Texas Tech and Alabama. These Air Raid influenced, pass-heavy schemes have been adopted by most of college’s blue blood programs now, so the top quarterback, offensive line, and receiving talent are coming to the league from these systems. The top schools are producing quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, and Tua Tagovailoa who are most comfortable in these wide-open systems. There is also much more coaching cross-pollination between NFL teams and these top colleges, so there are more and more NFL coaches who are well-versed in these college offensive systems.
Andy Hicks: Smarter people than me think Kliff Kingsbury can succeed, but the college offensive geniuses don’t have a great reputation in the modern NFL. A losing record at college doesn’t concern me as much as it should. Getting a top-notch and consistent lineup there is much harder than in the NFL. The more important questions are, what are his leadership skills like, and how does he respond to adversity? It is much easier to dictate to college players than grown men. If the locker room does not respect him or he loses spectacularly in Arizona, then what? It is easy to look at this whole experiment in a glass half full way, but history tells us otherwise. For my viewing pleasure, I hope this works, but for now, it doesn’t make sense.
What no one has talked about is the Arizona defense. Can these guys get an opposing offense off the field? If the other side is dictating play by constantly driving the ball down the field, what good is an Air Raid system that will be easy to scheme against given the scoreboard and time limitations? Assuming Arizona will dictate tempo seems disingenuous to me. If the desired result is to score quickly and get the ball downfield, that will place more pressure on an already weak defense. It looks to me like quick turnovers and numerous three-and-outs are a probability.
Jason Wood: I’m with Andy. It’s astounding to me how quickly we’ve bought into the collective bull case on the Arizona Cardinals. While I understand Kliff Kingsbury’s collegiate win-loss record may not be indicative of his NFL future, I’m not sure why it shouldn’t factor. He couldn’t win, in college, with Patrick Mahomes II. The same quarterback who threw 50 touchdowns and won the NFL MVP working under Andy Reid. And Kingsbury not only got fired by Texas Tech, but he also couldn’t get another head coaching job. He had taken the offensive coordinator role at USC before the Cardinals came calling. Why isn’t anyone dissecting Kingsbury’s staff? What about the defense, as Andy noted? While I agree this could be a high reward situation, I think it’s equally high risk.
Kyler Murray’s Fantasy Outlook
Jason Wood: What are your expectations for Kyler Murray as a fantasy quarterback in 2019? Do you worry about his size (let's say for the conversation his playing weight is under 200 pounds), and are you factoring in durability concerns into your projections/rankings? If he stays healthy, what's his upside based on the rest of the roster?
Sigmund Bloom: Murray will be a top-10 fantasy quarterback, with a top-5 ceiling. He'll produce as a runner and passer, and the dials on the aggressiveness meter should be set very high. Being on a losing team only helps the game script and aggressiveness factors.
Phil Alexander: Murray is QB7 on my first run of rankings, so I’m right in line with Sigmund. I want to emphasize, however, there is a difference between baseline projections and draft rankings, at least for me. Projecting Murray to finish as the No. 7 quarterback is admittedly optimistic before we see him in training camp and preseason action. But snapping up Murray ahead of average draft position is the type of swing-for-the-fences move I love taking in drafts, as well as the recommendation I'm making.
If it all comes together – his accuracy to all levels of the field, rushing ability, scheme fit, and supporting cast – Murray can approximate Deshaun Watson’s 2018 fantasy numbers, where he finished as the No. 5 fantasy quarterback. Please don’t make the mistake of pigeonholing him as a Lamar Jackson 2.0 run-first quarterback. Murray is the real deal as a passer, and his 500+ yard rushing upside is just the gravy.
Devin Knotts: Well, not only do I agree with Sigmund and Phil, I’m currently the highest staff member on Kyler Murray per our rankings. He is the perfect quarterback for Kingsbury’s system. He’s incredibly accurate on the run, in a pass-heavy offense, and yet can, and will, scramble when things break down. The Air Raid is an uptempo system and, when perfected, will give Murray more possessions and more attempts than most quarterbacks. When things break down, Murray can utilize his speed. He was incredibly smart in college on determining when to slide to eliminate taking a hit.
Andy Hicks: As you might guess, I disagree with my colleagues. Kyler Murray is about to get tested. The No. 1 overall pick has landed with a high reputation but has an inexperienced coach and a basic offense planned. The potential for high-level failure is there for all to see. Murray does have the skillset to transcend the NFL, but does he have the mindset that would be required to go along with it? How will he react to failure? How will his body react when that reputation of being elusive meets the NFL? To me, his height is the least of his worries. Playing quarterback in the NFL is a tough business, and there is no coronation for anyone. I will let others fall for the hype and the upside. Let’s see what he does once the season starts. I am very conservative in my rankings as the downside seems so much more likely than the upside.
Dan Hindery: I’m on the Sigmund side of this debate. It isn’t unreasonable to expect a top-10 finish for Murray. He is going to be throwing the ball a lot and suddenly has some exciting weapons to work with. His rushing ability is going to add at least 3-4 extra fantasy points per game, and that alone should push him above many of the pure pocket passers.
I have very little concern about Murray’s size being an issue from an injury perspective. He is short and has short limbs, but he is solidly built. I worry most about skinny guys, and Murray is not skinny. Russell Wilson has never missed an NFL start, and they have similar frames.
Jason Wood: Here's something I find fascinating. Most of you think Murray has top-10 value and even higher upside. As you probably know, David Dodds, Bob Henry, Maurile Tremblay and I all do preseason projections. We don't consult each other, particularly with our initial sets. Yet, we all see Murray basically in the same light:
|
Projector
|
Games
|
Comps
|
Atts
|
PsYards
|
PsTDs
|
INTs
|
Rush
|
RuYards
|
RuTDs
|
Fum
|
|
David Dodds
|
15.9
|
336
|
522
|
3570
|
23.4
|
13.9
|
90
|
481
|
3.1
|
3.8
|
|
Bob Henry
|
16.0
|
306
|
500
|
3465
|
21.0
|
14.0
|
90
|
580
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
|
Jason Wood
|
15.0
|
300
|
486
|
3275
|
19.0
|
15.0
|
80
|
520
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
|
Maurile Tremblay
|
16.0
|
296
|
471
|
3423
|
21.2
|
12.0
|
63
|
395
|
0.9
|
1.2
|
He ranks QB21, QB18, QB24, QB23, respectively in our projections. We either need to come up to your way of thinking collectively, or you all are being Pollyannas.
Devin Knotts: Where I struggle with these projections is the number of attempts. Texas Tech threw the ball 535 times in 12 games last year without a real quarterback. When they had Mahomes, they threw 653 times in 12 games.
I know it's a different game, but all four of you have Murray in the bottom third of the league in attempts, which would be a change in philosophy for Kingsbury for sure.
Jason Wood: Devin, I forecast the Cardinals for 973 plays, which is 19th; up from 32nd last year. I could see swinging 50-60 of those plays from rushing attempts (putting them toward the league low) in favor of passing, but I really can't justify expanding the overall size of the pie.
Moreover, Murray isn't going to amass huge rushing numbers AND 600+ passing attempts. I project him for 566 combined passing and rushing attempts, which is solidly in the top tier of expected outcomes for rushing quarterbacks (meaning those with 75+ rushes). He has to be Russell Wilson or Cam Newton to get much higher. Newton has eclipsed that mark seven times, Wilson has only done it three times, Donovan McNabb did it twice, and Daunte Culpepper did it twice. It's a hard thing to achieve. The highest mark ever for a quarterback with 75+ rushing attempts was McNabb in 2000 when he took pass 569 attempts.
I think you have to believe Kingsbury will not only be successful but have one of the league's most productive offenses to think Murray will have 500+ passing attempts and run wild. It just doesn't add up, and the Cardinals personnel hasn't improved enough to argue for it credibly.
Dan Hindery: It's a fair point. We had some similar discussions on Mahomes last offseason, but at least there was an easy fall back there to say Alex Smith was QB4 in the same offense in 2017. So it didn't seem crazy to rank Mahomes high. There's nothing like that to fall back on with Murray because Arizona was so awful last season.
Top 10 might be hyperbole, so maybe I should scale that back. I double-checked my best ball rankings and I only have him 12th. I have him just ahead of Lamar Jackson, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, and Dak Prescott. I wouldn't argue if somebody else liked those guys more.
Your numbers don't seem too far off. I think he throws for more touchdowns than you project, Jason. The interesting thing will be the attempts and how fast Arizona plays. They will want to be very high-paced but who knows if they'll be able to pull it off?
David Johnson’s Fantasy Outlook
Jason Wood: Does David Johnson resume his place as the Cardinals top player and offensive engine? Early best-ball drafts indicate Johnson is back in fantasy managers' good graces. Do you agree, and if so why/why not? Is his skill set scheme independent, or was he a great fit in Bruce Arians system specifically?
Devin Knotts: The more I look into David Johnson and this offense, the more worried I get. The offensive line issues aren’t necessarily fixed, and Johnson just received a significant contract, and the Cardinals are transitioning to a pass-heavy offense. I think we will see a David Johnson who is very similar to 2018 where he struggled running the ball but did have value as a check-down receiver. He finished as the 9th overall running back in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues. He's a safe pick, but not someone you can expect to break into the Top 5 overall.
Sigmund Bloom: Yes Johnson will be the Cardinal’s top player, but no he won’t be the offensive engine. Murray will be the engine. Murray’s ability to keep the whole field in play as a passer and runner will put the initial stress on defenses and then his decision-making, arm talent, and athleticism will be the driver. Johnson should still see the most touches, and be used as a receiver a lot more creatively than he was last year. A top-5 pick is in order.
Phil Alexander: It remains to be seen if Johnson’s skill set is scheme independent, but after 2018, we know it’s definitely not bad-scheme independent. Former Arizona offensive coordinator Mike McCoy’s insistence on running Johnson up the middle behind a putrid offensive line bordered on absurd.
Kingsbury has vowed to get Johnson the ball “all sorts of ways” and be “creative in how they get him the ball.” It could just be coach speak, but I have to imagine the front office has charged Kingsbury with getting Johnson on track after they handed him a $39-million extension last offseason and promptly watched him flop. It should help that Kingsbury’s Texas Tech offenses typically made frequent use of running backs as pass-catchers.
When you consider Jason’s point about the Cardinals fielding the league’s worst offense last season, we should be celebrating Johnson’s 2018 accomplishments. A cumulative RB9 finish in PPR leagues despite a historically lousy offensive setup and staggering 36% dip in target volume from his legendary 2016 season, would have been impossible for just about any other running back.
Between the scheme and surrounding talent upgrades, enough is working in Johnson’s favor to put him back in contention for the No. 1 running back spot.
Dan Hindery: I also think the offense will run through Murray so we can call him the engine. However, I am buying into a big bounce-back season from Johnson. Kingsbury should use him as a pass catcher much more than he was last season. Plus, Murray’s running ability will have a positive impact and help keep defensive ends from crashing down on run plays.
Andy Hicks: In theory, this offense should run through David Johnson, but we really don’t know what Kliff Kingsbury has planned for him. All signs point to a downfield passing game. Kingsbury threw it 64% of the time in college, and Kyler Murray rarely checked down at Oklahoma. Will Johnson be in on five-receiver sets? If Kingsbury is smart, Johnson gets more room to run and catch the ball out of the backfield than he has ever seen. Is the rookie coach more concerned about image or practicalities? Johnson is a risk, as are all players here. He’s a high-risk, high-reward player for sure.
Offensive Line Changes
Jason Wood: Is the offensive line better? Arizona hired Sean Kugler -- a well respected offensive line coach – from the Broncos and added guard J.R. Sweezy, tackle Marcus Gilbert, and guard Max Garcia in free agency. Is that enough to turn the team's Achilles heel around?
Devin Knotts: Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury are bigger upgrades to the offensive line than the actual linemen they acquired. By running the Air Raid, it makes it significantly harder to blitz the quarterback. I believe the offensive line issues will continue but will impact the run more than the pass.
Sigmund Bloom: As long as Marcus Gilbert can stay healthy, that's an upgrade, but that hasn't been a given in recent years, and it's why the Steelers traded him for so little on a reasonable contract for a starting tackle. The line is still one of the worst in the league, but teams can't send the house at Murray because they will be vulnerable to chunk plays if he escapes the pocket, which makes a mush rush/contain approach more viable. Also, Murray had trouble being decisive with urgency in the pocket at times, so keeping him in the pocket should be the Plan A for the opposing pass rush, which reduces the importance of line quality in the passing game. On the running game side, the field should be spread and the boxes much lighter for Johnson, so getting a push at the point of attack isn't as important as Johnson finding the best lane against defenses that are more preoccupied with Murray.
Phil Alexander: I’ll defer to the staff expert on this one. Our offensive line maven, Matt Bitonti, ranked the Cardinals unit 31st in his first rough cut of pre-draft offensive line rankings. If he says they’re still bad, I believe him, especially since the Cardinals ignored offensive line during the draft.
Overall, this is a more significant concern for me than how well Murray and Kingsbury will transition to the NFL, but at least there are plausible reasons for optimism. We’ve seen Russell Wilson, whose skill set is similar to Murray’s, thrive behind weak Seattle offensive lines plenty of times in the past. And both Sigmund and Devin made a case for Murray’s strengths mitigating poor line play to some extent.
Dan Hindery: The Arizona line should be better due to the additions mentioned. However, it is not just external additions. A big reason this line was such a disaster last season was the injuries. Left tackle D.J. Humphries missed half of the 2018 season. A.Q. Shipley was ticketed to be the starting center last year and tore his ACL. Justin Pugh was expected to be a starting guard and missed over half of the season. If they can stay healthy, it is reasonable to expect a much better performance. Plus, as others have said Murray will cover up a lot more mistakes than Josh Rosen did due to his escapability.
Andy Hicks: Offensive lines don’t tend to gel well quickly with new schemes, new players, and new coaches. Stability seems to be very important here. With a downfield passing game and a running quarterback, everyone needs to get on the same page quickly, or this will get ugly. Murray will need to be as elusive as advertised for this to work, at least in the short term.
Target Share Distribution
Jason Wood: How is the target share distributed? Larry Fitzgerald returns for his 16th season as the de facto No. 1, but will his target share be diminished? Does Christian Kirk's emergence last year reverse course under a new coach and scheme? Which of the three rookie receivers: Any Isabella, Hakeem Butler, and KeeSean Johnson will have fantasy relevance this year if any? Will veteran tight end Charles Clay and perennial tease Ricky Seals-Jones matter in redraft leagues?
Andy Hicks: These are all good questions, that we will be wrestling with all preseason. If this whole experiment succeeds, fantasy seasons can be won and lost with the correct decisions. Logically though, it seems like a wasteland for draft picks. I am willing to be convinced, but every single player on this offense is a boom-or-bust pick, with the highest floor going to David Johnson.
Devin Knotts: I’m more optimistic on the viability of the Cardinals skill players. Andy Isabella and Christian Kirk are the guys I want in this offense. If you look at the Air Raid, the slot guy plays a huge role. The offense is predicated off of creating favorable matchups in space and Isabella can absolutely fly running a 4.31-second 40-yard dash at the combine. There is a reason the Cardinals traded up for him; he will play a significant role. Larry Fitzgerald is not a great fit at this point in his career as he is more of a technical route runner which is something that is not as prevalent in the Air Raid as it does not rely on timing throws nearly as much as a typical NFL offense. With defenses focusing on Fitzgerald based on the name and historical success, I expect the veteran to struggle a little bit this year.
Sigmund Bloom: As Matt Waldman has pointed out, Murray is not yet consistent when it comes to taking the easy answer, so Larry Fitzgerald's targets should drop. Christian Kirk is also excellent at getting open early in routes, and he has inside/outside versatility along with some speed and run-after-the-catch prowess, so he could become the top target, but not approaching the target share most No. 1 receivers get. The rookies, Andy Isabella, and Hakeem Butler should get more of the targets when the play is extended and in the deep passing game, and be very formidable with less of the rookie curve holding them back because all of the receivers are learning a new offense together. David Johnson should be among the leaders in targets among running backs yet again and have somewhere in between Fitzgerald/Kirk and Butler/Isabella in targets.
Phil Alexander: I’m honestly not sure how the targets will be distributed but given the pass-catching talent on the roster, and fast-paced, aggressive passing mindset Kingsbury brings, it wouldn’t be shocking to see two Cardinals wide receivers place inside the Top 30 for fantasy. Currently, none of them are being drafted that high, which means there’s profit potential in this group, especially if the majority here feel Murray has top-10 potential. I’m happy to take shots on Kirk, Fitzgerald, and Isabella in Round 8 or later in best-ball drafts. Butler is off my radar unless we see a strong preseason.
Kirk is the guy I’m most interested in, and the way the Cardinals stockpiled wide receivers in the draft should keep his draft position depressed all summer. Despite Arizona’s offense being the dregs of the NFL last season, Kirk managed at least 75 receiving yards in one-third of his starts as a rookie, and was leading the team in receiving yards ahead of Fitzgerald before a foot injury ended his season in Week 13.
Many sharp talent evaluators are head over heels for Hakeem Butler. I too am excited about his prospects in this offense. However, Andy Isabella looks like the guy who is most likely to explode onto the scene as a rookie. General manager Steve Keim noted that he was a top-35 player on their board and raved about his speed and quickness in the post-draft press conference. In terms of draft capital, the pick used on Isabella was more than twice as valuable as the pick used on Butler. Plus, speedy slot guys have often starred in Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme. In recent years, Keke Coutee and Jakeem Grant starred for Texas Tech. Isabella is a great scheme fit and is the top receiver whom Kingsbury targeted for his scheme.
Jason Wood: I don’t see any of these guys as top-30 options, as I’m less confident in the offense as a unit and either way see the team spreading the ball around far more than most teams. If we’re believers in Kingsbury’s Air Raid system, we also have to believe he won’t have a designated target hog. Among this unit, I’ll gladly buy shares of Hakeem Butler on the cheap and let everyone else fawn over Isabella. I don’t see it with Isabella. But Butler was my No. 1 rated rookie receiver coming into the draft. He’s a dynasty dream pick thanks to his perceived fall from grace.