Choosing between Denver's Freeman and Lindsay

Photo: USA Today Sports

THREE REASONS ROYCE FREEMAN WILL PULL EVEN WITH PHILLIP LINDSAY IN THE COMMITTEE

1. Lindsay is still recovering from a significant injury.
2. Freeman has had time to gain ground with the new coaching staff.
3. The new blocking system will likely mean improvement for Denver’s runners.

SUMMARY

It’s likely that both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman will be worth rostering, but Freeman costs less and is the greater value at this point. The new coaching staff will want to preserve Lindsay and not put the diminutive runner in harm’s way unnecessarily. The gravity and seriousness of Lindsay’s wrist injury and Freeman’s progress give the team every reason to be cautious with Lindsay’s recovery. That will mean more of Royce Freeman this season, as both a runner and receiver. Expect Freeman to earn more red zone opportunities and score more touchdowns than Phillip Lindsay this year. That all adds up to prioritizing Freeman in drafts because he's going several rounds later than his talented but injured teammate.

THE STORY OF A SEASON

He came from seemingly out of nowhere. Undrafted free agent Phillip Lindsay had an eye-opening training camp and parlayed it into a spectacular season. As highly touted fellow rookie Royce Freeman struggled with a high ankle sprain, Lindsay took off, showing acumen as both a pass catcher and between-the-tackles runner. Lindsay shocked the world and finished 13th among running backs with 192 rushes for 1,037 yards, 35 receptions for 241 yards and 10 touchdowns. Freeman, on the other hand, had just 130 rushes for 521 yards, 14 receptions for 72 yards and 5 touchdowns. As fantasy general managers and human beings, we are drawn to underdog success stories. Unfortunately, Lindsay’s fairy-tale rookie year ended unhappily when he fractured his wrist in Week 16. With a projected 3-to-4 month recovery, most fantasy general managers believed that Lindsay would be fine for camp and pick up where he left off. But things have taken a turn for the worse.

Lindsay's Injury HAS Lingered

Footballguys’ own Cecil Lammey -- who hosts a drive-time radio show in Denver -- reported Lindsay’s recovery hasn't gone according to plan. Lindsay was held out of OTAs, reportedly for precautionary reasons. He’s expected to be ready for training camp, but Lammey also questions if we will see him ready to go at that time. The team continues to take an optimistic tenor with the media. “It’s a particular injury where they tell me everything’s gone well and they just don’t want it to get bumped on yet,” head coach Vic Fangio said. “He can go out there and do everything. They just want to use this time and the next five weeks to make sure he’s ready to go.” Even if Lindsay is a full go, his injury underscores the need to be more cautious with the 190-pounder.

7/20/19 Update: Phillip Lindsay has been cleared to practice and has “looked good” according to his head coach.

ROYCE ON A ROLL

Meanwhile, Freeman was able to stick his foot in the door while Lindsay was out and to impress the new coaching staff led by Vic Fangio. Freeman was a commanding presence in OTAs and observers noted he looked great both running and receiving. They also noted the increase in work that Freeman was doing in practices in the passing game. Ryan O’Halloran of The Denver Post believes the rushing split between the backs should be closer to equal this season. He said of the timeshare, “If Freeman can improve, the rushing attempts should be close to 50-50.” The split makes sense in order to both give Freeman more opportunity and to limit the wear and tear of the smaller-framed Phillip Lindsay.

BLOCKING SCHEME WILL SET FREEMAN FREE

One of the best developments for the Broncos this offseason was not the acquisition of a player, but of a coach. Offensive line guru Mike Munchak, who wanted to be closer to his daughter, joined the staff. Munchak has had great success with making the most out of his personnel. Most recently, he worked with the Steelers’ offensive line that contributed to the success of both James Conner and LeVeon Bell. The Broncos’ offensive line has been a sore spot since their Super Bowl win in 2016 and in terms of personnel remains among the bottom third of the league according to Footballguys colleague Matt Bitonti. However, the same was true of the Steelers’ patchwork offensive line before Munchak arrived. One thing that Munchak does well is adapt the blocking scheme for the style of his runners, not something every coach is willing to do. “You can’t ask these guys to do things that they just can’t do,” Munchak said in a recent interview. “I’ve had a good background over the years with Chris Johnson and Eddie George. I’ve been around a lot of good running backs like Le’Veon Bell, a lot of guys that do a lot of things differently. For me, it’s easy. I just adjust to how they run the ball and what schemes are working for them and the type of linemen that I have.” If Munchak can work his usual magic on this line and can incorporate zone blocking schemes that also account for the strengths and weaknesses of its runners, both Freeman and Lindsay stand to benefit greatly. Freeman, in particular, excels in zone concepts, much in the way he did in college in Oregon.

2019 PROJECTIONS

Royce Freeman

Phillip Lindsay

Final Thoughts

Assuming Phillip Lindsay makes it back from his wrist injury for at least part of training camp, he was too productive last year to presume anything other than a full-blown committee with Royce Freeman. However, that's a big if and Freeman is still the more compelling fantasy asset because he has the talent to push for significant playing time, too. One of the mistakes fantasy managers make is assuming what happened in Year N is likely to repeat in Year N+1. We fail to properly accept the year-to-year volatility that's the norm. With a new coaching staff, a new blocking scheme, and a reversal of fortunes in their respective health status (Freeman is healthy, Lindsay is not), Freeman is in line for major work and should be favored over Lindsay in short yardage. But more importantly, if Lindsay does struggle to get back in training camp, Freeman has the talent (and a clean slate with new coaches) to emerge as the lead back -- in the same way most expected him to do as a rookie.

OTHER VIEWPOINTS

Brad Evans of Yahoo Sports believes Phillip Lindsay’s fantasy value is questionable due to injury:

“Lindsay is recovering slowly from offseason wrist surgery and is doing some cardio work, but hasn’t been able to catch any footballs during OTAs or mandatory minicamp. That could trickle into the full-blown training camp when it opens in Dove Valley in late July.”

Patrick Driscoll of Last Word on Pro Football thinks we should be cautious when considering Lindsay in our drafts:

“With all of the uncertainty surrounding Phillip Lindsay, it’s hard to say that he is worth his current fantasy draft-stock. I’d be more inclined to take a wait and see approach with Lindsay in fantasy football drafts this summer.”

The Staff at CBS Sports project Royce Freeman to become a flex option with the potential for more if Lindsay were to be out of the picture:

“He was a disappointment as a rookie, but Freeman can still be a factor this season, even in a complementary role to Lindsay. And if Lindsay suffers a setback with his wrist or gets hurt again, Freeman could become a weekly starter in all formats.”

Lauren Carpenter of The Fantasy Footballers calls out Freeman as a name to remember in drafts:

“With Lindsay looming in the shadows getting ready to return to full strength, there is no shame in admitting that Freeman may be a scary grab for your squad. Just remember that he is taking the reps instead of Lindsay, a new head coach may lighten Lindsay’s workload to keep him healthy once he’s back, as well start pushing for Freeman to see more action to justify his high draft pick.”