Can D.J. Moore Lead the Panthers in Receptions in 2019?

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THREE REASONS D.J. MOORE WON’T LEAD THE TEAM IN RECEPTIONS

1. Christian McCaffrey will continue to be heavily used in the passing game.
2. Curtis Samuel will also see his role expand, cutting into Moore’s potential targets.
3. Norv Turner doesn’t lock on one target as a play caller.

SUMMARY

While Moore won’t lead the team in targets, there’s a good probability he’ll finish second in target distribution, behind only Christian McCaffrey. Also fortuitous is the fact that Moore will be asked to run more routes that draw on his after-the-catch ability. That will be enough to lead to a slight-but-healthy bump in his numbers. No matter if Cam Newton or Will Grier is at the helm for the Panthers, the timing-based offense that Norv Turner has incorporated should be one that is a perfect fit for Moore and helps him build on a magnificent rookie year. Moore’s current ADP in the sixth round is justified, but expect it to creep higher as the summer wears on. It would be unwise to target Moore, in spite of our optimistic outlook for him, earlier than the fifth round of 12-team drafts.

FAIR TO EXPECT MOORE?

Moore finished 2018 as the second-best rookie receiver in PPR scoring, bested by only Calvin Ridley. 55 catches for nearly 800 yards was an impressive start for the young receiver, especially when you consider he wasn’t used full-time until after week eight. Heading into 2019, and with Devin Funchess off the roster, excitement abounds that Moore could force more of a split in targets with Christian McCaffrey and become a true lead wide receiver from a fantasy perspective. While Moore may be the team’s leader at the wide receiver position in targets, it’s unreasonable to believe that he will end up the team’s leader in receptions.

MCCAFFREY STILL THE MAN

Unfortunately for Moore’s fantasy general managers, without a significant injury to Christian McCaffrey, the offense and subsequent volume of passes will continue to flow through their star running back. McCaffrey had a nearly 23 percent share of the team’s passing opportunities in 2018. While that percentage is probably unsustainable, it’s unlikely to be adjusted much, given how successful the offense was running through McCaffrey. In an early off-season press conference, Head Coach Ron Rivera signaled these intentions. When asked about who would be the team’s leader in receptions in 2019, he stated, “If you were gonna ask, 'Who's the No. 1?', I'd probably say Christian right now." Given McCaffrey’s three-down utility and how his presence does not telegraph the intentions of the offense, the coaching staff has no reason to make a change.

NORV NOT CHANGING

It’s been noted by many analysts in the fantasy community that Norv Turner tends to not have a true number one receiver that gets peppered with targets, as is the case on some other teams. In his last three offensive coordinator jobs with the Chargers, Browns, and Vikings, when injuries did not change the plan, it is true that Turner’s top wide receiver targets tended to be close to each other in terms of reception totals. That also held true last year when D.J. Moore beat out Devin Funchess by a mere three targets, 82-79. Ron Rivera explained this by stating, “...12 (personnel), you've got two wide receivers. 22 (personnel), you've only got one. And we have different packages in that, so it's unfair to say, 'That's the true No. 1.' Now, if the guy does step up and he catches 100 balls, that's the guy.” The mandate is to spread the ball around and keep defenses guessing. That’s great real football strategy, but it makes it difficult to predict who will be the priority fantasy receiver week in and week out.

SUDDENLY SAMUEL

The Panthers have made it abundantly clear they want to see more from Curtis Samuel this year as he plays the outside spot. Health has been a concern in his short career; but when healthy, Samuel has proven to be a dynamic play-maker. While there are extra targets to go around with Devin Funchess gone, the distribution of the vacated targets should be fairly even, as was previously noted. Even Moore himself told a reporter, "Just being out there, you don't know who gonna get the ball. Anybody can make a play at any time. ... You really won't know who the clear-cut No. 1 is." The plan seems to be to give Samuel a similar opportunity to Moore. It will just depend on if he can stay healthy to capitalize on this critical third year of his career.

CAN CAM SHOULDER THE LOAD?

Cam’s throwing shoulder has been a concern the past two seasons. Re-aggravating the injury last year led to Newton being deactivated once the Panthers were out of playoff contention. He noted in a video blog that the injury meant he was unable to throw more than 30 yards downfield and defenses were able to capitalize because of it. A postseason cleanup procedure seems to have gone well, and Newton is once again throwing a full-size football. While the shoulder condition seems to be one that could reoccur, the team has taken the precaution of adding a backup that can keep the offense going. West Virginia’s Will Grier was taken in the third round by the Panthers. While he’s not got the same arm talent of Cam Newton, Grier is an anticipatory and timing thrower, which is exactly the type of offense that Norv Turner is building. It sounds stunning to say, but in some ways, Grier may be an even better long-term fit for what the Panthers want to do. At the very least, he can keep the offense operational, something prior backups Taylor Heineke and Kyle Allen were unlikely to do.

HOW WILL MOORE BE UTILIZED?

Moore operates primarily as the flanker but did run 25 percent of his routes from the slot last year. He was asked to run primarily screen and drag routes, routes that are shorter and tend to not lend to huge after-the-catch opportunity. As Moore keeps growing as a route runner and can demonstrate improvement against press-man coverage, expect the Panthers to trust Moore to run deeper patterns this year, such as crossers and slants. This development should improve both yardage and touchdown totals for the young wide receiver.

2019 PROJECTIONS

THOUGHTS FROM THE FOOTBALLGUYS MESSAGE BOARD

Dr. Dan says:

“I think DJ Moore will get a number of targets, but I think he’s a little overhyped for 2019. I'm not sure the TDs will be there in 2019. I actually like him more if Grier is throwing the ball than Cam.”

skinfanjon thinks Moore is a secondary wide receiver for fantasy teams:

"A reasonable expectation for this year seems like around 70/1,000/5 with some rushing stats on top. So maybe around 225 PPR points, which was in the Golladay neighborhood last year, I believe. In other words, a solid WR2 year incoming."

JoeJoe88 sees major upside with D.J. Moore in the future:

"One important thing to remember about Moore is he didn’t even start getting starter reps last year until what, Week 7? I think he put together a very solid rookie season and showed flashes of being a top 10 guy eventually. He led all receivers last year in forced missed tackles per reception. To put what his value is to me in perspective, I wouldn’t take any wide receiver in this years draft class over him."

OTHER VIEWPOINTS

Ian Hartitz of The Action Network thinks Moore has the potential to do great things this season:

“The only thing working against one of the league’s bright young talents is a not-so-great track record of receiving production in Carolina’s offense.”

Josh Norris of NBC Sports believes it is Curtis Samuel, not D.J. Moore, who will come out of 2019 as the Panthers’ most productive fantasy receiver.

“I’m not going to compare him to a young Stefon Diggs. I will not do that with Curtis Samuel. But there are shades, there are vibes, that Curtis Samuel gives off in this offense and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s the Panthers’ leading receiver in 2019.”

Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus sees Moore as an impending breakout waiting to happen:

“Well, clearly, Moore is a highly talented receiver on the verge of a massive uptick in volume. He’s likely to draw a tougher cornerback schedule next year, but that should be more than made up for by the target-increase. Moore will rightfully be one of this coming fantasy season’s most hyped assets.”