Is Andrew Luck Primed for Another Top-5 Finish?

Photo: USA Today Sports

THREE REASONS Why ANDREW LUCK Will Be A Top-5 Quarterback Again

1. His shoulder injury is no longer a concern.
2. When healthy, Luck has a stellar track record of top finishes.
3. The offensive group in Indianapolis is perhaps his best to date.

SUMMARY

When healthy, Luck is always in the mix to finish as the best fantasy signal caller. From his offensive linemen to his receivers, tight ends, and running backs, Luck probably has the best supporting cast of his career. He appears to be entering the year with no lingering concerns about his shoulder, which is a huge relief. The former Stanford Cardinal is currently being taken in the fourth round, around the likes of Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers. He is a safer commodity than Watson thanks to a better offensive line and is without the adjustment concerns that come with Rodgers’ coaching staff change. For those who prefer not to gamble on middle or late-round quarterbacks, Luck is a perfect choice.

INJURIES NOT LINGERING FOR LUCK

This time last year, there was much hand-wringing over Andrew Luck’s recovery from a shoulder injury sustained initially in Week Three of the 2015 season. Luck missed much of that year, reaggravated the injury in 2016 against Denver, and sat out the entirety of 2017 after deciding to go through with offseason surgery.

Despite the trepidation of the fantasy community, Luck rebounded magnificently in 2018, finishing fourth among quarterbacks in most league settings. Film study shows Luck was tentative to trust his arm at times at the beginning of the season, but built confidence and delivered the football with increasing velocity as the year progressed.

This offseason, he encountered a minor calf strain injury and decided to rest it through OTAs. He said it poses no threat to his availability for camp activities and that he is just being careful so as not to cause a more significant injury. “Things can be stubborn sometimes,” Luck told The Indianapolis Star. “I certainly don’t feel as young as I once did, but am certainly also being conservative with this. It’s one of the lessons I learned from my shoulder…A lot less anxiety in my life than before. I think trusting myself and trusting the process.” When asked how his throwing arm was feeling, Luck said, “I’ve thrown significantly, sort of off my feet to make sure I don’t aggravate anything but keep my arm in shape certainly.”

ALL THE LUCK

As the table above shows, in the years that Andrew Luck has not been dealing with his shoulder injury, he’s finished as a Top-10 quarterback. Outside of his rookie year, he has always finished within the top five. That’s made all the more impressive by his questionable supporting cast and subpar offensive line throughout many of those seasons.

ANDREW’S BAND

An offensive line that had subjected Luck to unnecessary punishment in years prior surrendered only 18 sacks last year and has found cohesion. In addition to better protection, Luck has arguably the best collection of skill position players of his career. T.Y. Hilton remains Luck’s top target, but for the first time in a while, he may have more assistance in the receiving group. Rookie Parris Campbell was drafted to operate primarily from the slot and will likely be better than Chester Rogers from day one. Big-bodied Devin Funchess will presumably play X receiver and could be used like a tight end at times. He gives Andrew Luck another much-needed sizeable target in the red zone. Deon Cain is behind schedule because of an ACL tear in his rookie year, but if he can get in snaps this year, he’s another player to watch.

The running back tandem of Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack aren’t well-rounded backs, but they compliment each other perfectly. In the style of the Philadelphia Eagles, the Colts have shown that a committee approach at running back can be optimal.

The tight end combination of Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron are as good as it gets. Both enter the year at full health. Two tight end sets with both in the lineup will be incredibly stressful on opposing defenses. Remember, Luck has generated productive fantasy seasons with less formidable personnel. It stands to reason that though these improvements seem small individually, they combine to have a significant impact.

2019 PROJECTIONS

OTHER VIEWPOINTS

The CBS Sports Staff view Luck as the player who could potentially finish as the top fantasy quarterback this year:

“Luck could finish as the No. 1 Fantasy quarterback this season, and the only other quarterbacks you can argue are better than him on Draft Day are Patrick Mahomes II, Aaron Rodgers and maybe Deshaun Watson.”

Ryan Hawks of Last Word on Pro Football predicts Luck is a lock to finish among the top five at his position:

“... Luck played some of his most efficient football last season, despite not even being back to one hundred percent physically. The offense only got better this offseason, and his surgically repaired shoulder should allow him to be in as good of shape as ever. Luck has a great shot at being the top quarterback in fantasy next year.”

In an article comparing Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers as fantasy quarterbacks, Clutchpoints’ Hunter Noll concluded that Andrew Luck wins out:

“Overall it’s pretty clear that Andrew Luck has the edge over Aaron Rodgers when it comes to fantasy football in 2019. He has better weapons and the most pass-friendly offense in football.”