Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
FanDuel: Allen ($7,700) + Brown ($5,900) = $13,600
DraftKings: Allen ($6,500) + Brown ($5,500) = $12,000
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 26 ranked pass defense allowing 270.2 yards per game
Game Total - 39
Implied Totals - Bills at 28 points and Dolphins at 11 points
Game Line - Buffalo Bills -17
The Buffalo Bills are at home this weekend as they face the struggling Miami Dolphins on Sunday for a Week 6 AFC East matchup. The Dolphins appear to be tanking and are struggling in all phases. They are winless in 2019, and a huge underdog on the road this week. The Bills have the second-highest implied total (28) of the week, and they are going to put points on the board in this contest.
Allen is a streaky type of player, and when he is on, he is very productive for fantasy purposes. He has five passing scores and seven interceptions to go with 1122 yards passing in 2019. He is buoying his fantasy numbers with his ability to run with the ball, and that keeps him as a starting quarterback. Allen has accumulated 158 yards rushing and has scored three times this year.
The Dolphins have allowed 14 scores through the air, which are third-most in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 9.7-yards per attempt which is highest in the NFL. They have also yielded 21 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and only 12 teams in the NFL allow more.
Let’s try to apply a touch of color to those numbers to see what they mean. The Dolphins have defended 142 total passes this season, by far the fewest across the league. The Dolphins allow a touchdown on 9.86 percent of throws they defend, and that is the highest rate in the NFL.
They have allowed a 20-plus yard passing play on 14.8 percent of passes they have defended. Only the Giants allow these plays at a higher rate (15.4 percent) than the Dolphins. The Dolphins are getting gashed via the pass, and that is with the least amount of volume in the league. If the Bills are forced to throw, even a touch more, it will open the door to a massive game for the Bills passing attack.
Lastly, no team in the NFL has fewer sacks than the five the Dolphins have registered. The Dolphins have not been able to apply pressure on the quarterback, and we will see a comfortable Allen in the pocket on Sunday. He should be able to pick apart the Dolphins secondary with ease.
Brown is the first option in the Bills passing attack. He is a speedster capable of taking the top off the defense in a flash, but he is not just a speed only guy as he is an excellent route runner. Brown has seen 39 targets in five games, and he has caught 28 passes for 390 yards and a score. He is the vertical option in the Bills passing attack, and he will have chances to make plays in this game.
Brown is currently questionable with a groin injury, but he did participate in a limited fashion on Wednesday. Monitor his status throughout the week to ensure he plays Sunday, and if he does, he is an excellent GPP play in Week 7.
Pivot: Tight end Dawson Knox ($4,800 at FanDuel and $3,300 at DraftKings) has not been heavily involved in the offense to this point, but his price is so low which allows for spending up elsewhere. He only has 18 targets in 2019, but the script is so positive he is worth looking at, and potentially worthy of the throw of a dart.
Wide receiver Cole Beasley ($5,600 at FanDuel and $4,700 at DraftKings) is the Bills short-to-intermediate passing game option. He has 39 targets and 27 catches for 267 yards in 2019. The matchup is excellent, and Beasley is another Bills receiver worthy of selection.
FanDuel: Goff ($7,800) + Kupp ($7,800) = $15,600
DraftKings: Goff ($6,200) + Kupp ($7,400) = $13,600
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 27 ranked pass defense allowing 271.2 yards per game
Game Total - 54
Implied Totals - Rams at 28.5 points and Falcons at 25.5 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Rams -3
The Los Angeles Rams are on the road versus the Atlanta Falcons in Week 7, and they are a three-point road favorite in this matchup. This game has the highest total of the week (54), and the implied number for the Rams has them over four scores (28.5). Goff and the Rams passing attack should have a big game against the Falcons this week.
Goff has been up and down in 2019, but he is throwing for plenty of yardage, and it seems a matter of time in terms of the Rams having “that” game. In that sense, the Falcons come along at a perfect time as they have not stopped anyone from throwing the ball on them.
Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has 227 yards and three touchdowns in Week 4 versus Atlanta. In Week 4, the Falcons surrendered five touchdowns and 426 yards to Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. Last week it was Kyler Murray’s turn to get healthy. He threw for 340 yards and three scores on Atlanta.
The Falcons have given up 15 scores through the air which is second-most in the NFL. They are surrendering an 8.6-yard average which is third-highest in the NFL. Also, they have given up 24 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and only three teams in the NFL have yielded more.
Pressure seems to be rattling Goff, forcing him to get off his landmarks quickly and creating chaos in the pocket. That should not be an issue this week, though, as the Falcons have only registered five sacks to date. No team in the NFL has fewer sacks in 2019 than the Falcons.
Kupp has emerged as the primary weapon in the Rams passing game. He has 69 targets in the first six games of the 2019 season. Kupp has 50 targets over the past four games, and he has caught 33 passes for 356 yards and four scores over that span. The script is incredibly positive for Kupp, and he should be able to exploit this matchup in a significant way.
Pivot: Wide receiver Robert Woods ($7,300 at FanDuel and $5,900 at DraftKings) sees enough volume to warrant consideration in this potential shootout. He has 36 targets over the past four games, and he has caught 21 passes for 252 yards over that span, but he has not scored. If Goff can settle in and get comfortable in the pocket, then Woods may go off in this contest.
Wide receiver Brandin Cooks ($6,700 at FanDuel and $5,400 at DraftKings) has had a quiet season as he has not made plays down the field as he has in the past. However, if Goff has time to allow routes to develop, then Cooks could have a big day on Sunday.
Tight end Gerald Everett ($5,900 at FanDuel and $3,700 at DraftKings) has had a few big games this season, and he may be worthy of consideration at his salary. He has 26 targets over the past four games, catching 16 passes for 209 yards and a score.
Kyler Murray + Larry Fitzgerald
FanDuel: Murray ($7,700) + Fitzgerald ($5,600) = $13,300
DraftKings: Murray ($6,700) + Fitzgerald ($6,100) = $12,800
Facing the No. 28 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 31 ranked pass defense allowing 285 yards per game
Game Total - 49.5
Implied Totals - Cardinals at 23.5 points and Giants at 26 points
Game Line - Arizona Cardinals +3
The Arizona Cardinals are on the road versus the New York Giants on Sunday for a Week 6 NFC matchup that has the potential to be a high-scoring affair. This game has the third-highest total of the week (49.5), and the Cardinals got the passing game going last week, and they should keep things rolling positively in this matchup.
Murray started the 2019 season in a bit of an up and down manner, but the offense started to show signs of life before last week’s matchup versus Atlanta. Murray torched the Falcons, throwing for 340 yards and three scores, and also ran the ball for 32 yards. He has thrown for seven scores and four interceptions to go along with 1664 yards in his first six games this season.
Murray has also used his feet well over the past four games, registering 221 rushing yards and scoring twice. He is bolstering his floor with his rushing totals, but he should pick apart a very porous secondary this week.
The Giants have given up 10 scores through the air, and only nine teams in the NFL have allowed more. They are surrendering a 9.3-yard average which is second-highest in the NFL. The Giants have given up 30 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are most in the NFL.
They have also given up seven passing plays of 40-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL. Consider that the Giants have only defended 195 passes (11 teams have defended fewer attempts), and the numbers they are allowing to the passing game are showing that there is significant upside in this matchup as the Cardinals are going to throw the ball.
Fitzgerald is one of the best wide receivers to ever play in the NFL, and he is the first option in the Cardinals passing attack. Fitzgerald has been targeted 52 times through the season’s first six games, catching 35 passes for 427 yards and two scores. He should be able to exploit this matchup and is an excellent GPP option in Week 7.
The game script is very positive for the Cardinals passing game, and the pace at which both teams can score points makes this a very intriguing stack.
Pivot: Wide receiver Christian Kirk ($5,600 at FanDuel and $5,000 at DraftKings) has missed two games with an ankle injury, and he is questionable as of this writing. If he can play, he is an excellent option when considering his salary and the incredibly positive script for the passing attack.
Wide receivers KeeSean Johnson ($4,600 at FanDuel and $3,900 at DraftKings) is a worthy option at his salary. He is risky and has not been able to get things going this year, but the matchup makes him an intriguing option.
FanDuel: Jones ($7,200) + Engram ($6,800) = $14,000
DraftKings: Jones ($6,100) + Engram ($6,500) = $12,600
Facing the No. 29 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 30 ranked pass defense allowing 281.2 yards per game
Game Total - 49.5
Implied Totals - Giants at 26 points and Cardinals at 23.5 points
Game Line - New York Giants -3
The New York Giants are at home versus the Arizona Cardinals in Week 7, and they are a three-point home favorite in this matchup. This game has the third-highest total of the week (49.5), and the implied number for the Giants has them at almost four scores (26). Jones and the Giants passing attack should have a big game against the Cardinals this week.
Jones took over for veteran quarterback Eli Manning in Week 3, and while he has struggled for stretches, he has shown that he is capable of making throws to help keep the offense moving. He has had several tough matchups over the past two games (Minnesota and New England), and he has looked like a young quarterback in those games.
However, the Cardinals defense is not playing well, and the Giants offense has the opportunity to have an excellent day when considering the game script and pace at which the Cardinals play. The Cardinals offense will put up points, and that will force Jones to keep pushing the ball down the field, and that makes the Giants passing game an intriguing option this week.
The Cardinals have given up 16 scores through the air which are most in the NFL. They are surrendering an 8.5-yard average which is fourth-highest in the NFL. Also, they have given up 25 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and only two teams in the NFL have yielded more.
The Cardinals struggle to handle the tight end, and let’s look at what they have done this year. They gave up six catches, 131 yards, and a score to T.J. Hockenson in Week 1 against the Lions. Ravens tight end Mark Andrews lit them up for eight catches, 112 yards, and a score in Week 2.
Panthers tight end Greg Olsen hit the Cardinals for 75 yards, two scores, and six catches in Week 3. In Week 4, it was Seahawks tight end Will Dissly’s turn. He went for seven catches, 57 yards, and a score. The Cardinals slowed the Bengals tight ends in Week 5, but Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton did miss tight end Tyler Eifert in the red zone.
It was Falcons tight end Austin Hooper’s turn to light up the Cardinals defense last week, and he delivered. He had eight catches for 117 yards and a score, and this week it is Engram’s turn.
Engram is one of the primary weapons in the Giants passing game. He missed Week 6 with a knee injury, but he practiced in full yesterday, and reports are that he is on track to play Sunday.
He has 48 targets in his first five games of the 2019 season. He has registered 33 catches for 373 yards and two scores this season, and this matchup screams for nothing but positive things for him. He has a chance to have a gigantic game versus the Cardinals in Week 7 and should be a centerpiece for a GPP lineup given the matchup.
Pivot: Wide receiver Golden Tate ($6,100 at FanDuel and $5,800 at DraftKings) is a dangerous weapon as he runs incredibly precise routes, and makes defenders miss with ease. He started slowly in Week 5 (coming off a four-game suspension) but saw nine targets last week, catching six for 102 yards and a score. This is an excellent matchup for him, and he should post great numbers this week.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
FanDuel: Brissett ($7,300) + Hilton ($7,600) = $14,900
DraftKings: Brissett ($5,600) + Hilton ($5,900) = $11,500
Facing the No. 14 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 24 ranked pass defense allowing 268 yards per game
Game Total - 48.5
Implied Totals - Colts at 25 points and Texans at 23.5 points
Game Line - Indianapolis Colts -1
The Indianapolis Colts are at home as they take on the Houston Texans in a Week 7 AFC South matchup. This game has the fifth-highest total of the week (48.5) and is a matchup that is intriguing as both teams are forecast to score three-plus touchdowns. It is not out of the realm of expectations to see both teams going over, and that means value.
Brissett has played excellent football to start the 2019 season. He has thrown for 10 touchdowns and 1062 yards to go with 66 yards rushing and a score on the ground in five games. He is also taking care of the football as he has only thrown three interceptions in 2019.
The Texans have given up 11 scores through the air which are seventh-most in the NFL. The Texans have defended 237 passes which are third-most in the NFL. They are defending a lot of passes which speaks to their offenses ability to put points on the board, and that is where the risk and reward lie in this matchup.
This stack is reliant on the Texans scoring at a pace that forces Brissett to challenge the defense with his arm, and for that to happen, you need to believe that the Texans offense can score on the Colts defense. The Colts are the league’s No. 22 ranked pass defense, and they have surrendered 10 scores through the air. It seems as if there is a path for both teams to get points on the board here, but if the Texans offense sputters, then it will harm this stack.
Hilton is easily the first option in the Colts passing attack, and he is capable of making plays all over the field. He was injured and missed the Week 4 game versus the Raiders and was quiet in a Week 5 low-scoring win over the Chiefs (risk!!), and the Colts bye was last week so he should come into this game healthy and ready to go.
He has been targeted 29 times in the four games he has played, catching 24 passes for 232 yards and four scores in that span. If the offenses get opened up in this game, then Hilton is sure plenty of targets as he and Brissett have developed excellent rapport.
There is the risk that the Colts will try to slow the Texans and play the kind of game they did against the Chiefs two weeks ago, and that makes this stack risky. However, I think that this could be a shootout, and that makes this stack a high-upside GPP-play in Week 7.
Pivot: Tight end Eric Ebron ($5,300 at FanDuel and $3,900 at DraftKings) has not built on last’ year’s success, but he can make plays and this matchup points to a potentially big game for the Colts. There is risk, but there is a path for production as well. Ebron does not see much volume with only has nine catches in 2019. However, he has scored twice and is capable of making good things happen when he gets the ball into his hands. He is a high-risk play inside a high-risk stack, and that kind of contrarian thinking could pay off.
RB/DST Stacks
Tevin Coleman + 49ers Defense
FanDuel: Coleman ($6,200) + 49ers ($5,000) = $11,200
DraftKings: Coleman ($5,600) + 49ers ($4,100) = $9,700
Facing the No. 20 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 28 ranked run defense allowing 134 yards per game
Game Total - 41.5
Implied Totals - 49ers at 26 points and Redskins at 15.5 points
Game Line - San Francisco 49ers -9.5
The San Francisco 49ers are on the road versus the Washington Redskins on Sunday for a Week 7 NFC matchup. The 49ers are a 9.5-point road favorite, and the game script has Coleman and the running game getting plenty of work in this contest. Coleman is an explosive runner, and he is capable of ripping off huge runs, and that makes him intriguing in this play.
Only eight teams in the NFL have defended more running plays than the Redskins, and opposing runners are generating production through the amount of volume they are getting. The game script calls for a similar expectation with the 49ers up and running in this game.
The Redskins allow a 4.6-yard average, and only 11 teams across the league allow a higher average. The Redskins have given up six running plays of 20-plus yards, and only one team in the NFL has allowed more. It is reasonable to expect Coleman to hit the Redskins with a huge gain or two in this game.
The Redskins are going to struggle to handle the 49ers defensive line, specifically when they try to throw the ball. The game script has the Redskins dropping back to pass to catch up, and the 49ers defense should be able to generate production through pressure.
The 49ers have produced 17 sacks in 2019, and only eight teams in the NFL have more sacks to this point in the season. They have had their bye week, and the rate they generate sacks (3.4 per game) is third-highest in the NFL. The 49ers also have seven interceptions in 2019, and that is fourth-most in the NFL.
The game script looks excellent for Coleman and the 49ers defense, and it is not difficult to see the 49ers ahead in this game while shortening the game via the rushing attack. Both sides of this stack have a chance to be extremely productive, and it is an excellent option for GPP play in Week 7.