DFS Roundtable: Running Back Chat Week 8

Chad Parsons's DFS Roundtable: Running Back Chat Week 8 Chad Parsons Published 10/24/2019

Who do you trust and you are you fading in Week 8?

Chalk

Deeper Dive

JASON WOOD

Chris Carson -- Carson trails only Leonard Fournette in my rankings this week, as the Seahawks face a Falcons team reeling in every way. Assuming Matt Ryan misses the week, Seattle should have an easy time and dictate game script; and that means a run-heavy performance.

Latavius Murray -- Murray is a must-start if Alvin Kamara misses the week, but is only a fringe GPP play if Kamara is active. The Cardinals defense is susceptible in multiple ways, and the Saints will have an easy time dictating tempo regardless of who's in the backfield.

Ty Johnson -- Johnson isn't a special runner, but with Kerryon Johnson out with a knee injury, and the Lions facing the Giants, Ty Johnson is a compelling value play. His cost is so cheap, using Johnson unlocks value elsewhere. He's worth considering in both cash and GPP builds.

Royce Freeman -- Freeman doesn't rate as a top-12 option this week in either cash or GPPs. It's impossible to know whether he or Lindsay will lead the team in snaps, and the Colts defense is opportunistic. I'll pass.

PHIL ALEXANDER

Chalk

  • Saquon Barkley (at Detroit) - Barkley's ankle briefly forced him out of last week's game but it looked like he was in a lot of pain. I want to see him practice all week before I'm confident it wasn't an unsustainable Toradol high that allowed him to finish against the Cardinals. If he's a full participant by Thursday, however, he's a great play regardless of price against a Detroit rush defense that got wrecked by Dalvin Cook in Week 7.
  • Chase Edmonds (at New Orleans) - If we know Johnson will sit, Edmonds is an auto-start even in a tough matchup against the Saints. His price simply doesn't reflect his upside in what should be a high-scoring indoor game.
  • Latavius Murray (vs. Arizona) - Assuming Kamara sits through the Saints Week 9 bye, Murray is way too cheap with the Saints favored by 9.5-points against Arizona. He handled 86% of New Orleans' backfield touches in Kamara's absence last week, putting his role right there with the bell-cow running backs in the upper-most salary tier.
  • Christian McCaffrey (at San Francisco) - There is enough value out there to fit him if you wanted to in cash, though there may be better ways to spend this week. If you multi-enter GPPs without 15-20% exposure, be prepared for a miserable Sunday. McCaffrey's price and opponent don't matter.
Deeper Dive
  • Marlon Mack (vs. Denver) - The Colts will feed Mack any time they're in a positive game script. Indianapolis happens to be a six-point home favorite against Denver this week, so if you think Vegas set the right line, this is a great week to use Mack in GPPs. Guys like Murray and Edmonds will shade his ownership from the same salary tier.
  • Ty Johnson - Johnson's size-adjusted speed, college yards-per-carry, and ability as a pass-catcher are intriguing. But we haven't seen enough to use him in cash games yet and I'm afraid he'll get piled on in GPPs, which would make him an easy fade.

JAMES BRIMACOMBE

Saquon Barkley (at Detroit) – He escaped Week 7 with any setbacks so I think even against the Lions defense he is worthy of my trust this week. He always has the potential to break a run or a pass for a long gain or even touchdown so that right there equals no fade for me.

Austin Ekeler (at Chicago) – The Chargers seem to have gotten worse as a team since Gordon ended his holdout and started taking touches away from Ekeler. I feel like the Chargers will have to rely on Ekeler in this defensive battle against the Bears. I can see Ekeler once again seeing plenty of targets from Rivers when starts feeling the pressure.

Chase Edmonds (at New Orleans) So much trust here in Edmonds as the Cardinals are bringing in other running backs and actually just signed Alfred Morris. I think Edmonds is in line for some heavy usage against the Saints this week.

Latavius Murray (vs. Arizona) Much like the Edmonds situation with Arizona if the star player in Kamara is out for the Saints, Murray is the play again this week.

Christian McCaffrey (at San Francisco) Maybe not the best pay up in cash this week but you will have to have some exposure in tournaments. When the matchup gets tough that just means that the Panthers are going to have to rely even more so on their star player.

Devonta Freeman (vs. Seattle) Freeman has been a fade for me before the season started and almost every week during the season. The Falcons are a bad football team right now and getting Freeman 15+ touches even with Ito Smith out does not seem like a priority for them. I continue to want to roster running backs that are getting the volume and Freeman just does not check that list for me.

Marlon Mack (vs. Denver) The Broncos look somewhat like a lost team right now and with them selling Sanders it looks like they might already be looking on to next season. The Colts are on the other side of this trend, they look hungry and look like a team that wants to put teams away with a balanced offense. Mack could be in line for a lot of touches in this matchup and is definitely in the trust category for me.

DAN HINDERY

The three running backs I trust the most this week are Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson, and Leonard Fournette. I will be looking to get two of these three into my lineups if possible.

Barkley looked like himself last week in his first game back and handled 21 touches. He has a great matchup this week against the Lions. Detroit has allowed over 35 fantasy points (DK scoring) to opposing running backs in three straight weeks. With Barkley playing a true workhorse role, he has the upside to justify the lofty price tag this week.

Leonard Fournette and Chris Carson are great plays every week just due to sheer volume. When adding carries plus targets, Fournette has had 32, 30, 26, and 31 over the past four weeks. That is an average of 29.8 per game. With that type of volume, it is hard for Fournette to fail. Facing the reeling Jets on a short week doesn’t hurt either. Carson isn’t too far behind from a volume perspective. Over the past four weeks, he has had 26, 29, 28, and 25 totals (carries plus targets). He also has a great matchup against the awful Falcons defense. You can slot these two into cash game lineups and feel good about getting a minimum of 50 touches between the two of them with a realistic upside of 60+.

Houston has been tough against running backs but Josh Jacobs has been playing at such a high level in recent weeks, he may be a guy we can play regardless of matchup. He turned small holes into a couple of huge runs last week all on his own. He is very affordable ($5,800 on DK) for a guy who has handled 53 touches in his last two games.

Marlon Mack is interesting as well because it feels like he is due for some positive touchdown regression. He has 53 touches over the last two weeks with positive game scripts and didn’t get into the end zone. The Colts are 6-point home favorites, so things set up well for Mack to have a solid game.

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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