DFS Roundtable: Ride the Wave or Time to Fade

Chad Parsons's DFS Roundtable: Ride the Wave or Time to Fade Chad Parsons Published 12/05/2019

Pick one player from each position who is producing above their season average of late to take a stand as riding their wave or fading them for Week 14.

Kyle Allen
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Mitchell Trubisky

James White
Devin Singletary
Miles Sanders
Raheem Mostert

D.J. Moore
Allen Robinson
Calvin Ridley
Robert Woods
Cole Beasley
DeVante Parker
Dede Westbrook
James Washington
Anthony Miller

Mike Gesicki
Kaden Smith
Dallas Goedert
Jared Cook

PHIL ALEXANDER

Kyle Allen
I don't exactly love any of the three players in this cohort. If forced to choose one, I'm taking Allen, whose dangerous pass-catchers are playing in a dome against a suspect Atlanta defense.

Miles Sanders
Assuming Jordan Howard remains sidelined, Sanders is a low-key bell-cow on Monday night against the Giants. His Week 13 breakout may have come against the hapless Dolphins, but his setup is almost equally desirable this week. Philadelphia is favored by 8.5 points at home and Sanders is coming off a game in which he handled 92% of the team's running back opportunities.

Anthony Miller
Like Sanders, Miller won't help you on the main slate, but you'll want to play him in Showdown and primetime lineups. Even if Taylor Gabriel is back for this game, the continued absence of Trey Burton leaves Chicago with no other viable pass-catchers over the middle. Only Christian McCaffrey, Julian Edelman, and D.J. Moore have commanded more targets than Miller's 33 since Burton went on IR in Week 11.

Mike Gesicki
The target distribution in Miami has become increasingly narrow since Preston Williams was lost for the season. DeVante Parker has been the main beneficiary, but Gesicki has at least six targets in every game since Week 9. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the type of quarterback who can put Gesicki in the position to do what he does best -- run really fast downfield and jump over opposing safeties to make long catches.

DAN HINDERY

Kyle Allen is a fade for me after watching how last week’s game played out. He seems to have lost some confidence and I am worried about Carolina’s motivation and focus down the stretch. The matchup against Atlanta is also a potential trap. While the season-long numbers look friendly for opposing quarterbacks, Atlanta’s defense has been well above-average against the position since their bye. The quarterback pricing has also become fairly condensed and we aren’t getting a big discount to play somebody like Allen. He is only $600 cheaper than Deshaun Watson on both sites, for example.

I will ride the wave with James White. He has a chance to essentially be Tom Brady’s WR2 down the stretch behind Julian Edelman. The Patriots wide receiver position is a bit of a mess and this is the time of year it seems Brady always starts to lean more heavily on White. His matchup is also a strong factor. The Chiefs have given up more receiving yards to opposing running backs than any team in the league.

I am buying Alshon Jeffery to continue to put up numbers down the stretch. He had a monster game last week against the Dolphins and gets an even better matchup in Week 14 against the Giants. Only the Buccaneers have proven poorer at stopping opposing wide receivers over the past five weeks. Jeffery saw 16 targets last week and while that might be too much to expect, he should at least see double-digit targets this week. The Eagles are beat up at wide receiver and Zach Ertz isn’t likely to be 100% again. Everything points to Jeffery staying hot.

I am still not buying Jared Cook. The volume has been incredibly hit or miss. He has gone from 10 targets one week to 2 the next. He also isn’t playing an every-down role. He played just 29 snaps last week against the Falcons. Plus, I am happy to fade just about everyone who faces this elite San Francisco defense.

JASON WOOD

Kyle Allen
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Mitchell Trubisky

We've seen the Ryan Fitzpatrick movie a million times. He is capable of stretches of outright fantasy brilliance and quickly follows with bouts of disastrous box scores. It's impossible to know when the good becomes the bad, and so Fitzpatrick is an absolute avoid in cash lineups and doesn't profile as a particularly attractive GPP option, either.

James White
Devin Singletary
Miles Sanders
Raheem Mostert

James White had been the definition of high-floor, low-ceiling until the last two games, where he laid an egg and then exploded for 40+ fantasy points last week. The Patriots game scripts are the most difficult to handicap, and therefore White remains what we thought he was three weeks ago -- he's perfectly fine for cash builds if you're playing it super safe, and absolutely avoidable in tournaments.

D.J. Moore
Allen Robinson
Calvin Ridley
Robert Woods
Cole Beasley
DeVante Parker
Dede Westbrook
James Washington
Anthony Miller

This is a fertile list and worth focusing on beyond a single player. D.J. Moore, Allen Robinson and DeVante Parker stand out from the crowd. All three are clicking with their quarterbacks and are seeing high usage rates and capitalizing on high-level situations. They're all worth building into lineups for the foreseeable future.

Mike Gesicki
Kaden Smith
Dallas Goedert
Jared Cook

Dallas Goedert has been disappointing, and cannot be relied upon. The Eagles offense is out of sync generally, and even though Zach Ertz is banged up, Goedert's failings have had more to do with his own mental lapses than lack of opportunity.

Justin Howe

Ryan Fitzpatrick has hardly been priced up for a tantalizing matchup with the Jets’ burnable secondary. Fitzpatrick has racked up 280 yards and multiple touchdowns in 4 of his last 7 games - including a Week 9 date with these Jets. And this week, he’ll likely face them without star safety Jamal Adams, who’s counted on for a ton of downfield help behind a shaky group of cornerbacks. Vegas isn’t crazy about this game, but just about every game-script possibility projects Fitzpatrick to 40+ attempts.

Now that we know Jay Ajayi is likely just a reserve, Miles Sanders should be treated as a full-on workhorse - though his price tag has yet to reflect that. He’s taken on 86% of Eagles snaps and 78% of running back touches over the past 3 weeks. In fact, he’s the only back over that span to draw a single target in the passing game. With 11+ rushes and 4+ targets in each of those games, Sanders looks poised to again dominate this backfield (fairly cheaply) regardless of game flow.
It’s hard to fully trust James Washington, with the Steelers in run-dominant mode and Devlin Hodges not throwing downfield much. But big things keep happening when their quarterbacks look Washington’s way. He’s topped 90 yards in 3 of his last 4 games, including 111 and a touchdown last Sunday. And his floor is palatable, too, with 49+ in 5 straight.
Jared Cook seems to have cemented himself high on Drew Brees’ priority list, with 26 targets (5 in the red zone) over 4 games since the bye. His usage tends to fluctuate along with his consistency, but his DFS price tag has really bottomed out and more than accounts for that.


Photos provided by Imagn Images

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