DFS Roundtable: Christian McCaffrey and Salary Thoughts

Chad Parsons's DFS Roundtable: Christian McCaffrey and Salary Thoughts Chad Parsons Published 11/28/2019

Comment on the below topics from a lineup building standpoint, cash vs. GPP lineups, and Week 13 storylines perspective:

  • Is Christian McCaffrey too expensive now? Or with the 11-game main slate, it feels worthwhile considering the positional drop-off? Who is the salary saver(s) to offset McCaffrey's budget hit this week?
  • Who will get the better of Lamar Jackson versus the San Francisco defense? Is Jackson a fade at his high salary? Will they need to rely on the pass more than the run?
  • Which low Vegas total is a sneaky shootout: Washington-Carolina, Tennessee-Indianapolis, Jets-Cincinnati, Chargers-Denver, Cleveland-Pittsburgh? Does this line of thought factor more into cash or tournament lineups?

chad parsons

If going with Christian McCaffrey, the lineup fallout is pretty severe this week as 3-4 low-salary options are a must to make the cap work. I like Miles Sanders as an RB2 but at least two others are needed to fit McCaffrey. The problem is the main slate has limited games and the drop-off at running back is pretty steep for value plays.

Lamar Jackson is the top quarterback overall value on the main slate board with only Patrick Mahomes II in the discussion if deviating. Jackson has at least 60 rushing yards in all but two games this season and has not thrown an interception in the past six games. The Patriots have been the toughest (by far) matchup for Lamar Jackson to-date and Jackson was *held* to three total touchdowns and 61 rushing yards. Jackson's floor is insanely high as even if they trail, it means more Jackson play-making from dropbacks and likely depending on his legs for chunk runs.

PHIL ALEXANDER

Is Christian McCaffrey too expensive now? Or with the 11-game main slate, it feels worthwhile considering the positional drop-off? Who is the salary saver(s) to offset McCaffrey's budget hit this week?

McCaffrey has been over $10K on DraftKings for the past four weeks and has delivered at least 30 fantasy points in each game. His price hasn't budged from last week and he gets a cupcake matchup against Washington at home, in a game Carolina is favored to win by double-digits. In cash games, click him first and figure out the rest. He should also be a significant part of your GPP plans.

It's easy enough to build a lineup around him using the returning Andy Dalton and his wide receivers, Tyler Boyd and/or Auden Tate, with all three priced as though Ryan Finley is still starting.

Who will get the better of Lamar Jackson versus the San Francisco defense? Is Jackson a fade at his high salary? Will they need to rely on the pass more than the run?

There hasn't been a good reason to fade Jackson in any game this season and you won't find one this week. He's scored at least 26 fantasy points in nine out of 11 games, yet somehow isn't the most expensive quarterback on the slate (DraftKings). Do your best to jam him into your cash game builds and make sure you're at least even with the field in tournaments.

Which low Vegas total is a sneaky shootout: Washington-Carolina, Tennessee-Indianapolis, Jets-Cincinnati, Chargers-Denver, Cleveland-Pittsburgh? Does this line of thought factor more into cash or tournament lineups?

Tennessee at Indianapolis probably has a better chance of shooting out, but with the news that Andy Dalton will reclaim his starting job, Jets at Bengals becomes more interesting. Dalton, Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, Joe Mixon, Sam Darnold, LeVeon Bell, Jamison Crowder, Robby Anderson, and Ryan Griffin are all reasonably priced in a game that could go back and forth between two lousy defenses.

DAN HINDERY

Is Christian McCaffrey too expensive now? Or with the 11-game main slate, it feels worthwhile considering the positional drop-off? Who is the salary saver(s) to offset McCaffrey's budget hit this week?

McCaffrey is fairly priced considering the matchup and I think you can fit him in. As Phil mentioned, the Bengals passing game provides some value. On FanDuel, there is enough value to fit him and his $11,000 salary in. D.J. Moore’s price has barely budged over there and he is just $6,800. He gives you WR1 upside at a WR2 price. Miles Sanders ($5,800) is also priced too low given the sweet matchup against Miami. Devante Parker ($6,000) is another strong value that helps you fit in McCaffrey. He has seen at least ten targets in three straight games and should again get a bunch of looks.

Who will get the better of Lamar Jackson versus the San Francisco defense? Is Jackson a fade at his high salary? Will they need to rely on the pass more than the run?

It is scary to fade Lamar Jackson but I think that is probably the right move this week. San Francisco is the #2 defense in DVOA and the 49ers have made some top offenses look terrible this season. It is important to note that Jackson destroyed a New England defense that has been every bit as good as San Francisco’s. It wouldn’t be a shock by any means if he stays hot and puts up big numbers again. However, there is a better chance of failure and his upside is probably more limited this week than any other. The 49ers may have the best defensive line in the NFL, which is a unique challenge for Baltimore. With his salary up and ownership expected to be extremely high, I am planning to be a bit underweight compared to the field on Jackson

Which low Vegas total is a sneaky shootout: Washington-Carolina, Tennessee-Indianapolis, Jets-Cincinnati, Chargers-Denver, Cleveland-Pittsburgh? Does this line of thought factor more into cash or tournament lineups?

In general, I try to make cash lineups that don’t need Vegas to be way off for my players to hit value. On the other hand, identifying and targeting potentially sneaky shootouts is one of the biggest keys to having success in GPPs. We saw a perfect example of that last week when the Jacksonville-Tennessee went over the Vegas total (42) by 20 points. If you stacked this game in tournaments, you won big.

The Jets-Bengals matchup this week is one that at least has a shot at shooting out. The Jets seem to have figured some things out offensively in recent weeks. They’ve scored 34+ points in each of their last three games. It is harder to find optimism in the numbers for the Bengals offense but this feels like a potential bounce-back spot with Andy Dalton back in at quarterback and Cordy Glenn finally returning to the lineup to provide some stability at left tackle. Glenn isn’t a star at this point in his career but the position had been such a disaster prior to his return that he is a massive upgrade. There is upside in stacking the Jets and running it back with Tyler Boyd or Auden Tate.
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