As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend and look for other opportunities.
Now that deep into the season, the public has become more in tune with the trends and strengths of every team. The public money trends toward being right more often than at the beginning of the season and spotting potential value becomes a bit more difficult.
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS
Public Trend – 75% of the public bets favor Atlanta
The Falcons fired up last week, putting 38 points on Washington on the road. Julio Jones finally found the end zone and Matt Ryan had 350 yards passing and 4 touchdowns. They rank 5th in total offense, averaging 412 yards and more than 28 points per game. The Browns hung tough against the red-hot Kansas City offense, but were outscored 19-6 in the second half. Their offense still struggles, and they are ranked 23rd producing just 347 yards and 21 points per game. Their defense has issues as well, and they allow nearly 28 points per game to their opponents. The coaches may have changed, but people still think of this team as the ‘Same Old Browns’ – and they are heavy on the Falcons to come into Cleveland and unload on them like they did Washington last week.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
Back to Back road games is hard on any team, and this week they travel to Cleveland where it will be cold with a chance of snow. The Falcons are just 1-2 against the spread on the road while Cleveland is 3-2 against the spread at home. Atlanta’s defense isn’t great, and they are ranked 28th in the league, allowing 412 yards per game. They are especially vulnerable to the run, allowing some big game to Christian McCaffery and Alvin Kamara, and allow 4.8 yards per carry and have give up 10 rushing touchdowns so far. Cleveland still has their struggles but they are improving as the season wears on. Beating Kansas City last week was a tall order for new head coach Gregg Williams, but road-weary Atlanta presents a more manageable opportunity. The public expects and other Atlanta blow-out, but the Browns at home with a 6 point spot is a very tempting counter-play.
NEW YORK GIANTS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports