NOTE: The pro projections below are first posted on Thursday, then updated on Saturday afternoon. On Thursday, commentary will be limited to early impressions. A more-detailed discussion of specific players will be added on Saturday afternoon.
Welcome back for Week 8 of Footballguys' new feature that uses a statistical model to project the roster percentages of "professional" tournament players on Draftkings. If you're curious about the full methodological details of the model, click here. The most important detail to keep in mind, however, is that the "professionals" in question were identified using a clustering algorithm and can be characterized by the following statement: Compared to the rest of the population, these 205 pros play more, they win more, and they do both consistently.
Quarterbacks
Below is the table for quarterbacks. In this and all subsequent tables, "Overall" is Steve Buzzard's projection of roster percentage. "Pros" is the model's projection of roster percentage for Draftkings pros only.
| Quarterback | Team | Salary | Overall | Pros |
| Jared Goff | LAR | 6000 | 11.8% | 14.5% |
| Patrick Mahomes II | KC | 7000 | 14.2% | 13.5% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 6100 | 10.9% | 10.6% |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 6400 | 10.2% | 10.5% |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 6200 | 8.1% | 7.0% |
| Jameis Winston | TB | 6000 | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 6300 | 6.5% | 4.7% |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 5600 | 3.6% | 3.9% |
| Derek Carr | OAK | 5200 | 2.6% | 3.7% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 6100 | 4.7% | 3.7% |
| Case Keenum | DEN | 5100 | 3.7% | 3.2% |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 5300 | 1.8% | 3.0% |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 5900 | 3.0% | 2.7% |
| Eli Manning | NYG | 4900 | 1.3% | 2.6% |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 5800 | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| Alex Smith | WAS | 5000 | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| C.J. Beathard | SF | 4900 | 1.6% | 2.2% |
| Josh Rosen | ARI | 4800 | 1.2% | 2.0% |
| Sam Darnold | NYJ | 4500 | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | 5700 | 2.1% | 0.8% |
Early Impressions
Another week, another recommendation to roster Jared Goff heavily. Presumably because of having a slightly tougher matchup, his salary decreased from Week 7 decreased by $600; which is great because said matchup isn't that much worse. With respect to factors that go into the projection model, Goff benefits from having what is likely to be the most highly rostered wide receiver corps on the Sunday Main slate. If they do well, then he has to do well by definition.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Goff remains the pick of the pro litter. And everything that's changed statistically since Thursday has moved in Goff's favor. His 4x value probability has increased from 28.6% to 29.4%. His wide receiver corps has seen their aggregate projected roster percentage increase from 39.2% to 41.4%. And the projected roster percentage for his opponent defense has decreased from 2.3% to less than 1.0%.
Eli Manning ($4,900, 1.3% Overall Roster Percentage, 2.6% Pro Roster Percentage)
It continues to amaze how a quarterback having his best statistical season since at least 2015 -- while playing behind an awful offensive line, mind you -- continues to get guff on the feed. At $4,900, Manning's one of the lowest-priced quarterbacks on the Sunday Main slate, yet with the seventh-highest 4x value probability. Washington cornerback upstart Quinton Dunbar is on the wrong side of questionable, which should open things up for Odell Beckham. Also, referring back to that Giants offensive line, Washington ranks 21st in Adjusted Sack Rate per Football Outsiders, so there's less of a threat than usual.
Running Backs
Below is the table for running backs:
| Running Back | Team | Salary | Overall | Pros |
| Todd Gurley | LAR | 9800 | 33.1% | 34.2% |
| James Conner | PIT | 7500 | 29.5% | 33.5% |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | 7100 | 24.1% | 23.8% |
| Isaiah Crowell | NYJ | 3700 | 14.9% | 17.6% |
| Phillip Lindsay | DEN | 5200 | 14.8% | 13.5% |
| Kerryon Johnson | DET | 5300 | 16.1% | 13.4% |
| Jalen Richard | OAK | 4200 | 14.2% | 13.0% |
| Marlon Mack | IND | 5400 | 12.5% | 8.9% |
| David Johnson | ARI | 6700 | 11.1% | 8.3% |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | 7300 | 13.3% | 7.7% |
| Raheem Mostert | SF | 3800 | 6.0% | 7.6% |
| Tarik Cohen | CHI | 5800 | 9.1% | 6.6% |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 8800 | 9.1% | 6.5% |
| Adrian Peterson | WAS | 4900 | 5.2% | 5.1% |
| Chris Carson | SEA | 4300 | Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags
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DraftKings
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Robbie Chosen
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A.J. Green
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Raheem Mostert
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C.J. Uzomah
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