Projecting the Pros on DraftKings: Week 8

Danny Tuccitto's Projecting the Pros on DraftKings: Week 8 Danny Tuccitto Published 10/27/2018

NOTE: The pro projections below are first posted on Thursday, then updated on Saturday afternoon. On Thursday, commentary will be limited to early impressions. A more-detailed discussion of specific players will be added on Saturday afternoon.

Welcome back for Week 8 of Footballguys' new feature that uses a statistical model to project the roster percentages of "professional" tournament players on Draftkings. If you're curious about the full methodological details of the model, click here. The most important detail to keep in mind, however, is that the "professionals" in question were identified using a clustering algorithm and can be characterized by the following statement: Compared to the rest of the population, these 205 pros play more, they win more, and they do both consistently.

Quarterbacks

Below is the table for quarterbacks. In this and all subsequent tables, "Overall" is Steve Buzzard's projection of roster percentage. "Pros" is the model's projection of roster percentage for Draftkings pros only.

Quarterback Team Salary Overall Pros
Jared Goff LAR 6000 11.8% 14.5%
Patrick Mahomes II KC 7000 14.2% 13.5%
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6100 10.9% 10.6%
Aaron Rodgers GB 6400 10.2% 10.5%
Andy Dalton CIN 6200 8.1% 7.0%
Jameis Winston TB 6000 7.0% 5.0%
Andrew Luck IND 6300 6.5% 4.7%
Matthew Stafford DET 5600 3.6% 3.9%
Derek Carr OAK 5200 2.6% 3.7%
Mitchell Trubisky CHI 6100 4.7% 3.7%
Case Keenum DEN 5100 3.7% 3.2%
Joe Flacco BAL 5300 1.8% 3.0%
Russell Wilson SEA 5900 3.0% 2.7%
Eli Manning NYG 4900 1.3% 2.6%
Cam Newton CAR 5800 2.4% 2.5%
Alex Smith WAS 5000 2.0% 2.3%
C.J. Beathard SF 4900 1.6% 2.2%
Josh Rosen ARI 4800 1.2% 2.0%
Sam Darnold NYJ 4500 1.2% 1.6%
Baker Mayfield CLE 5700 2.1% 0.8%

Early Impressions

Another week, another recommendation to roster Jared Goff heavily. Presumably because of having a slightly tougher matchup, his salary decreased from Week 7 decreased by $600; which is great because said matchup isn't that much worse. With respect to factors that go into the projection model, Goff benefits from having what is likely to be the most highly rostered wide receiver corps on the Sunday Main slate. If they do well, then he has to do well by definition.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Goff remains the pick of the pro litter. And everything that's changed statistically since Thursday has moved in Goff's favor. His 4x value probability has increased from 28.6% to 29.4%. His wide receiver corps has seen their aggregate projected roster percentage increase from 39.2% to 41.4%. And the projected roster percentage for his opponent defense has decreased from 2.3% to less than 1.0%.

Eli Manning ($4,900, 1.3% Overall Roster Percentage, 2.6% Pro Roster Percentage)

It continues to amaze how a quarterback having his best statistical season since at least 2015 -- while playing behind an awful offensive line, mind you -- continues to get guff on the feed. At $4,900, Manning's one of the lowest-priced quarterbacks on the Sunday Main slate, yet with the seventh-highest 4x value probability. Washington cornerback upstart Quinton Dunbar is on the wrong side of questionable, which should open things up for Odell Beckham. Also, referring back to that Giants offensive line, Washington ranks 21st in Adjusted Sack Rate per Football Outsiders, so there's less of a threat than usual.

Running Backs

Below is the table for running backs:

Running Back Team Salary Overall Pros
Todd Gurley LAR 9800 33.1% 34.2%
James Conner PIT 7500 29.5% 33.5%
Kareem Hunt KC 7100 24.1% 23.8%
Isaiah Crowell NYJ 3700 14.9% 17.6%
Phillip Lindsay DEN 5200 14.8% 13.5%
Kerryon Johnson DET 5300 16.1% 13.4%
Jalen Richard OAK 4200 14.2% 13.0%
Marlon Mack IND 5400 12.5% 8.9%
David Johnson ARI 6700 11.1% 8.3%
Joe Mixon CIN 7300 13.3% 7.7%
Raheem Mostert SF 3800 6.0% 7.6%
Tarik Cohen CHI 5800 9.1% 6.6%
Saquon Barkley NYG 8800 9.1% 6.5%
Adrian Peterson WAS 4900 5.2% 5.1%
Chris Carson SEA 4300 Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
Daily FF DraftKings Projections Stats Robbie Chosen James Conner Jared Cook Jared Goff A.J. Green Jordan Howard Travis Kelce Raheem Mostert Jalen Richard C.J. Uzomah Robert Woods
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