Philadelphia is miring through a tough season, but are touchdown home favorites in Week 12 despite a blowout loss last week. Zach Ertz is coming off a dud game and Carson Wentz failed to accumulate even garbage time production against the Saints.
Is Wentz worth stacking this week and if so, with which pass-catcher? On the flip side, the Eagles defense is reeling, is the smart play to so with Odell Beckham or Saquon Barkley against Philadelphia?
James Brimacombe: Philadelphia is miring through a tough season, but are touchdown home favorites in Week 12 despite a blowout loss last week. Zach Ertz is coming off a dud game and Carson Wentz failed to accumulate even garbage time production against the Saints. Is Wentz worth stacking this week and if so, with which pass-catcher? On the flip side, the Eagles defense is reeling, is the smart play to so with Odell Beckham or Saquon Barkley against Philadelphia?
Phil Alexander: The Giants are still an awful team despite back-to-back wins against the lowly 49ers and Buccaneers. The big spread in favor of Philadelphia is warranted and their offense is one to stack around Wentz, who threw for 278 yards and three touchdowns on the road when these teams met in Week 6.
Golden Tate's increased role could be troublesome for Zach Ertz, but maybe Ertz's Week 11 dud in New Orleans can be attributed to simple variance. He should get back on track against the Giants, who have allowed 75+ receiving yards to George Kittle and O.J. Howard in back-to-back games. Alshon Jeffery crushed this matchup the last time these teams faced off (12-8-74-2) and the New York's struggles to contain Mike Evans in Week 11 (7-6-120-1) suggest a repeat 25-point performance is within Jeffery's range of possible outcomes.
Saquon Barkley is in play every week due to his voluminous role in the passing game, but he owed a large part of his success last week to Tampa Bay's depleted rush defense. While it's early in the week to dial in on tournament exposure, I'm likely to end up with more Melvin Gordon and James Conner at RB1. The best way to attack the Eagles -- especially without cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills -- is downfield. Philadelphia has allowed 45% more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than league average over the past three weeks. Odell Beckham is the top-priced wide receiver (DraftKings) for a reason and Sterling Shepard is in play for GPPs.
Justin Howe: Philadelphia is miring through a tough season, but are touchdown home favorites in Week 12 despite a blowout loss last week. Zach Ertz is coming off a dud game and Carson Wentz failed to accumulate even garbage time production against the Saints. Is Wentz worth stacking this week and if so, with which pass-catcher? On the flip side, the Eagles defense is reeling, is the smart play to so with Odell Beckham or Saquon Barkley against Philadelphia?
Yes, Wentz and company look like rock-solid plays. Their exposures should dip with so many DFSers cursing their names all week, and those numbers are dwarfed by Wentz’s likelihood of hitting 4x value in tournaments. This remains a diverse, high-octane passing game that can win on all levels of the field and likes to throw in the red zone. As heavy home favorites, they’re projected to score early and often. Wentz-Ertz looks like a great stacking base, and Alshon Jeffery is a fine low-percentage play. He’ll see a lot of Janoris Jenkins, who’s run incredibly hot-and-cold against No. 1 receivers this year.
If you like the Giants’ chances of keeping the game within 10 points or so – and I absolutely do – then a Barkley/Beckham build isn’t a bad play at all. That’s a very concentrated offense, and those two will almost certainly account for virtually all of their Week 12 dynamism. Give the Giants 21-24 points, and Barkley/Beckham will have produced almost all of them.
BJ VanderWoude: Philadelphia is miring through a tough season, but are touchdown home favorites in Week 12 despite a blowout loss last week. Zach Ertz is coming off a dud game and Carson Wentz failed to accumulate even garbage time production against the Saints. Is Wentz worth stacking this week and if so, with which pass-catcher? On the flip side, the Eagles defense is reeling, is the smart play to so with Odell Beckham or Saquon Barkley against Philadelphia?
The Eagles season may be on the brink of disaster, but prior to last week, Carson Wentz's fantasy numbers had been rock solid. Wentz had 22+ fantasy points in six straight games and had thrown for multiple touchdowns and 275+ passing yards in each of those games. One down week against a Saints team that has disrupted the pace of opposing offenses with their own up-tempo attack, should not disqualify Wentz and his cohorts, especially when you consider Wentz's depressed salary. I feel the same way about Zach Ertz, as Ertz had been a model of consistency coming into last week's game against the Saints. He has five games with at least 20+ fantasy points (PPR) and has proven that he has the highest weekly ceiling of any tight end in the league right now, evidenced by his 43.5-point outburst against Dallas two weeks ago. A Wentz/Ertz stack makes a lot of sense, as the Giants have performed admirably against opposing passing games, but they have been beaten by top tight ends. The Giants have only allowed one touchdown to opposing tight ends, but that tight end was Ertz in their first meeting (7/43/1). OJ Howard caught five passes for 78 yards, George Kittle caught nine passes for 83 yards and Jordan Reed caught seven passes for 38 yards.
I am also on-board with stacking Barkley and Beckham this week against the Eagles, although I think you want to do so without Eli Manning. Beckham could very well rack up 10 catches for 100 yards and a touchdown, but asking Manning to throw for 300+ yards and three touchdowns is most likely asking too much. Barkley is the highest salaried running back on the main slate, and with good reason. He's coming off a 40 point performance in his first meeting with the Eagles, rushing for 130 yards and a touchdown, and just missing out on a 100-yard receiving game, totaling nine catches for 99 yards on 12 targets. Barkley and Beckham offer high-end ceilings and should combine for 20+ targets and 300 yards or so of total offense.
Will Grant: I agree with BJ that the Saints game was an outlier for Wentz and that he's been solid since returning week 3. Before the disaster last week he had six consecutive games with two or more passing touchdowns with four of those games having more than 300 yards passing and only three interceptions before last week. The Giants gave up almost 370 yards passing to Tampa Bay last week and represent a 'get right' opportunity that Philadelphia desperately needs, especially if Dallas beats Washington on Thanksgiving as predicted. You can pencil in Wentz for 275+ yards and at least 2 touchdowns this week. I love a Wentz-Ertz stack this week as Ertz has been on fire as of late too. Two weeks ago against the Cowboys, he put up 14 receptions for 145 yards and two scores. Two games before that he hung 138 receiving yards on the Panthers. With 77 receptions so far and 10.4 yards per reception so far, Ertz is the logical choice to stack with Wentz.
Barkley is a 'must start' for any cash game, and given the fact that Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt are off this week, there's a good chance that Barkley will be the top fantasy running back this week. The Eagles have the 26th ranked passing defense, but they've only allowed 16 passing touchdowns this season which ranks 10th in the NFL, just 3 back from the top spot. While Barkley seems like a good play, Beckham might be a guy to fade this week as his upside looks a little limited.