Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 4 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each particpant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.
OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT
Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2
THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 4 DRAFT:
1.01 Dan Hindery
1.02 Justin Howe
1.03 Sean Settle
1.04 James Brimacombe
1.05 Alex Miglio
1.06 Devin Knotts
DRAFT RESULTS
draft evaluation
Dan Hindery - Slot 1
Overview - Dan's draft came alive with the back to back picks of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski in the 2nd and 3rd round. Carolina has yet to allow a tight end to top 27 yards, but if anyone is going to buck that trend, it's Gronkowski. Dan's selection of Tyreek Hill in the 5th round is a steal, especially in a home game. Maybe people are scared of him matching up with Josh Norman this week, but to get the 3rd ranked fantasy wide receiver in the last round of this draft could be money in Dan's pocket. I would rather have seen Dan take a different running back other than Jay Ajayi. He had a minor knee injury and rushed for 16 yards on 11 carries last week against the Jets. There's no guarantee that his knee problems are behind him. That pick seems a bit risky in my opinion. Ty Montgomery would've been my pick there.
Dan answers questions about his draft
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
For the first time all season, it feels like running back is actually deeper than wide receiver and quarterback. For example, Melvin Gordon fell all the way to 5.06 and Joe Mixon (who I like this week) went undrafted. With the emergence of all these talented rookie running backs, we suddenly go at least 12 deep at the position. Thus, there wasn’t any sense of urgency to pounce on the top backs early like there usually is. Due to the depth at running back, I strongly considered taking Tom Brady or A.J. Green at 1.01. Green was especially attractive because he should have a big game against the Browns. The Bengals intent on feeding him targets (13 last week) and Cleveland doesn’t have the cornerback talent to stop him. In the end, I took the safer route however and went with Ezekiel Elliott at 1.01. He has by far his best matchup of the year after facing three straight difficult run defenses right out of the gate. Dallas is a big home favorite against a Los Angeles Rams defense that has given up over 30 Draft points to the opposing team’s running backs in each of the past two weeks.
The one position I knew I wanted to address in the first three rounds was quarterback. Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Drew Brees are all in attractive spots. Matt Ryan faces a tough Buffalo defense but still projects fairly well at home. After that, it falls off a cliff in terms of quarterbacks with obvious week-winning upside. I wanted to make sure I locked in one of the top three passers by pick 3.01 and was very happy that Brady fell to me there.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
I will cheat a little bit and name two players. I’m most excited about the Tom Brady/Rob Gronkowski stack. Brady has averaged over 412.5 yards and 4 touchdowns over the past two weeks while Gronkowski has averaged 7 catches, 102.5 receiving yards and a touchdown over the same stretch. There aren’t a quarterback and pass catcher with a higher weekly touchdown upside than Brady and Gronkowski. If Brady goes off for his third straight big game, it’s very likely that Gronkowski will have been on the receiving end of plenty of his passes and probably scored at least once.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Tom Brady was great value at the 2.06/3.01 turn. As mentioned above, quarterback has arguably the biggest drop off in terms of floor and ceiling this week and Brady has averaged over 400 passing yards and thrown 8 total touchdowns over the past two weeks. The Patriots implied team total is 28.8 points, so the Patriots aren’t expected to have too much trouble getting into the end zone against the Panthers. The Carolina defensive line should severely limit the Patriots running game, which will force Brady to again try to win the game through the air and he is likely to have a hand in most or all of the Patriots scoring.
4. If your team doesn't win on Sunday, who do you suspect will have beaten you?
Every team looks almost equally likely to win this week with the most balanced set of rosters so far this season.. But James probably drafted my favorite team. He was able to snag my #1 wide receiver (A.J. Green) and my #2 running back (Kareem Hunt). DeAndre Hopkins and Leonard Fournette were rock-solid picks in the 3rd and 4th round. James did get caught on the wrong end of the quarterback run by waiting until the final round for Andy Dalton, but it’s not hard to envision the Dalton-Green stack paying off. Especially after seeing the Jacoby Brissett-T.Y. Hilton duo shred the Cleveland secondary last Sunday.
Justin Howe - Slot 2
Overview: Justin's roster is loaded with talented players, but I don't particularly like some of their matchups. Matt Ryan and Devonta Freeman at home are usually a safe bet, but the matchup against Buffalo could be problematic. The Bills have allowed only two touchdowns this season (one rush, one pass) and they just knocked off Denver in Week 3. Ryan and Freeman may put up decent numbers, but they may not be as strong of a play as you think. You could argue a similar scenario with LeVeon Bell at Baltimore. Forget last week, Baltimore is not going to roll over against a division rival at home. Prior to the debacle against Jacksonville in London, no running back topped 40 yards rushing on the Ravens. Bell is starting to regain his form, but he's not there yet. I want to see him have a strong game before making him a staple of my 5-man lineup. He did score a touchdown last week, but he has a tough matchup that won't be easy.
Justin answers questions about his draft
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
As usual, my goal was to secure two of the top five running backs on the board, and I think I succeeded. I don't love paying up at receiver on DRAFT, because (a) there's always more second-round RB value on the board as most drafters try to stay balanced, and (b) at least one mega-upside WR always falls into Round 3. So, I stayed the course and opened with LeVeon Bell and Devonta Freeman. I preferred Ezekiel Elliott, but was happy to take Bell for his dual-threat and breakout potential. He sees as much volume as anyone, and I'm confident the Steelers will be able to (mostly) control the pace against the Ravens' barely-there offense. Freeman brings me both floor and ceiling in All told, I love my 1-2 punch and wouldn't trade either for any WR on the slate not named Antonio or A.J.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
Emmanuel Sanders is one of my favorite Week 4 plays, and I'm glad I was able to grab him. Of course I preferred Mike Evans, whom Sean sniped a pick before me. (I knew that kind of value wasn't to be.) And one could build a strong case that Tyreek Hill would've been the better play. Still, I stand by Sanders. He isn't sexy, but he's a target monster - - and boasts the best chance of any Bronco to produce touchdowns this week. He's often Trevor Siemian's first read in the red zone, and thus far he's scored on two of his four targets from there. (Demaryius Thomas, never a touchdown threat despite his commanding size, has only drawn one.) I'm expecting a line around 7 catches, 80 yards, and 1 score - very stout numbers from my final-round WR2.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I really liked snagging Devonta Freeman in Round 2. Again, there were only two (maybe three) receivers I'd rather have, and with all of them long gone, Freeman looked like a no-brainer here. He brings me a solid floor and a fantastic ceiling; he's often the true engine of the Falcons offense, and he carries their highest touchdown potential. Given their 28.25-point Vegas projection, I'd actually be surprised if Freeman DIDN'T see multiple touchdown chances while threatening 100 scrimmage yards.
4. If your team doesn't win on Sunday, who do you suspect will have beaten you?
I'm confident in my team, but gun to my head, Devin or James is going to win this thing. Devin's Round 1/2 turn was top-notch, and I don't see a stronger team at the top. James came away with my top RB and WR of the week, then added high floors with DeAndre Hopkins and Leonard Fournette.
Sean Settle - Slot 3
Overview - I can get on board with this team. I like nearly every pick, but one - his first pick of Julio Jones. It's hard to not like the Falcons stud receiver, but as I mentioned in Justin's draft, I don't like the matchup against Buffalo, granted it is at home, but Buffalo's defense is not one to take lightly and I have a feeling Matt Ryan and the Falcons offensive line will soon find out. The way to stop Ryan and the passing game is pressure and confusing coverages. These are two areas Buffalo does well. Keep in mind, Sean McDermott knows Atlanta's offense well from his five years in Carolina. I'm not gravitating to Jones this week as a result. Every other pick has good value and/or a good matchup. LeSean McCoy should be able to move the ball on Atlanta, plus his 18 receptions leads the Bills. He'll be a key component in this game. Dalvin Cook is home vs. Detroit, Mike Evans is home vs. NY Giants and Matthew Stafford is an excellent quarterback (tied for 2nd in the league with 7 touchdowns) in what could be a favorable game script for the Lions passing offense. If Matt Ryan can find consistent success against Buffalo, this team has a chance to finish at the top.
Sean answers questions about his draft
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My goal this week was to build a balanced roster rather than the WR dependent roster I put together last week. I went with Julio Jones over Antonio Brown with the third pick as my goal was to stack him with Matt Ryan. Unfortunately, Ryan was taken one pick ahead of me and I had to settle for Matthew Stafford against a Vikings secondary that has given up a lot of yards in its first 3 games. There was a very early run on running backs again and I had to settle for Dalvin Cook and LeSean McCoy. The Vikings seem committed to using Cook no matter who the quarterback is and the Bills will ride a healthy McCoy as far as they can.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
I am most excited about Dalvin Cook going into this week. The Vikings have shown a commitment to the run, especially with Sam Bradford out. The game script was closer to an Adrian Peterson game during his time in Minnesota and Cook has delivered. The Falcons also gave up over 100-yards rushing to Freeman last week and Cook has a similar skill set. After the aerial display, the Vikings put on last week we can assume the Lions will sink their safeties and put their focus on Diggs and Thielen. This should open up the field for Cook to have a big day.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
The best value this week comes from Mike Evans. Evans was drafted in the second-round last week and fell all the way to the fourth this week. If DeSean Jackson can break a long one it should draw the defense to his side and allow Evans ample space underneath to run. Do not count out his ability to take the top off the defense either as he is capable of breaking off his own deep routes. Evans comes with the big-play ability for a Tampa team that is desperate to get back into the win column.
4. If your team doesn't win on Sunday, who do you suspect will have beaten you?
If any team is to come out on top it will be Devin’s. He put together a very balanced team and has a plus matchup stack with Wilson and Baldwin. As long as Baldwin’s injury concerns are behind him, I expect a big week from Devin’s team.
James Brimacombe - Slot 4
Overview - I really like the team James asembled, but in order for him to reach pay dirt, he's going to have to get good production from Andy Dalton against Cleveland. This is a divisional game, so there's a lot of former game logs to look at to come to a conclusion on whether or not he can and will have success against the Browns. The Dalton/A.J. Green stack is an interesting one, and perhaps one that will elevate James to this week's prize. Examining this matchup further, the Browns have allowed 5 touchdown passes in three games. Dalton has 2 touchdown passes of his own in three games. In his previous four games at Cleveland, Dalton has 180 yards and 2 touchdowns, 220 yards and 2 touchdowns, 117 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception and 206 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. Not super numbers, in fact they seem rather average. At home against the Browns he has fared better with 308 yards and 2 touchdowns, 234 yards and 3 touchdowns, 86 yards and 3 interceptions and 93 yards and 3 touchdowns. History suggests Dalton won't have a high yardage game, but two touchdowns seems very doable. A.J. Green faced Cleveland once last year (at home) and he posted 8-169-1. His three previous games vs. Cleveland were 5-128-1, 4-53, 5-49 and 3-23. Joe Haden is no longer in the picture for the Browns, which might make Green's day a bit easier. Outside of the Cincinatti stack against Cleveland, James has excellent options including DeAndre Hopkins against Tennnessee. Hopkins is the only player to have 6+ catches in every game this year. Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette are scoring and yardage machines. I have no problems with those picks. Like I said, this could come down to Andy Dalton's ability to find success against the Browns and bring A.J. Green along with him. If the two connect for multiple scores, James will be among the top teams this week.
James answers questions about his draft
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I was going to wait regardless at quarterback until the 5th round and match him up with one of my wide receivers for the QB/WR stack. I went with an RB/WR/WR/RB start to the draft making sure I could load up at those positions.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
I drafted A.J. Green so I naturally went with Andy Dalton. The selection got a rise out of some of the other staffers as Dalton has looked bad so far this year. In Dalton’s last 4 games versus Cleveland, he has had 2 games where he has had 3 touchdowns and the two other games he had 2. So I guess I am most excited about Dalton’s multi-touchdown game this week.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Leonard Fournette felt like a good value pick in the fourth round as running backs are always at a premium in this DRAFT setup. Although the Jets shut down Jay Ajayi last week, they are still the 7th worst team defending opposing running backs and the Jaguars haven’t been shy about giving Fournette a heavy amount of touches. Hard to not pass on a guy in the 4th round who should see 20+ touches that is in a plus matchup.
4. If your team doesn't win on Sunday, who do you suspect will have beaten you?
I think Dan’s team has the most upside with the Brady and Gronkowski stack paired with my favorite running back on the week Ezekiel Elliott. He also has Jay Ajayi in a nice bounce-back spot versus the Saints, and Tyreek Hill who is always in line to break a long play.
Alex Miglio - Slot 5
Overview - Alex drafted a solid team throughout. He has at least three players capable of multiple touchdowns, which makes him a candidate to be on the top at the end of the week. The Drew Brees stack with Michael Thomas worked out well last week. There's no reason why it can't be successful this week against Miami in London. Odell Beckham is finally healthy and should be a big part of the Giants offense against the Buccaneers who are struggling with injuries on the defensive side of the ball. The Bucs had difficulties keeping the Vikings receiving duo at bay last week. They may find an equally difficult task trying to stop Beckham and the Giants. Christian McCaffrey has turned into the Panthers leading receiver with injuries to Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin. A tough matchup against New England could result in a similar strategy of getting the ball out quicker and into McCaffrey's hands. I don't necessarily think McCaffrey will have many scoring chances, but 80 total yards and 5+ receptions seems doable. Carlos Hyde scored two touchdowns last week in a high scoring game against the Rams. San Francisco has a capable offense that can score points. They will also give up a lot of points, which favors a game script that benefits a muti-purpose back like Hyde. This team has the ability to put up points and be at or near the top at the end of the week.
alex answers questions about his draft
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Find the plus matchups and exploit them. The Dolphins just got mauled by the Jets. The JETS. Drew Brees and Co. are going to put up a ton of points in London. The Patriots, meanwhile, have bled fantasy points at every position, and the Panthers have finally begun to leverage Christian McCaffrey's talents.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
Drew Brees. This is going to be one of those weeks where he inexplicably lays an egg, isn't it.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Odell Beckham is healthy, Eli Manning is forcing him the ball, and he has a good matchup. He is my top receiver this week, so getting him four spots in felt great.
4. If your team doesn't win on Sunday, who do you suspect will have beaten you?
Brady and Gronkowski make a fantastic stack, and Dan took my favorite running back this week in Zeke Elliott. I think Hindery will have a huge week.
Devin Knotts - Slot 6
Overview - Devin's team is one of the better teams drafted this week. He nailed it with Todd Gurley and Antonio Brown at the turn of the first and second round. Adding complementary pieces and a Seattle stack that includes Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin looks to be icing on the cake. The only concern I have is Seattle's ability to score (even against Indianapolis) and Baldwin's groin injury that could slow him down. Seattle may have had a big game last week at Tennessee, but they are still only averaging 16 points per game. Their offensive line has improved some, but they are still one of the worst units in the league. Devin will likely finish on top this week if Seattle can take care of business and win a game they should win. At 1-2 it's not a foregone conclusion.
Devin answers questions about his draft
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Being on the turn, you kind of just have to take what is available. I was honestly hoping for two running backs with Gurley and then one of the running backs that was taken before me as I did not imagine that Antonio Brown would make it to the turn. Overall this worked out terrifically as I got my number one wide receiver and a top running back. The second turn, I am a big fan of stacking in the six man leagues as I feel you need that upside to win and if the Wilson/Baldwin stack works out, f it goes a long way to a win.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
Todd Gurley is the player that I am most excited about. Dallas has largely been untested this season as they have faced two of the worst run offenses in football in the Giants and Cardinals and in the one game where they faced a decent offensive attack they allowed 119 yards and a touchdown to C.J. Anderson. Todd Gurley should be in a great spot this week.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Whenever you can get Antonio Brown at the first/second round turn, I feel it is incredible value. The matchup is a tough one going up against Baltimore as Brown does not have over 100 yards against this team in his last four games, but he has gone over 80 yards in four of his last six games against Baltimore and have scored a touchdown in three of his last six games. He is a player who at minimum is not going to kill my lineup, and still is matchup proof and can win me this week.
4. If your team doesn't win on Sunday, who do you suspect will have beaten you?
Dan seems to be the popular pick with the Brady/Gronkowski stack, but I am not worried about his back half of the draft. James is the team that I’m worried about as Kareem Hunt is excellent value for how great he has been this season. Then to add A.J. Green who has absolutely torched the Browns in recent seasons has me concerned. I still think I win this week though as taking Andy Dalton was a huge mistake for James as Dalton is not a guy who I would typically stack with as he will be going to A.J. Green or having an awful game this week.
projections
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com