Team Outlook
No NBA team lost more of its on-court identity (and talent) than the Thunder did when Kevin Durant left town. Arguably the most skilled and dynamic scorer of our time, Durant will take his otherworldly talents to Oakland, leaving big playmaking concerns in Oklahoma City. With the trade of Serge Ibaka, the Thunder has now jettisoned three of its four core pieces from its 2011-12 NBA Finals run (including James Harden).
But it’s not as though the Thunder are now a barren fantasy wasteland. Westbrook is a top-three DFS play every night he laces up, and it’s exciting to imagine his scoring potential as the team’s unquestioned alpha dog. Victor Oladipo arrives from Orlando, and while he carries some questions about scoring ability and consistency, his outlook should improve immensely over what was already a promising NBA start. And two young bigs, Enes Kanter and Steven Adams, are primed to take even further steps forward. Billy Donovan certainly has his work cut out for him, but there are at least intriguing pieces in play behind Westbrook.
Projected Starting Lineup
Point Guard – Russell Westbrook
Westbrook’s usage has always peaked (obviously) when Durant has missed time, but the extent has been wild. Last year, across eight games without Durant, Westbrook’s usage rate registered an eye-popping 39.0. A point of reference: Kobe Bryant’s 2005-06 is the current season-long high at 38.7. Recall that Lakers team and its suffocating dependence on Bryant’s playmaking, and you’ll get an idea of the volume Westbrook projects to in 2016-17.
Of course, when we invoke Bryant, we worry about efficiency while carrying the team post-Durant. But Westbrook’s drop-off isn’t likely to be too pronounced; in fact, we might not see one at all. Over the last two years, Westbrook has actually posted a better true shooting percentage, even with increased volume, in games with Durant off the court:
Situation,Minutes,FGA/Gm,FTA/Gm,TS%
W/Durant,3281,18.4,12.6,49.8%
W/out Durant,1776,22.9,9.9,53.7%
The bottom line is that, while a huge overall fantasy surge isn’t likely, it’s safe to expect career near-highs in Westbrook’s minutes and scoring. Naturally, we’ll probably see modest regression in assists and turnovers, but not overwhelmingly so. He certainly shouldn’t drop enough to knock him from daily discussion as a top-3 play. Just prepare for sky-high ownership across the industry day in, day out.
Shooting Guard – Victor Oladipo
The Thunder’s larceny of Oladipo makes for a near-ideal best-case scenario after Durant left town. Much of Oladipo’s appeal comes from his defense, but there’s plenty of room for offensive growth. In fact, there’s moderate Jimmy Butler appeal here, even if Oladipo doesn’t project to be quite as efficient. But even with questions about his efficiency, Oladipo is set up for his best fantasy season by a mile. His volume will be through the roof while “replacing” Durant, and DFSers will be thrilled to revel in his count stats. After last year’s All-Star break, Oladipo averaged a line of 19.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 2.2 steals – all while shooting 47% from the field (35% from three).
What’s exciting is that Oladipo will now play next to an elite point guard, one who will not only find him when he’s open, but create new openings with his own dynamic play. Orlando’s Elfrid Payton is ascending and has his strengths, but could never create openings in the backcourt like Westbrook can. Oladipo also won’t have to worry about a drop in pace: the Thunder and Magic took nearly the same number of possessions per game last year. Oladipo has the look of an elite asset at a hard-to-fill DFS spot. Be patient as he (and his DFS cost) adjust to the new team, then be ready to capitalize when it comes together.
Shooting Guard/Small Forward – Andre Roberson
A defensive specialist, it’s frankly tough to find any fantasy utility in Roberson at all, aside from salary relief when he’s in a up-tempo matchup. Roberson doesn’t produce scoring (7.8 points per 36 minutes last year) or assists (1.1), and he’s a decidedly subpar shooter. As a result, generally only offers any DFS value whatsoever when he sees huge minutes, and even then it’s somewhat rare. He managed a few double-digit scoring performances in the playoffs, but he won’t be facing Golden State’s monstrous pace in do-or-die games very often in 2016-17.
Power Forward – Ersan Ilyasova
Ilyasova is a starter likely to lose serious minutes to the overall rotation. He’s settled into a niche as a three-point specialist, with declining returns in efficiency and in rebounds (a defensive rebound rate that tied with James Harden among regulars at 143rd). He may carry situational scoring value, though, so he’s worth monitoring throughout the year.
Center – Steven Adams
Far more valuable to the Thunder than to fantasy players, Adams is merely a situational DFS play – and not an especially strong one. He doesn’t block shots (just 1.1 per game last year with 31 blockless games), nor does he create or sink many free throws (1.3 FGM per game over his career). It was nice to see him ramp up his scoring in the playoffs, from 8.0 to 10.1. That looks sustainable going forward, but that kind of uptick isn’t enough to make Adams much of a daily consideration. And while he’s expected to see a solid volume boost post-Serge Ibaka, it may not be a remarkable one. It’s more likely the team turns increasingly to Adams’ backup, Enes Kanter, to provide scoring punch. Adams will definitely be usable, but as more of a matchup play and mid-priced center option.
Key Bench Players
C Enes Kanter
The No. 3 overall pick of Utah’s in 2011, Kanter has certainly found a niche. He rarely starts games, and that likely won’t change with Ibaka out of town – Kanter is Steven Adams’ backup, not a power forward. But he’s a completely different brand of player than Adams, who’s a finisher and rim protector and not significantly more. Kanter, on the other hand, is a mega-efficient scorer who in 2015-16 posted a PER in the neighborhood of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. He topped 25 minutes just 11 times last year but will see significantly more run as the team searches for the post-Durant offense. And he’s a solid bet to provide some. Kanter’s per-36 numbers last year were eye-popping: 21.7 points, 13.9 rebounds, and 5.3 free throw attempts. He posted 10 20-point games and 25 double-doubles despite starting only one game. He’ll be a fantastic source of DFS production from a mid-level price point – which will surely rise as the season wears on.
Note, however, that Kanter could certainly be traded at some point soon. The Oklahoman speculated as much in September, noting that the team pondered the move when pursuing Al Horford this offseason. If the right forward comes available, Kanter could be on the move.
PG/SG Cameron Payne
Running behind Westbrook and Oladipo, Payne looks likely to settle in around 23-25 minutes per night. He remains raw, but flashed impressive peripheral skills as a rookie. Across 12 games of 20+ minutes, Payne notched 5+ assists five times and 4 steals twice. But as we gauge his occasional GPP value, it’s hard to know what kind of shooter he is, and therefore what we can expect night-to-night in a bench role. Payne shot 39.7% from three range before the All-Star break, then 15.2% over 20 games after.
SF Kyle Singler
Even with starter’s minutes, Singler wouldn’t provide much upside beyond moderate three-pointer production. Last year he saw 20+ minutes of action 16 times but reached double-digit scoring in just three of them. (That happened twice with Durant sidelined; Singler managed just 5 and 7 points.) His peripheral averages – 4.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.6 FTA per 36 minutes over four seasons – aren’t anyone’s idea of a breakout profile.
SG/SF Anthony Morrow
Little more than an end-of-bench shooter, Morrow will likely battle with Kyle Singler and even Ersan Ilyasova for court time, and it’s hard to like his chances much. Last year, Morrow posted his worst all-around season since 2013, with huge dips in minutes and three-pointers. The team picked up his 2016-17 option, but he’s more likely on a given night to see 5 minutes than 20+.
C Joffrey Lauvergne
Lauvergne was acquired from the Nuggets in August, and he’ll slot in as the Thunder’s No. 3 big. There’s no shame in being nudged out of Denver in favor of Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic, and Lauvergne played quite well in limited minutes. He averaged 16.1 points and 10.0 rebounds per 36, posting five double-doubles along the way. He won’t see the same time in Oklahoma City, though, so he’s merely a name to file away in the event of an injury (or trade) to Kanter.
PF Nick Collison
Turning 36 in October, Collison remains a fine glue piece on Thunder’s reserve units, but his minutes have fallen off a cliff and likely won’t recover. He doesn’t contribute anything meaningful in any category; Lauvergne is the far better bet to see second-team minutes.
Key Offseason Departures
SG/SF Kevin Durant – You don’t need me to tell you what Durant’s loss means. He can’t be replaced – we won’t see another like him enter the league for quite some time – so his dominant scoring punch will be spread among Westbrook, Oladipo, and Kanter, who will need to develop into a consistent third scorer when he’s on the court.
PF/C Serge Ibaka – Ibaka was All-NBA Defensive First Team each year from 2012-14, and his loss will indeed be felt. But his defensive game had been slipping – especially in blocks – while his offense never really took the next step. Kanter, Ilyasova and Lauvergne will absorb most of his minutes, with Kanter likely to match or top his offensive numbers on a per-minute basis.
SG Dion Waiters – The all-scoring, no-anything-else spark plug – think of him as a slightly quieter Nick Young – signed on for a bench role with the Heat. He carried a big name but didn’t score often or efficiently enough to provide more than occasional GPP attraction. The Thunder will replace his minutes with their crew of shooting reserves.