Team Outlook
There’s been a tremendous shake-up in Indianapolis, as the team added three past All-Stars in an aggressive attempt to bring the Pacers offense into this era. Coach Frank Vogel has suggested – as has their offseason direction – that the team is seeking to pace up by running more and shooting quicker. They’ve loaded up on scorers and sent all-hustle point guard George Hill packing. Former Hawk Jeff Teague will co-manage the offense with do-it-all star Paul George, in the hopes that more dynamic playmaking and isolation scoring will create more production. With star post men Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson in tow, the Pacers look forward to more diverse, aggressive play.
Of course, even if that pans out for them, it won’t necessarily create a ton of fantasy value. There are now several fairly ball-dominant score-first types in the rotation, so opportunity distribution will likely jump around. Early in the season, DFSers will be treating all non-George Pacers as tournament dice rolls, rather than stable cash-game options. We know there’ll be opportunity and scoring, but we need more clarity as to where it will come from.
Projected Starting Lineup
Point Guard – Jeff Teague
From a fantasy perspective, the concern is that, in Indiana, Teague will often be a PG in title only. Paul George and Monta Ellis tend to dominate the ball in lieu of the PG. Consider that last year, George boasted a robust 30.3% usage rate and Ellis a 21.2%; as a result, regular PG George Hill finished with usage outside the top 150. But Teague is historically more of a scorer and distributor than Hill, so he’ll almost certainly improve on those numbers. It’s unlikely the Pacers will take too much offense away from George, one of the league’s best all-around scorers. But if Hill was capable of 20 performances of 30+ DFS points, and Teague is more adept at creating plays, then we can feel some degree of confidence.
Teague is an often exciting player who’s also often-overpriced by DFS sites, so he’s not a plug-and-play guy. But certain matchups – like those in which George faces a lock-down wing defender – can make him a very strong GPP option.
Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis
Ellis has been a dynamic fantasy asset in recent years – low floor, high ceiling – but he’s likely to level out this year. And with the addition of Teague, that level is likely to be on the lower end of the extremes we’ve seen. Much of Ellis’ DFS appeal of late has come from his tendency to rotate into point guard duties. Sometimes he’s picked up the in-game slack from Hill, who’s not much of a playmaker, and others he’s outright started at the one due to various team injuries. That PG utility has made Ellis a fantastic play at shooting guard on the nights he filled in. But Teague commands far more of an offense than Hill, so Ellis’ PG duties will be scaled back dramatically. The leaves Ellis with the profile of a 31-year-old SG whose scoring has decreased for six straight seasons, playing in an offense of moderate pace, alongside an all-NBA ball dominator and scorer. That’s even more boom-or-bust than he’s been over the last two years.
Small Forward – Paul George
There’s not a lot George can’t do, and little he doesn’t provide to fantasy players. Simply put, George is a cash-game dream: barring serious injury, he’ll always see a minimum of 33-35 minutes, and he dominates his offense to a solid degree. Last year, among all players with to see than 18.0 minutes per game, he finished 12th in total plays and 12th in Nylon Calculus’ Scoring Usage. That made him ball-dominant on the level of Carmelo Anthony, Kyle Lowry, and Kemba Walker. He churned out a career-best 23.1 points a game, knocking down 2.6 threes at an impressive 37.1% clip. He rebounds (6.8 or more in each of his last three full seasons) and provides peripheral numbers (at least 1.8 steals over that span and a still-rising free throw rate). You’ll always have to watch his pricing a bit: George often grows red-hot and earns exorbitant salaries, but he doesn’t carry the kind of upside you’d like from a top-five cost. He’s pretty much at his statistical ceiling. Still, for much of the NBA season, George will be among the safest Tier-2 options day in, day out.
Power Forward – Thaddeus Young
Simply put, Young won’t be as valuable as he was in New Jersey (15.1 points and a career-best 9.0 rebounds last year), and we won’t know just how much usage he’ll carry in his new home. There’s a good chance he winds up more valuable to the Pacers, who will value his speed and pacing, than to fantasy owners. He likely won’t provide much diverse offense, living on fast breaks and jumpers while Myles Turner dominates the paint. And whatever role the Pacers do have earmarked for their PF will be shared with Al Jefferson, a more accomplished (if less reliable) post scorer. There’s certainly a nonzero chance that Young proves an offensive force when he’s on the court, and another season of 13-15 points per game is in play. But unfortunately, Young doesn’t offer the peripheral numbers (steals, blocks, threes) to keep a guy’s value afloat while his offensive role is in flux. Unless he vanquishes Jefferson and proves he can score while sharing the court with Turner, Young will open the season overpriced and overowned.
Center – Myles Turner
Last year, the 19-year-old rookie barged onto the scene with a flurry upon his January insertion into the starting lineup. Turner averaged 13.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks over his first 20 games, then 12.6, 6.1, and 2.4 over his final 19 (including playoffs). It’s encouraging that he saw more minutes during the playoffs (28.1) than the season (22.8) – and that he blocked 3.3 shots per game in the postseason. It’s discouraging, though, that the team brought in Young and Jefferson, two very productive post scoring big men. Turner likely won’t see the boost in minutes or scoring we all expected when last season wrapped up, as he’ll almost always share the court with one of them. But since he’ll spend most of his time as a rim protector, he’s a candidate to lead the league in blocks. That means he’ll probably carry real GPP value once his inevitable early-season overpricing dies down, and a talent of Turner’s profile is always a threat to force his way into more usage.
Key Bench Players
C Al Jefferson
Jefferson has never been a particularly reliable player, and he’s lost a quarter of his games over the last three years to a variety of maladies. He likely won’t start, and will therefore fall off a lot of DFSers’ maps. But on the nights he’s available (and presumably affordable), he’ll always tease with major GPP appeal, especially considering his position. Jefferson remains an upper-level post scorer, and prior to last year, he’d topped 30.0 minutes for 9 consecutive seasons. There’s definitely a role for him in Indiana, most likely on the starter/sixth man borderline And it will come in an offense that should pace up from his time in Charlotte.
PG Aaron Brooks/PG Joe Young
These two will battle for backup PG duties, and either would carry decent plug-and-play value in the event of an injury to Teague. Brooks is a three-point dynamo who can push the pace and score, with a fair assist total thrown in, but he doesn’t project to notable minutes behind Teague. Young ** and showed great as a scorer in Summer League, and he carries a solid shot at winning this fight. But of the two, Brooks probably carries more fill-in value. His experienced, explosive game is more likely to see usage and opportunity on a crowded Pacers court – he’ll have a handful of 18-point, 6-assist nights.
SF C.J. Miles
Miles will run as Paul George’s direct backup, but he’ll see a healthy chunk of minutes for a second-teamer. He slots in at the three when the team goes small (George at power forward), and he brings a GPP-friendly scoring punch to the table. Across 40 non-starts last year, Miles averaged 20 minutes and 10.3 points a game. In matchups that project the Pacers to run more small-ball lineups, Miles is a threat to post surprising, if one-dimensional, value.
SG Rodney Stuckey
Stuckey spent virtually all of 2015-16 playing from the second unit, and his efficiency waned. He’s never been much of an upside guy as a subpar three-point shooter. And he’ll see less usage than usual on this year’s second unit, sharing much of his court time with ball-dominant PG Aaron Brooks. Injuries around him could bring him into occasional fantasy value, but he’s not an attractive GPP target as it stands, with the offense as crowded as it is.
PF Lavoy Allen
Allen wasn’t a fantasy consideration even before the team brought in gobs of competition. With career averages of 5.1 points and 5.0 rebounds, and buried behind significantly more talented PF options, Allen would need numerous injuries to offer any DFS value.
Key Offseason Departures
PG George Hill – The team will sorely miss his defensive stability. The hope is that Teague’s offensive output more than makes up for it, but that’s certainly no given. A big dropoff in defense and cohesiveness could have ripple effects throughout the entire team.
C Ian Mahinmi – He’s a nice piece of depth and a capable short-term starter, but the Pacers opted for more punch from Al Jefferson as the backup center.
PF Jordan Hill – Hill’s loss won’t be felt much. He was barely part of the rotation late in the season, and the team added so much more offensive and rebounding ability in free agency.
PG Ty Lawson – The Pacers clearly preferred to bring in a full-time PG (Teague), rather than go with a rotation featuring Lawson.