Team Outlook
The Bulls are just about as new-look as anybody. They’ve turned over their backcourt to two high-profile additions – a high-pace distributor (Rajon Rondo) and a Hall-of-Fame wing scorer (Dwyane Wade) – in place of Derrick Rose. They shook loose their big frontcourt, with Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah replaced by Robin Lopez and a trio of capable power forwards. It’s hard to know what to make of them, but at least these guys’ histories give us a pretty stable set of expectations. They’ll run more and faster plays than last year when they finished 12th in pace, so we know scoring opportunity will be there. We just need to see the mesh before we leap at high early salaries. That’s especially true in the frontcourt, where we may not have a real view of things until a month or two into the season.
All told, though, there’s a ton of fantasy value on this team. Rondo is always a double-double threat, Wade still scores and facilitates on a high level, and Jimmy Butler has established himself as a well-rounded star whose value could handle a small scoring dip. (A dip he may not even see – Rondo is a phenomenal passer and assist-maker.) And there’s more than enough upside among the bigs to expect frequent DFS contributors.
Projected Starting Lineup
Point Guard – Rajon Rondo
Rondo is a minutes-played monster who will dominate the court, but not the ball, at least to the point he’s used to. Dwayne Wade and Jimmy Butler are usage dominators who will set some plays on their own. Most importantly, though, the move to Chicago is a pace-down one. Rondo’s Kings led the NBA in possessions last year, which boosted his opportunities. He’ll deserve frequent DFS attention, of course, provided he’s indeed seeing the 35+ minutes expected. That would provide all the opportunity he needs to threaten 10 points, 10 assists and 5 rebounds a night (and a helpful smattering of steals). But his upside depends upon him and his efficiency. If the strong shooter (45.4% FG, 36.5% from three) we saw last year returns, he’ll be a frequent GPP stud. But given his history, those ambitions seem lofty.
Shooting Guard – Dwyane Wade
Wade’s minutes have dipped for four straight seasons, and it’s unlikely they rebound in his age-35 season. And in an offense packed with playmakers, he’ll certainly see his usage rate creep back south of 30. It’s also worth noting he’s missed 69 games (21%) over that span to a burdensome load of injuries. DFSers will be chasing down availability information prior to many of his tip-offs, and will likely swallow a few 10-point outings in non-competitive games. Of course, that kind of unpredictability also creates GPP appeal. If the Bulls indeed treat Wade as an offensive focal point when he’s on the court, he’ll deserve it. There are indeed matchups Wade can dominate, even with one of the worst three-point outlooks in basketball. He posted 25+ points 17 times last year, after all. But his nightly floor will be low, far lower than his name value (and likely early-season salaries) will suggest.
Shooting Guard/Small Forward – Jimmy Butler
Butler was a second-tier all-around producer last year, and despite the influx of talent, there’s no reason to expect any less going forward. Wade will almost certainly play complement to Butler, who shouldn’t drop much from his 24.4 usage rate and 15.4 field goal attempts from last year. With his efficiency, ability to get the line, and occasionally awesome three-point shooting, another 20.0-per game season is well within reach. But what sets Butler apart is his consistent compiling of side numbers, elite for the shooting guard spot. His defensive prowess gives him the opportunity to rack up steals and blocks at a solid clip. Even with the additions, it’s probably wise to not overthink Butler’s role and treat him as the nightly top-eight play he’s been of late.
Power Forward – Nikola Mirotic
There’s insanely strong competition for PF minutes among Mirotic, Taj Gibson, and Bobby Portis, and it’s very hard to gauge the distribution right now. Mirotic is all but guaranteed minutes; his three-point shooting is needed, as is the floor spacing he provides. He led the team last year in true shooting percentage and was second in free throw rate. But his minutes may not extend beyond last year’s 25.0 as he fights off two talented comers. He’ll often be worth a speculative look, though, and in injury to one of his competitors would be huge news.
Center – Robin Lopez
The question is whether Lopez will remain a true center in Hoiberg’s offense, or is utilized more on pick-and-rolls and jumpers. In other words: is he replacing Joakim Noah or Pau Gasol? If he’s the new Noah, his minutes will dip and be less predictable; Noah started just two games and averaged 21.9 minutes. Lopez’s best outlook would come from simply succeeding in a C/PF hybrid role and holding off Portis for minutes. Given the uncertainty, the common sense leads us to fade Lopez off the bat. But his non-scoring numbers, specifically rebounds and blocks, showed such promise last year that I see great tournament appeal from Day 1.
Key Bench Players
PF Taj Gibson, PF Bobby Portis
Gibson is coming after Lopez’s minutes; he may even see center minutes this year. But barring frontcourt injuries, he lacks upside as a modest scorer and rebounder. He’s also a candidate to be shipped out of town if Lopez hits expectations and Portis takes a step forward. Last year’s first-round pick, Portis is a talented scorer who shot poorly as a rookie and didn’t contribute enough elsewhere to merit serious minutes down the stretch. He looks like a novelty piece in the frontcourt as it’s currently constructed.
PG/SG Denzel Valentine
Selected 14th overall, Valentine is expected to see immediate minutes backing up Rondo at PG. And according to the team, he’ll see the court a fair amount overall. But his real rookie utility will come if Rondo or Wade lose time to injury. Valentine would then be a strong candidate for cheap minutes, even if his upside next to the two remaining stars would be low. He’s a versatile guard who can pass and shoot, if not the most dynamic athlete. Waves of backcourt injuries hit teams all the time – especially teams with Dwyane Wade – so Valentine could be in line for sneaky DFS value.
C Cristiano Feliciano
Feliciano showed well in a tiny sample size, averaging 12.7 points over the Bulls’ final three games of 2015-16. That included two 16-point performances and a 9-rebound one. There’s definitely potential, as Feliciano also blocks a shot here and there. But he’ll need an injury to Lopez to come into fantasy value.
PG Jerian Grant
Grant comes to town after an occasionally promising rookie year in New York. Over 6 starts at the end of the year, he averaged 14.5 points and 3.7 assists, knocking down 10 of 19 three-pointers (52.6%) in the process. But he’ll have to fend off rookie Valentine for minutes backing up Rondo, and his upside is likely limited to three-pointers in spot starts.
SF Doug McDermott, SF Tony Snell
These two jostle for backup minutes on the wing, providing occasional floor spacing and three-point threats for an offense that’s lacked outside shooting. The loss of Mike Dunleavy creates some additional opportunity, but the Bulls have far more talented options for their minutes. Of the two, McDermott carries the more GPP potential, but it’s usually minimal.
Key Offseason Departures
PF/C Pau Gasol – Gasol did so many things for the Bulls he’ll be hard to replace. It’ll be a litmus test for Hoiberg’s coaching philosophy: will the team go with a more traditional center (Lopez) more often, or play smaller with talented scorers (Mirotic and Portis)?
C Joakim Noah – Noah was a rotational weapon for Hoiberg, and he provided great rebounding and shot-blocking numbers when deployed. Replacement Lopez’s usage could well be facing the same fate.
PG Derrick Rose – This needed to happen; Rose is no longer the centerpiece scorer he once looked like. Hoiberg clearly values more traditional PG play, and new starter Rondo will usually be a facilitator to the more capable scoring threats.