GPP Construction- Attacking Opening Night in the NBA
Three game slates are always difficult to separate yourself from the field. If you’re playing either of the giant $4 slates on DraftKings or FanDuel, odds are you’re likely going to have the same lineup as someone else. If you want to differentiate yourself, there are few things that you can do to do this. First, ask yourself what your main objective of the tournament is if it is just to do the best you can, don’t worry about this strategy if you’re ok with sharing the top prize if you win it (it’s not a bad problem to have). If you want to differentiate yourself from the competition here are some strategies to do so on these giant tournaments.
FanDuel- Leave money on the table, FanDuel has less flexibility than DraftKings so if you spend all of your salary cap then you likely are going to have the same roster as a large number of other competitors as there are only so many iterations of ways to spend your salary that inherently you are more likely to have the same roster as another competitor if you use all or most of your cap space.
DraftKings- Consider going with two centers, or two shooting guards. The consensus here is that the majority of the field is likely to go with at least two point guards, possibly three, and by going with a different combination of player in your slot or in your G/F spot this can help differentiate your team from the rest of the crowd.
At the end of the day, remember that going all contrarian is not necessarily the right thing, there is a reason that these players are contrarian and not chalk, and it is because there is more risk involved with them. Incorporating one or two of these players into your lineup will help you differentiate yourself from the crowd and therefore if the chalk play that you did not start underperforms you have a potential opportunity to have a big day with your contrarian pick.
Point Guard-
Chalk- Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, George Hill
Contrarian- Kyrie Irving
Kyrie Irving whenever he is under-owned is the perfect GPP play. There have been rumblings from the Cavs that after the NBA finals they want Irving to take on a larger role on this team and show more consistency from what he did in the NBA Finals where he averaged 27.1 points per game. Kyrie has as much upside as anyone on this slate, and while historically he hasn’t had a great matchup against Derrick Rose, with Rose being pre-occupied with legal issues he may not be 100% ready to go which Irving could take advantage of.
Shooting Guard
Chalk- C.J. McCollum, J.R. Smith, Klay Thompson
Contrarian- Rodney Hood
Rodney Hood is a player who has shown incredible upside in the past but is very point dependent as he traditionally does not do much in the way of rebounds or assists. However, he matches up very well against Portland and had 18+ points in each of his three games last year against them. With Gordon Hayward out, Hood’s usage rate increases to 25.3 compared to 20.9 when Hayward is in the game. Hood is a player who when he gets in a rhythm and when he gets hot he can put up 30 points as we saw last season. This makes for a great GPP play, as he is not necessarily consistent, but with Hayward out of this contest, someone is going to have to score in this game.
Small Forward-
Chalk- LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Anderson
Contrarian- Carmelo Anthony, Evan Turner
Evan Turner is a guy who is really sneaky in this game, especially if he does not start this game, as a lot of people will gravitate away from a player who is coming off the bench. Do not be fooled here, Evan Turner will still see around 25 minutes regardless of whether he starts or not. Turner is not a great cash play as he is still being integrated into his new team, but we have seen what he is able to do in when he gets playing time as he can easily put up a 17 point, 8 rebound, and 4 assist game, which would be an outstanding value.
Carmelo Anthony is a player who almost no one seemingly is on due to Lebron, Kawhi and even Durant taking most of the ownership. Do not be fooled, Anthony has a history of big games against the Cavs as he averaged 41.6 FanDuel points per game against them last season. An interesting stack would be Lebron and Carmelo and hope that the two friends go at it like we saw last year on March 26th where Carmelo had 28 points 9 rebounds and LeBron had 27 points 11 rebounds and 11 assists.
Power Forward-
Chalk- Kristaps Porzingis (FanDuel), LeBron James (DraftKings), Kevin Durant (DraftKings)
Contrarian- Derrick Favors, Lamarcus Aldridge
Derrick Favors if he was healthy would be in a great spot, as Portland doesn’t have the size to matchup with Favors. The issue is that he isn’t 100% healthy and is questionable for this game. With no late swap on either DraftKings or FanDuel, a lot of people are going to be off of Favors if we do not hear a definitive that he is playing or not playing in this game. This will then lower his ownership and with Favors double-double upside he could easily reach value in this slate.
Lamarcus Aldridge always seems to go under-owned in tournaments, as he is not a flashy player, is not consistent, and plays for a boring fundamental based team that plays at a slow pace. His track record last year against Golden State was very hit or miss. In the four games that he played against Golden State, his home-road splits were severe. This is going to drive people off of him as well and for cash games, there is no reason to start him based on these home/road splits against Golden State. However, if you look at his home/road splits for the entire year, they are much closer to even indicating that there is very little difference for Aldridge if he plays at home or on the road. Therefore, if he is under-owned and puts up one of these big games that we have seen him put up in the past, he could be a key piece to driving a successful GPP winning lineup.
|
|
Points |
Rebounds |
Assists |
Blocks |
Steals |
|
Home |
25.0 |
11.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
Away |
8.0 |
3.0 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Center-
Chalk- Rudy Gobert, Trey Lyles
Contrarian- Tristan Thompson
Even with Timofey Mozgov in Cleveland last season, Thompson was able to put up 23 double doubles in the 2015-2016 season. All reports out of New York are that Joakim Noah is really struggling with his defense and that he is not ready for this season to begin. This could turn into a big mismatch with Thompson who is one of the most athletic Centers in the NBA. At Thompson’s price, he could easily get the double-double which is what he averaged against in the NBA Finals last season. If Noah is truly injured, this would mean high upside for Thompson as Porzingis will be forced to guard Kevin Love on the perimeter opening up rebounds for Thompson down low.