NBA Deep Dive October 30th

Photo: USA Today Sports

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat

Vegas Line: Spurs -6.5 
Total- 195

San Antonio Spurs

Projected Lineup
PG- Tony Parker ($4,500 FD, $4,000 DK)
SG- Kyle Anderson ($3,500 FD, $3,800 DK)
SF- Kawhi Leonard ($8,700 FD, $9,000 DK)
PF- LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,600 FD, $7,100 DK)
C- Pau Gasol ($6,800 FD, $6,100 DK)

The Spurs are coming off back to back games after they rested Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker last night. This game is going to be a defensive struggle against two teams who play at a slow pace and are defensive minded. Both teams in this game are top 10 in defending every position, which makes it tough to start any of the Spurs in cash games. This game has the lowest implied total of the day, so there are better options than taking a team coming off a back to back and in a defensive struggle.

Top Plays-
None

Secondary Play-
LaMarcus Aldridge (GPP)

Miami Heat

Projected Lineup
PG- Goran Dragic ($6,600 FD, $6,300 DK)
SG- Dion Waiters ($4,600 FD, $4,000 DK)
SF- Justise Winslow ($4,900 FD, $5,000 DK)
PF- Luke Babbit ($3,500 FD, $3,000 DK)
C- Hassan Whiteside ($8,300 FD, $8,000 DK)

This is a Miami Heat team that is in a tough matchup against the Spurs team which we typically want to avoid playing anyone against. The Spurs are a very tough team to face and allowed the fewest points in the NBA last season, this is a situation that is best to avoid and spend up at other games.

Top Plays-
None

Secondary Options-
Hassan Whiteside (questionable), Goran Dragic

Warriors at Suns

Vegas Line: GSW -11
Total- 225

Golden State Warriors

Projected Lineup
PG- Steph Curry ($8,800 FD, $8,900 DK)
SG- Klay Thompson ($6,300 FD, $6,500 DK)
SF- Kevin Durant ($9,700 FD, $9,900 DK)
PF- Draymond Green ($8,300 FD, $7,500 DK)
C- Zaza Pachulia ($4,500 FD, $3,900 DK)

We recommended starting no one in the Heat Spurs game, and we are going to recommend the exact opposite in this one. All four of the Warriors big four are in play here as this projects to be a shootout of a game with by far the highest total on the board. The one play here that is especially intriguing is Klay Thompson who is coming off a 28 point 4 rebound 2 assist game and his price has not increased as it is still very cheap. Draymond Green is also a very good play in this one on DraftKings as he has triple-double upside anytime he steps on the court which is a big deal for DraftKings. Curry is in a very favorable matchup as the Suns allowed the second most fantasy points to point guards last season.

Top Plays-
Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green

Secondary Plays-
Andre Iguodola

Phoenix Suns

Projected Lineup
PG- Eric Bledsoe ($7,400 FD, $7,000 DK)
SG- Devin Booker ($6,100 FD, $6.200 DK)
SF- T.J. Warren ($5,000 FD, $5,000 DK)
PF- Jared Dudley ($3,800 FD, $3,600 DK)
C- Tyson Chandler ($4,200 FD, $4,300 DK)

This game is going to be a back and forth game between two high-paced offenses in what should turn out to be a shootout of a game. The Warriors really struggle against guards as Steph Curry is not a poor defender. This puts Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, and Brandon Knight in play, as the Warriors will likely rotate who Klay Thompson defends and who Curry defends. Based on price, Booker and Knight are the safer cash game plays as we are going to want to spend up for some of the studs that are out there and can use the savings.

Top Plays- Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker

Secondary Plays- Marquese Chriss, T.J. Warren

Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons

Vegas Line:  DET -7.5
Total- 194.5

Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Lineup
PG- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,500 FD, $8,800 DK)
SG- Matthew Dellavadova ($4,400 FD, $3,900 DK)
SF- Jabari Parker ($6,000 FD, $6,200 DK)
PF- Mirza Teletovic ($3,900 FD, $4,000 DK)
C- Miles Plumlee ($3,700 FD, $3,000 DK)

This slate is a mixture of projected high scoring games and low scoring defensive games. This Bucks team is going up against a very good defensive team in the Detroit Pistons. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been terrific all season as he takes over as the superstar of this team. However, his price is increasing, and with how slow this game is, it is best to look elsewhere as when you are spending up for the top end players you want to make sure that they are not in a slow paced game. This is not a game that you want to target.

Top Plays- None

Secondary Plays- None

Detroit Pistons

Projected Lineup
PG- Ish Smith ($6,200 FD, $5,200 DK)
SG- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,800 FD, $4,200 DK)
SF- Marcus Morris ($5,700 FD, $5,100 DK)
PF- Tobias Harris ($6,200 FD, $5,900 DK)
C- Andre Drummond ($7,900 FD, $7,900 DK)

The Pistons are not seeing the decrease in pace in this one as they’re right in line with what they normally are at. They are projected to score 101 points in this one, so they have to be in consideration. The Bucks have really struggled against the small forward, power forward positions as they are bottom five against both in terms of fantasy points allowed. This puts both Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris in play, especially Harris who has been averaging 20 points per game so far this season.

Top Plays- Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris
Secondary Play- Andre Drummond

Lakers at Thunder

Vegas Line:  OKC -7.5
Total- 214

Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Lineup
PG- D’Angelo Russell ($6,300 FD, $6,700 DK)
SG- Nick Young ($3,500 FD, $3,300 DK)
SF- Luol Deng ($5,100 FD, $4,800 DK)
PF- Julius Randle ($6,200 FD, $6,100 DK)
C- Timofey Mozgov ($4,100 FD, $4,400 DK)

The Lakers salaries continue to stay flat and a big part of this is that they played the Jazz last time out. This is going to kill any fantasy value that a team may have as the Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Lakers see a big pace increase here as they take on an Oklahoma City team that loves to get up and down the court quickly. The Thunder have struggled against the PG and SG positions as Westbrook at times is more focused on his offense and getting rebounds than playing tight defense on defenders. This puts both Nick Young and D’Angelo Russell in play in this one as they should thrive in the up and down pace between the two teams.

Top Plays: D’Angelo Russell

Secondary Plays: Nick Young, Jordan Clarkson

Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Lineup
PG- Russell Westbrook ($13,000 FD, $12,200 DK)
SG- Victor Oladipo ($7,000 FD, $6,500 DK)
SF- Andre Roberson ($4,200 FD, $3,800 DK)
PF- Domantas Sabonis ($3,900 FD, $3,600 DK)
C- Steven Adams ($4,700 FD, $5,800 DK)

This is a terrific matchup for the Thunder, as the Lakers are the worst team against PG, SG, 4^th worst against SF, 3^rd worst against C. The problem is that Russell Westbrook’s price has gotten to a point that makes it extremely difficult to fit him into your roster. We have him projected at 57.5 points which is by far the highest on the board. If you can fit him in, he has the upside of 70+ in this game especially if it stays close in the fourth quarter as regardless of who guards him it won’t matter. Steven Adams is one of the top plays of the day as he saw 40 minutes last time out which burned a lot of Kanter owners. If Adams can see those minutes again he becomes the top player of the day. There is a little risk as his minutes have been volatile this year with Kanter seeing playing time.

Top Plays: Steven Adams, Victor Oladipo, Russell Westbrook
Secondary Options: Enes Kanter

Wizards at Grizzlies

Vegas Line:  Wash -1
Total- 202.5

Washington Wizards

Projected Lineup
PG- John Wall ($9,300 FD, $8,200 DK)
SG- Bradley Beal ($6,000 FD, $5,600 DK)
SF- Otto Porter ($4,900 FD, $4,600 DK)
PF- Markieff Morris ($5,600 FD, $5,600 DK)
C- Marcin Gortat ($6,300 FD, $5,500 DK)

Memphis historically has been very good defensively and a team that you want to avoid, but as the team has changed throughout the past few years they have become closer to an average defense. Andrew Nicholson continues to show high production when he gets his minutes, and Ian Mahinmi is out again which should make Nicholson a decent punt play and a way to save salary. John Wall is always in play, as even though he is in a tough matchup against Mike Conley, Wall is a player who has a high usage rate when he is on the floor.

Top Plays- None

Secondary Plays- John Wall, Andrew Nicholson

Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Lineup
PG- Mike Conley ($6,800 FD, $6,600 DK)
SG- Andrew Harrison ($3,500 FD, $3,000 DK)
SF- James Ennis ($4,100 FD, $4,300 DK)
PF- JaMychal Green ($5,000 FD, $4,700 DK)
C- Marc Gasol ($7,200 FD, $5,600 DK)

If there is one area that you can attack the Wizards it is through your SF and PF’s as Otto Porter and Markieff Morris struggle on the defensive side of the ball. This presents a great opportunity for JaMychal Green who at his price is one of those guys that the pricing algorithms has not adjusted to his production. He is a double-double threat in this game and he only needs 20 points or so to pay off his salary. Green has seen 29 and 30 minutes which consistency in minutes for players is a big thing and as long as he stays out of foul trouble should exceed his salary.

Top Plays- JaMychal Green
Secondary Plays- James Ennis, Mike Conley

Mavericks at Rockets

Vegas Line:  Hou -6
Total- 216.5

Dallas Mavericks

Projected Lineup
PG- Deron Williams ($6,200 FD, $5,700 DK)
SG- Wesley Matthews ($5,000 FD, $4,900 DK)
SF- Harrison Barnes ($5,400 FD, $6,100 DK)
PF- Dirk Nowitzki ($7,100 FD, $6,000 DK)
C- Andrew Bogut ($4,200 FD, $4,300 DK)

These teams just met last time out although Dirk Nowitzki missed the game with an illness. Dirk did return to practice yesterday, and is a great option if he plays this week as the Rockets have been especially susceptible with the Small Forward and Power Forward positions. We saw Harrison Barnes have a monster game last time out against Trevor Ariza who just could not guard Barnes. Barnes shot the ball 23 times and is one of the best plays of the day if Dirk is out, and is still under consideration even if Dirk does play.

Top Plays- Harrison Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki

Secondary Options/GPP plays- Andrew Bogut, Wesley Matthews

Houston Rockets

Projected Lineup
PG- James Harden ($11,200 FD, $11,300 DK)
SG- Eric Gordon ($5,400 FD, $5,400 DK)
SF- Trevor Ariza ($5,500 FD, $5,600 DK)
PF- Ryan Anderson ($5,900 FD, $5,900 DK)
C- Clint Capela ($4,600 FD, $5,700 DK)

James Harden is in consideration every time he is on the court as his usage rate is one of the highest in the NBA. The Mavericks across the board are average against all positions and one does not stand out either positively or negatively. Harden should do better than his last time out, although with Westbrook in an elite matchup you can likely only get one in your lineup and Westbrook seems to be the clear choice in this one. Trevor Ariza had 27 points last time against the Mavericks team and although Barnes is a good defender it seemed last time out that the two players were more focused on their offense than their defense.

Top Plays- James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Clint Capela

Secondary Options- None