NBA Deep Dive October 28th

Photo: USA Today Sports

Cavaliers at Raptors

Vegas Line: Cavs -3
Total- 206

Cleveland Cavaliers

Projected Lineup
PG- Kyrie Irving ($7,500 FD, $7,700 DK)
SG- J.R Smith ($4,400 FD, $4,100 DK)
SF- LeBron James ($9,900 FD, $9,400 DK)
PF- Kevin Love ($7,100 FD, $7,100 DK)
C- Tristan Thompson ($4,400 FD, $4,700 DK)

LeBron James

All told, I prefer James in GPP contests to cash, as his fantasy successes will be volatile and relatively hard to predict. The team will certainly monitor his minutes, and the Cavs are capable of winning big without monstrous James nights. But while there are better ways to spend this kind of money in cash games, he can obviously tilt your tournament with a signature line, packed with points, rebounds, assists, and peripheral numbers.

Kyrie Irving

It’s looking like slow paces won’t be of much concern for Irving, who put up 22 shots in just 30 minutes on Opening Night. As a result, he actually looks like the Cavs’ best overall cash play. He looks prepared to lead the team in scoring opportunity even when James is playing actively. Irving will never be much of an assists guy (4.7 per game last year), as he’s an isolation dominator and getting better at it by the day. But his strong volume brings his floor to a point that cash players can feel comfortable.

Richard Jefferson

Neither DraftKings (minimum salary) nor FanDuel ($100 above the minimum) accounted for Jefferson’s high opening Night usage. He saw 26 minutes off the bench – more than 3 Cleveland starters – and produced a 13-point, 4-rebound line with 2 steals for good measure. Obviously, the eruption was based on the flow of a 29-point Cleveland win, and Toronto presents less chance of a blowout than did the Knicks. But GPPers would do well to roll a tiny set of dice on a huge Cavs win and more Jefferson gold. If he is indeed the team’s top bench option, he’s worth far more than his meager salary

Toronto Raptors

Projected Lineup
PG- Kyle Lowry ($7,800 FD, $7,600 DK)
SG- DeMar Derozan ($7,900 FD, $7,200 DK)
SF- DeMarre Carroll $4,500 FD, $4,600 DK)
PF- Pascal Siakam ($3,900 FD, $3,400 DK)
C- Jonas Valanciunas ($6,000 FD, $6,700 DK)

DeMar DeRozan

Last year, DeRozan finished 11^th league-wide in usage rate. And if Opening Night was any indication, that mark isn’t dropping anytime soon. DeRozan has become a more efficient scorer than Kyle Lowry and should dominate scoring opportunity more often than not. He won’t repeat his 63% field goal, 40-point eruption against Cleveland’s defense, but he’s still a strong play in any format. Most of his appeal lies on DraftKings, though, where he comes at a marked discount from Lowry.

Jonas Valanciunas

He sure had an active Opening Night, playing 35 minutes and serving as a reminder for us to target bigs that match up against high-usage bigs. When facing a guy like Andre Drummond, centers like Valanciunas see elevated opportunity for rebounds and blocks. On Wednesday, Valanciunas frustrated Andre Drummond to the point of shooting 14 free throws en route to a mammoth 32-point, 11-rebound performance. He won’t be used quite as much against the Cavs, but he set a pretty high bar on Opening Night and appears well worth his midlevel FanDuel salary.

DeMarre Carroll

That said, in GPPs I prefer stepping down a notch in salary to Carroll. He’s healthy (at the moment) and notched 29 minutes Wednesday, so assuming he’s not rested or limited today, there’s strong upside in play. He tends to chime in across the board with a smattering of points, rebounds, and steals, and is squarely in line to bring GPP value if the Raptors stay competitive.

Pacers at Nets

Vegas Line: IND -6.5
Total- 217

Indiana Pacers

Projected Lineup
PG- Jeff Teague ($6,500 FD, $6,200 DK)
SG- Monta Ellis ($6,100 FD, $5,300 DK)
SF- Paul George ($9,500 FD, $8,400 DK)
PF- Thaddeus Young ($6,000 FD, $5,700 DK)
C- Myles Turner ($6,900 FD, $7,100 DK)

Myles Turner

Well, that didn’t take long. Turner’s absurd Opening Night performance (30 points, 16 rebounds, 4 blocks, 2 steals) sky rocketed his salaries to the point that he’ll cost you about what Brook Lopez will. And he might actually be the safer cash play. Turner saw 37 minutes in the overtime battle, and while that could dip a bit as Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson come along, he’s certainly earned the lion’s share of opportunity for the time being. There are safer center options on the board, but Turner is a dominant talent in several facets and boasts similar upside to even his strongest peers.

Jeff Teague

On Opening Night, the Pacers turned over more offensive control to Teague than I’d expected. He took 13 free throws and registered more field goal attempts and more assists than either Paul George or Monta Ellis. The team talked up its goal for a higher pace all offseason, and their 107.5 mark with Teague on the floor suggests they’ll be asking him to spearhead an aggressive, voluminous attack quite often. Tonight, he comes cheaper than a few more volatile point guard options and makes for a fine play in any format.

Al Jefferson

There’s a decent chance his miniscule Opening Night usage (just 11 minutes) was matchup-based and fluky. There will be nights when his superb post-up game is more valuable to the Pacers than what Thaddeus Young brings. Jefferson won’t see consistently strong minutes anytime soon, but he won’t need them at his tiny salaries. A vintage Jefferson performance across just 15-20 minutes can certainly bring home GPP value.

Brooklyn Nets

Projected Lineup
PG- Jeremy Lin ($6,200 FD, $6,000 DK)
SG- Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,200 FD, $4,200 DK)
SF- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($3,900 FD, $4,200 DK)
PF- Trevor Booker ($4,900 FD, $4,300 DK)
C- Brook Lopez ($7,900 FD, $7,000 DK)

Jeremy Lin

It’s always wise to chase high-usage point guards in pace-up matchups, and the new-look aggressive Pacers should have a strong effect on Lin’s opportunity. He’s the unquestioned starter in Brooklyn, leading the team in minutes Wednesday night, and he’ll often be the engine driving the Nets offense. That isn’t the prettiest outlook, of course, but I like his chances at a floor of 15 shots from the field and a handful of assists. If the Nets stay in the game, he could offer real GPP appeal.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

He was a punt-play dud on Opening Night, but better days are coming for Hollis-Jefferson. The Nets spent much of the second half in blowout-loss mode, limiting him to just 24 minutes and 3 shots from the field. That underperformance will shake off most of his ownership, leaving him with strong tournament appeal as a low-owned shot at major value. He probably only needs a line around 10 points and 7 rebounds to reach value.

Magic at Pistons

Vegas Line:  DET -3
Total- 195

Orlando Magic

Projected Lineup
PG- Elfrid Payton ($5,900 FD, $5,700 DK)
SG- Evan Fournier ($5,900 FD, $6,200 DK)
SF- Aaron Gordon ($5,600 FD, $6,100 DK)
PF- Serge Ibaka ($5,500 FD, $5,900 DK)
C- Nikola Vucevic ($7,800 FD, $6,500 DK)

Nikola Vucevic / Bismack Biyombo

Vucevic looked fantastic Wednesday night, though he could lose some time to Biyombo going forward. Still, both centers should see solid minutes tonight against Andre Drummond. Centers typically get a boost against the high-usage Drummond – witness Myles Turner’s utter explosion from the other night. That makes Biyombo a decent deep-GPP target; he could log strong minutes and a solid workload tonight. That could provide the rebounds and blocks needed to drag Biyombo to value.

Aaron Gordon

Gordon’s big Opening Night was impressive for what it was, but also as a sign of what could be to come. He’s installed the starting small forward and seems destined for 33-35 minutes a night, at a minimum. And he filled the stat sheet, flirting with a double-double and hitting two surprise threes. The versatile Gordon is priced too cheaply for his ceiling on FanDuel, where he makes for a solid GPP core piece.

Detroit Pistons

Projected Lineup
PG- Ish Smith ($6,200 FD, $4,900 DK)
SG- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,000 FD, $4,400 DK)
SF- Tobias Harris ($6,300 FD, $5,600 DK)
PF- Marcus Morris ($5,700 FD, $5,000 DK)
C- Andre Drummond ($7,900 FD, $7,900 DK)

Andre Drummond

The DFS sites were thrown by Drummond’s Game 1 dud, but you shouldn’t be. He played just 24 minutes (foul trouble) and matched the lowest rebound total (6) of his last 40 games. Rest assured: he’s a double-double machine and the odds-on favorite for another rebounding title, and it’s hard to imagine him swooning again tonight. Take advantage of his depressed salary – it won’t be this low again.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

He’s a minutes beast, often topping the 40 mark or at least approaching it. (He played a team-high 39 Wednesday night.) He’s not the most efficient option, but his nightmarish opener should only pull ownership away. The Magic will likely struggle all year to defend opposing wings, so Caldwell-Pope carries a decent outlook into tonight. He produced well down the stretch last season, and a handful of threes could push him to universal GPP value.

Hornets At Heat

Vegas Line:  Char -1
Total- 198

Charlotte Hornets

Projected Lineup
PG- Kemba Walker ($8,000 FD, $7,400 DK)
SG- Nicolas Batum ($6,200 FD, $6,400 DK)
SF- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($5,700 FD, $5,400 DK)
PF- Marvin Williams ($5,100 FD, $4,800 DK)
C- Roy Hibbert ($3,900 FD, $3,600 DK)

Cody Zeller

If you’re taking a flier on a Hornet against the Heat’s lockdown defense, slow-paced defense, Zeller is probably the most attractive option. He’s not entirely healthy yet, and he took a clear backseat to Roy Hibbert in the opener. But Zeller was fantastic in his 14 minutes – 15 points and 2 blocks – and brings low-ownership appeal to tournament play. His usage should only increase, as his knee is getting stronger and he’s a superior starting option to Roy Hibbert.

Miami Heat

Projected Lineup
PG- Goran Dragic ($6,900 FD, $6,600 DK)
SG- Dion Waiters ($4,500 FD, $4,100 DK)
SF- Justise Winslow ($4,900 FD, $5,100 DK)
PF- Luke Babbit ($3,500 FD, $3,100 DK)
C- Hassan Whiteside ($8,700 FD, $8,300 DK)

Hassan Whiteside

He’s often the offensive engine on the new-look Heat, so he now brings a floor to match his ever-high ceiling. Whiteside was truly awesome against the Magic, double-doubling easily and chiming in four blocks. I don’t love his Friday price tag, and there are similar outlooks available for much cheaper. But the value up and down the center ranks means Whiteside’s massive salary will almost certainly be under-owned. He can tilt a GPP majorly in your favor with a vintage game, and it would probably only matter for about 8-10% of your tournament.

Suns at Thunder

Vegas Line:  OKC -10
Total- 209

Phoenix Suns

Projected Lineup
PG- Eric Bledsoe ($7,500 FD, $7,400 DK)
SG- Devin Booker ($6,100 FD, $6,400 DK)
SF- TJ Warren ($4,600 FD, $4,400 DK)
PF- Jared Dudley ($3,800 FD, $3,700 DK)
C- Tyson Chandler ($4,200 FD, $4,500 DK)

Devin Booker

He’ll likely draw a lot of chalk again, and he really does bring solid value. He’s explosive and plenty efficient to rely upon in most cash contests. That’s especially true tonight in a pace-up game against the Thunder. The Suns guards will run and run, so Booker should again see plenty of opportunity to score. He’s a bit one-dimensional but can meet this modest value marker just on a hot shooting night. 

Brandon Knight

He’s not starting, so unlike last year’s early going, the chalk will be against him for a while. That makes for fertile GPP ground, of course, and Knight could go off for 6x value at any moment. He didn’t produce in the opener, but saw 26 minutes of play and is always a threat to create gobs of offense while he’s on the court. A high-paced matchup is just what he needs to flat-out erupt.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Lineup
PG- Russell Westbrook ($12,000 FD, $11,800 DK)
SG- Victor Oladipo ($7,100 FD, $6,600 DK)
SF- Andre Roberson ($3,900 FD, $3,500 DK)
PF- Domantas Sabonis ($4,000 FD, $3,600 DK)
C- Steven Adams ($4,800 FD, $5,800 DK)

Russell Westbrook

He flirted with a triple-double in his first game sans-Kevin Durant. That’ll be pretty much the norm going forward; Westbrook always carries a DFS-winning outlook and is nearly impossible to fade. You certainly can’t do it when he’s facing an electrifying matchup with the high-paced, low-defense Suns. Don’t overthink it today.

Enes Kanter

A bench player in designation only, Kanter saw 24 minutes in the opener and that looks like his usage floor. He brings much more offense to the table than Steven Adams and will play in plenty of base sets with Westbrook. On most nights – especially ones like tonight – he’ll be in line for major scoring, considering how efficient he is with his reserve minutes. Unfortunately, the secret is mostly out throughout DFS, and Kanter will be very highly owned. That makes him a near-necessity in cash, but not a ton of GPP help.

Victor Oladipo

Oladipo’s price tag fell a bit after a shaky Thunder debut, but it won’t be this low for long. The two-way playmaker is extremely affordable tonight – way too affordable for a guy who both runs the point at times and creates tons of splash plays. He’s a strong investment in any format tonight, but could really turn a GPP your way in particular.

Rockets at Mavericks

Vegas Line:  Pick
Total- 219

Houston Rockets

Projected Lineup
PG- James Harden ($11,400 FD, $11,300 DK)
SG- Eric Gordon ($5,600 FD, $6,100 DK)
SF- Trevor Ariza ($5,400 FD, $5,500 DK)
PF- Ryan Anderson ($6,400 FD, $6,300 DK)
C- Clint Capela ($4,700 FD, $5,800 DK)

James Harden

Like Russell Westbrook, and perhaps even more so, Harden is really difficult to fade in any contest. NBA statisticians barely have the technology to calculate his usage and essentiality in Houston. His opener was wild, of course, and we can’t just expect 34 points and 17 assists going forward. Not all of his opponents will be the Lakers. But his sky-high ceiling is now paired with an absurdly solid floor. He’ll rarely fall below 50 DFS points, and your slates will often be determined almost entirely by how you approached him that night. Dallas’ ho-hum defense shouldn’t present an obstacle, and Harden probably deserves more attention than Westbrook. And at a solid discount, no less.

Clint Capela

Capela is not Myles Turner, but he can still take advantage of a suspect Mavericks frontcourt. And he himself was very efficient in his opener, shooting 8 of 11 from the field and grabbing 9 rebounds. He’ll draw a lot of chalk and likely value tonight, needing only to reach the 25-30 fantasy point range to cash in for owners, so target him for strong salary relief.

Dallas Mavericks

Projected Lineup
PG- Deron Williams ($6,500 FD, $5,700 DK)
SG- Wesley Matthews ($5,300 FD, $4,800 DK)
SF- Harrison Barnes ($5,100 FD, $5,900 DK)
PF- Dirk Nowitzki ($7,200 FD, $6,000 DK)
C- Andrew Bogut ($4,200 FD, $4,500 DK)

Deron Williams

The Rockets have long struggled to defend opposing backcourts without Patrick Beverly on the court. Harden is dazzling, but a defender he’s not, and Williams should see real success tonight. He was very busy in the Mavericks’ opener, shooting 18 field goals and 10 free throws while dishing out 7 assists across 40 minutes. With tonight’s expected pace-up and ghostlike defense on the other side, Williams looks in play to repeat that performance. There are better cash options available, but a GPP breakout can’t be ruled out.

Wesley Matthews

DFSers will likely avoid Matthews after his wildly inefficient opener (3 of 16 from the field, 2 of 10 from three). But that usage suggests there’s strong GPP appeal in an extremely inviting matchup. Harrison Barnes will likely see plenty of Trevor Ariza’s occasionally great defense, so Matthews could be the Mavericks’ top scoring option off the wing. Taking 16 shots in a home date with the Rockets is often a recipe for unexpected, low-owned gold.

Warriors At Pelicans

Vegas Line:  GSW -11
Total- 222

Golden State Warriors

Projected Lineup
PG- Steph Curry ($9,300 FD, $9,300 DK)
SG- Klay Thompson ($6,200 FD, $6,500 DK)
SF- Kevin Durant ($9,500 FD, $9,600 DK)
PF- Draymond Green ($8,400 FD, $7,500 DK)
C- Zaza Pachulia ($4,500 FD, $3,800 DK)

Kevin Durant

Well, that wasn’t so hard. Durant may take some time to gel on his new super team, but those growing pains will typically show up in the Warriors’ on-court performance, not the stat sheet. Durant managed a double-double and lead the team in scoring without turning the ball over, and his peripheral numbers (four assists, two steals, two blocks) were awesome. He looks capable of even exceeding those marks on given nights, too. When you consider that what we just saw (100 points in a 29-point loss) was like Golden State’s absolute floor, it makes sense to expect more Durant dominance. He scores from anywhere and everywhere, he looks set to threaten the team lead in rebounds on most nights, and he chips in plenty of peripheral stats. If you want to wring your hands over the Warriors and their unpredictable offensive production, look somewhere else. Durant will be a featured scorer every night – and the featured scorer in most. Matching up with the no-defense Pelicans is a dream come true.

Stephen Curry

There’s moderate concern over what Durant’s presence will do for Curry’s value. He’ll remain high-usage and high-efficiency, I’m sure, but he won’t handle the ball or set the offense quite as often. As a result, his assists could actually dip noticeably with so much talent on board, making him a little more one-dimensional and less reliable in cash games. That’s why I’m generally off of Curry in cash games until his salary drops by a hair or two. Of course, all of that analysis could go out the window on any given night. The greatest shooter ever and a top-three overall player, Curry is always in position to dominate a game in one of several different ways. A date with the Pelicans and Tim Frazier makes him an upper-crust tournament play tonight.

Draymond Green

Many are worried about Green’s statistical fit with Durant on board; I’m not. He played a full complement of minutes in the opener and was afforded 14 shots from the field – and that came in a major pace-down game against the Spurs. Besides, we’ve all seen how Green’s efficiency buoys his fantasy outlook. With his defensive prowess and playmaking ability, he can easily reach 50 DFS points in a game with less offensive usage than that. As a result, he carries a better floor than many are giving him credit for, and I’m fine with rolling him out in GPPs while his salary is manageable. It will spike at points throughout the season, and this one could soon be a distant memory.

New Orleans Pelicans

Projected Lineup
PG- Tim Frazier ($5,300 FD, $5,400 DK)
SG- E’Twaun Moore ($4,500 FD, $4,300 DK)
SF- Solomon Hill ($4,000 FD, $3,600 DK)
PF- Anthony Davis ($11,000 FD, $10,900 DK)
C- Omer Asik ($3,500 FD, $3,100 DK)

Anthony Davis

It’s not that we weren’t able to see Davis’ absurd Opening Night (95.7 FanDuel points, 100.0 DraftKings) coming. He’s a generational talent and the unquestioned engine that drives the fast-paced Pelicans offense. The reason many of us stayed off of him was the risk factor. Davis is prone to burning DFSers with early injury exits and last-minute “out” declarations. It makes sense, as the team doesn’t want to risk or rush its superstar through injuries in early-season games. But it’s enough to back us off just a bit. That said, “projecting” injuries is a silly endeavor, and Davis can’t really be faded in tournaments at this point. He’s too high-upside, and his ownership across all formats will be exceptionally high tonight. Don’t expect another 34 shots or 7 steals, but prioritize him in your portfolio – your opponents certainly will.

Tim Frazier

Frazier was productive in his first Pelicans start, with 15 points, 11 assists, and 5 rebounds as the team’s clear No. 2 option. That usage and production won’t happen every night, but he’ll certainly play a prominent role while the team’s backcourt is shorthanded. The DFS sites still haven’t valued him quite right for tonight’s likely shootout, so he stands as an elite value play to fill out your roster.

Lakers at Jazz

Vegas Line: Utah -10
Total- 201

Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Lineup
PG- D’Angelo Russell ($6,400 FD, $6,900 DK)
SG- Nick Young ($3,500 FD, $3,300 DK)
SF- Luol Deng ($5,000 FD, $4,800 DK)
PF- Julius Randle ($6,400 FD, $6,200 DK)
C- Timofey Mozgov ($4,000 FD, $4,400 DK)

Julius Randle

This matchup will provide an extremely tough test for Randle. Gobert is dominant defensively but doesn’t carry the offensive volume to project big things for his opponents in the paint. Still, Randle’s evolution into a well-rounded offensive contributor needs to be respected and owned (to a point). He’s providing points, rebounds, and assists, and if that last category holds well (4.0 per game over his last 10), then we’re not too concerned with his lack of defensive stats. Still a bit undervalued throughout the industry, Randle looks like a solid, if not strong, dice roll for 5x value tonight.

Jordan Clarkson

Clarkson doesn’t start per se, but he tends to see equal playing time to that of the starting guards. (If the opener was any indication, Luke Walton will be blurring the starter/reserve line plenty this year.) Regardless, Clarkson is the most talented scorer of the bunch and will see plenty of run, often at the expense of Nick Young and even D’Angelo Russell. Clarkson was leaned upon heavily in the second half Wednesday, and while he can’t face Houston again, I’m generally on board. His ultra-efficient night, coupled with the Jazz’s disembowelment at the hands of Portland’s guards, makes me fairly confident he’ll strike again.

Utah Jazz

Projected Lineup
PG- George Hill ($6,100 FD, $5,500 DK)
SG- Rodney Hood ($5,700 FD, $6,200 DK)
SF- Joe Johnson ($5,600 FD, $4,900 DK)
PF- Derrick Favors ($7,200 FD, $6,700 DK)
C- Rudy Gobert ($7,000 FD, $7,300 DK)

Rudy Gobert

No, Timofey Mozgov probably isn’t enough to repair the Lakers’ woes in defending big men. Three nights after feasting upon the Blazers’ nonexistent frontcourt, Gobert looks poised to do the same in Los Angeles. He’s an absolute lynchpin – 41 minutes in the opener – and a superbly efficient center who maximizes his every opportunity. His 12-point, 14-rebound, 2-block season debut might actually be his floor tonight. He’s simply a phenomenal value.

George Hill

No, he’s not sexy, but Wednesday night showed us he’s capable of excelling DFS-wise against poor defensive backcourts. Gordon Hayward remains out, and Dante Exum looks like an afterthought at the moment, so Hill will keep his offensive facilitator role going in another favorable matchup. The Lakers will throw a lot of ultra-young D’Angelo Russell and no-defense Nick Young, and it’s fair to expect another easy-value night from Hill.

Trey Lyles

Derrick Favors remains iffy with his knee injury, but whether he plays or not, Lyles carries decent tournament value from the bench. He’s a talented youngster and offers much more offensive punch than Boris Diaw, so I expect him to claim more minutes in the rotation with or without Favors. And if Favors does suit up, Lyles is still in line for 20 minutes or so as the starter rounds into playing shape. Given the Lakers’ inability to defend the paint, Lyles could provide low-owned tournament value regardless of tonight’s injury report.