NBA Deep Dive October 27th

Photo: USA Today Sports

Celtics at Bulls

Vegas Line: Bos -1
Total- 210

Boston Celtics-

Projected Lineup
PG- Isaiah Thomas ($8,000 FD, $7,200 DK)
SG- Avery Bradley ($5,600FD, $4,900 DK)
SF- Jae Crowder ($5,500 FD, $5,200 DK)
PF- Amir Johnson ($5,000 FD, $3,500 DK)
C- Al Horford ($7,000 FD, $7,000 DK)

Isaiah Thomas-
This Bulls-Celtics game is projected to be the highest scoring game of the night. Thomas is coming off of a huge game last night where he had 25 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assists, and looks to build on it in what should be a fast tempo game. The matchup is a tough one, however, as he is going up against the newly acquired Rajon Rondo, who has been on the all-defensive team four times throughout his career. This is a GPP play, as many people will spend up at point guard or go down to Terry Rozier/Dennis Schroder. Thomas should see a high usage rate like he did last night, but ultimately there are better matchups to target for your cash games. Thomas is going to popular as people are going to look at the DVP last year for the Bulls, but you really can’t look at that as their entire back-court has changed outside of Butler.

Al Horford-
Al Horford is often overlooked in daily fantasy contests, primarily because nothing that he does is flashy. Last night’s game against Brooklyn was a prime example, where he had 11 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds and 4 blocks. This is not a great matchup going up against a player like Robin Lopez who is a good defensive rebounder and shot blocker, but with Demarcus Cousins in a tough matchup, Horford makes for a nice pivot off of Cousins if you are trying to be contrarian on this slate.

Avery Bradley-
The Bulls are a strong defensive unit, but the one area that they lack defense is the shooting guard position with Dwayne Wade. Dwayne Wade is not a horrible defender, but when comparing Wade to Rondo, Butler, Gibson and Lopez, Dwayne is the weak link in this defense. Bradley looked great in his season debut last night where he had 17 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists. His price is still depressed compared to where it should be making for a nice play with a weak shooting guard pool on this short slate.

Terry Rozier-

Terry Rozier saw 28 minutes last night while Marcus Smart is out, and his salary has not adjusted as he was unable to do much with the minutes last night. If Rozier plays 25+ minutes which we are expecting him to he should be able to reach value as we saw that during the preseason Rozier was able to get about 1 FanDuel point per minute. Rozier is a nice punt play in both GPP’s and cash games as you’re looking to find some salary relief to spend up on some of the elite players.

Chicago Bulls

Projected Lineup
PG- Rajon Rondo ($7,500 FD, $6,200 DK)
SG- Dwayne Wade ($7,000 FD, $6,300 DK)
SF- Jimmy Butler $8,200 FD, $7,400 DK)
PF- Taj Gibson ($5,300 FD, $4,100 DK)
C- Robin Lopez ($5,700 FD, $5,000 DK)

Jimmy Butler
It is going to be interesting to see how this Bulls team is going to shake out with three guards starting for them and no true shooter on the team. Butler is going up against Jae Crowder who Butler has a significant athletic advantage on. In the three games that Butler played against Boston last season, he had a double-double in two of those games, and 36 points/7 rebounds in the other game. He is a great cash game play as his floor is high enough to protect you while still having an elite ceiling.

Wizards at Hawks

Vegas Line: Atl -3
Total- 203.5

Washington Wizards

Projected Lineup
PG- John Wall ($9,400 FD, $8,200 DK)
SG- Bradley Beal ($6,200 FD, $5,700 DK)
SF- Otto Porter ($4,900 FD, $4,500 DK)
PF- Markieff Morris ($5,600 FD, $5,400 DK)
C- Marcin Gortat ($6,500 FD, $5,300 DK)

John Wall-
John Wall had a tremendous preseason and ended the preseason with 15 points 11 rebounds and 7 assists. Wall is in a great spot in this game as he takes on the newly starting Dennis Schroder who is replacing Jeff Teague who has since moved on to Indiana. This is an elite matchup for Wall as he has seen his usage rate hit 28.6% last season and looks to improve it this season. We have high expectations for Wall this season and he should be able to get off to a great start tonight in this game.

Atlanta Hawks

Projected Lineup
PG- Dennis Schroder ($6,500 FD, $6,500 DK)
SG- Kyle Korver ($3,800 FD, $3,300 DK)
SF- Kent Bazemore ($5,100 FD, $5,100 DK)
PF- Paul Millsap ($8,000 FD, $7,900 DK)
C- Dwight Howard ($7,500 FD, $7,500 DK)

Kent Bazemore-
Bazemore is one of the top value plays at small forward tonight as he takes on Otto Porter in this matchup. The Wizards allowed the 6^th most FanDuel points last year to small forwards and Porter was a big part of that as he is not an elite defender. Bazemore saw tremendous growth once he started seeing consistent minutes last year as he ended the season in April averaging 14.4 points and 8 rebounds per game. With the departure of both Jeff Teague and Al Horford, Bazemore should see more consistent playing time with close to 30 minutes per night. His price is based on his 2015-2016 averages and it is time to take advantage of him being under-priced in both cash games and GPP’s. The only concern is that with Butler and Leonard at the SF you may not have to play him in this one if you spend up on those two.

Spurs at Kings

Vegas Line:  SA -8
Total- 205

San Antonio Spurs

Projected Lineup
PG- Tony Parker ($4,700 FD, $4,400 DK)
SG- Kyle Anderson ($3,500 FD, $3,700 DK)
SF- Kawhi Leonard ($8,200 FD, $8,400 DK)
PF- Lamarcus Aldridge ($7,800 FD, $7,300 DK)
C- Pau Gasol ($7,100 FD, $6,600 DK)

Start your players against the Kings. Last year the Kings allowed the 5^th, 3^rd, 4^th, 5^th, most fantasy points to point guards, shooting guards, small forwards, and power forwards. The one position that they were league average against was the Center position making Pau Gasol a tough play today. Our favorite plays in this one are Kawhi Leonard and Lamarcus Aldridge as both of these players took 20+ shots in the league opener. It appears that they will be running their offense through these two players and for good reason. This was a team that put up 129 points against Golden State, and Sacramento has a worse defense thus making the Spurs the top team to target tonight.

One sleeper here is Jonathon Simmons. Simmons put up 20 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists against Golden State in the season opener in 28 minutes. Simmons makes for a great cash game play and GPP play as his salary has not increased thus providing a nice

Sacramento Kings

Projected Lineup
PG- Ty Lawson ($5,100 FD, $5,600 DK)
SG- Arron Afflalo ($3,900 FD, $3,800 DK)
SF- Rudy Gay ($6,900 FD, $5,900 DK)
PF- Demarcus Cousins ($9,800 FD, $10,300 DK)
C- Kosta Koufos ($3,600 FD, $3,000 DK)

Demarcus Cousins
The center position tonight is pretty soft. Cousins has shown that he is matchup proof as he averaged a double double last season against the Spurs including a 31 point 9 rebound game in March. Cousins provides the highest upside of any Center on this slate, and makes for a great play in all formats as some people will want to go down to a lower priced player as they are scared off this matchup, but Pau Gasol is not an elite defender and if there is one spot that you can exploit the Spurs it is at the Power Forward/Center position as we saw with Draymond Green in the season opener.

Clippers at Trailblazers

Vegas Line:  LAC -2
Total- 208

Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Lineup
PG- Chris Paul ($9,500 FD, $8,800 DK)
SG- J.J. Redick ($4,600 FD, $4,600 DK)
SF- Luc Richard Mbah a Moute ($3,900 FD, $3,000 DK)
PF- Blake Griffin ($9,100 FD, $9,200 DK)
C- Deandre Jordan ($8,000 FD, $7,700 DK)

Chris Paul-
Chris Paul was extremely volatile last year against the Trailblazers last year as he had two of his worst games of the year and had two very strong games including a 21 point 19 assist game in January. The return of Blake Griffin will lower Paul’s usage as he has a career 23.8 usage rate when Blake Griffin is in the lineup. Paul is a player who is always under consideration in cash games as he does so much more than just score making his floor very safe. Throughout his career he has averaged 46.7 FanDuel points when matched up against Damian Lillard making him a very safe play tonight for cash games.

Portland Trailblazers

Projected Lineup
PG- Damian Lillard ($9,100 FD, $9,200 DK)
SG- C.J. McCollum ($6,900 FD, $6,800 DK)
SF- Maurice Harkless ($5,200 FD, $3,600 DK)
PF- Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,600 FD, $4,500 DK)
C- Mason Plumlee ($5,100 FD, $4,300 DK)

C.J. McCollum-
Take advantage of C.J. McCollum’s price as he is turning into one of the best scorers in the NBA and his price has not adjusted accordingly. In a tough matchup going up against Utah in the season opener, McCollum was still able to score 25 points in that game. Going up against JJ Redick who is considered an above average defender, but not an elite defender is a favorable matchup for McCollum compared to his matchup against Utah. McCollum should be a great play in this slate where there are not a lot of good shooting guard options to consider.