NBA Deep Dive October 26th

Photo: USA Today Sports

MIAMI HEAT AT ORLANDO MAGIC

Vegas Line: Orl -4
Total- 201

Miami Heat

Projected Lineup
PG- Goran Dragic ($6,900 FD, $7,000 DK)
SG- Dion Waiters ($4,500 FD, $4,100 DK)
SF- Justise Winslow ($4,700 FD, $5,000 DK)
PF- Derrick Williams ($5,000 FD, $3,900 DK)
C- Hassan Whiteside ($8,700 FD, $8,600 DK)

Hassan Whiteside-
Whiteside absolutely dominated the Magic last season as he had a double double in three of his four games against them while averaged 3.5 blocks per game. Whiteside has a big athletic matchup advantage over Nikola Vucevic which has helped him have so much success over the past history. Whiteside is hard to trust in cash games however especially in this slate, where there are a lot of good cheap options at the Center position such as Capela, Steven Adams on FanDuel, Jusuf Nurkic, and Demarcus Cousins. Whiteside is a great GPP play, as his ownership will be lower than it otherwise should be based on such a high volume of people trying to spend up to Harden and or Westbrook. Orlando allowed the 10^th most FanDuel points last season to Centers last year and with the loss of Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade, expect for Whiteside to take on an even bigger role this season.

Orlando Magic

Projected Lineup
PG- Elfrid Payton ($5,900 FD, $5,600 DK)
SG- Evan Fournier ($5,800 FD, $6,400 DK)
SF- Aaron Gordon ($5,600 FD, $6,300 DK)
PF- Serge Ibaka ($4,800 FD, $6,200 DK)
C- Nikola Vucevic ($7,700 FD, $6,600 DK)

Aaron Gordon-
There are high expectations for the #4 overall pick in the 2014 draft to step up heading into his third season. Gordon has tremendous athleticism as shown in the dunk contest in 2015 that re-energized the contest with him and Zach LaVine going back and forth. Gordon had an up and down year in 2015, as he showed flashes of a breakout star like in the month of February where he averaged 11 points and 10 rebounds per game, but then took a step back in March when he had just 11 points and 6 rebounds per game. This is a tough matchup against a good defensive team in Miami, so Gordon is probably best served as a GPP option only as there are other games that you want to target and we want to if the reports of him having a breakout season are true before trusting him in cash games.

DALLAS MAVERICKS AT INDIANA PACERS

Vegas Line: Ind -6.5
Total- 206.5

Dallas Mavericks

Projected Lineup
PG- Deron Williams ($6,000 FD, $5,400 DK)
SG- Wesley Matthews ($4,800 FD, $4,900 DK)
SF- Harrison Barnes ($4,800 FD, $5,800 DK)
PF- Dirk Nowitzki ($6,700 FD, $5,800 DK)
C- Andrew Bogut ($4,000 FD, $5,000 DK)

Harrison Barnes
This is a FanDuel only play, as his price is too high on DraftKings, but on FanDuel he is a nice salary relief play. The Mavericks had a lot of faith in Barnes when they signed him to a max contract deal that was questioned by many. Barnes has not done much to answer the questions in the preseason as he averaged just 6.6 points per game and 4.2 rebounds per game while averaging 22 minutes played. That simply is not good enough for a max player, however, it is just preseason basketball and now that the games count we are hoping that he will start to turn it around. There are a lot of red flags for Barnes as the matchup is not a good one, but the talent is simply too great at $4,800 when comparing him to other players at this range. He is not a must play by any means and is not a great GPP play, as he does not have a ceiling that we want to take in a tough matchup against Paul George who is a good defender, but in cash games he should see 30+ minutes and with that talent he should be able to come close to paying off his low salary.

Indiana Pacers

Projected Lineup
PG- Jeff Teague ($6,200 FD, $6,000 DK)
SG- Monta Ellis ($5,500 FD, $5,100 DK)
SF- Paul George ($9,500 FD, $8,700 DK)
PF- Thaddeus Young ($6,600 FD, $5,500 DK)
C- Myles Turner ($6,400 FD, $6,200 DK)

Jeff Teague-
Jeff Teague is starting his first game for the Indiana Pacers tonight after spending the last seven seasons with the Atlanta Hawks. Teague got off to a great start in the preseason as he had three 15+ point games. This game sets up really well for Teague, as Deron Williams has never been a great defender. With Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, and Andrew Bogut all considered better than average defenders, this is a matchup that Teague should have the advantage in and be a focal point in this offense.

BROOKLYN NETS AT BOSTON CELTICS

Vegas Line:  Bos -13.5
Total- 212

Brooklyn Nets

Projected Lineup
PG- Jeremy Lin ($6,300 FD, $6,000 DK)
SG- Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,100 FD, $4,100 DK)
SF- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($4,300 FD, $4,600 DK)
PF- Trevor Booker ($6,900 FD, $7,400 DK)
C- Brook Lopez ($8,400 FD, $7,400 DK)

Jeremy Lin-

Lin has looked tremendous in the preseason ending it with 24 points and 10 rebounds and had a usage rate of 27.7 which is above the 25 point that we typically want to target a player. If this game was expected to be closer it could be considered in cash games, but with the expected blowout this is one that is a GPP only play.

Boston Celtics

Projected Lineup
PG- Isaiah Thomas ($7,100 FD, $8,000 DK)
SG- Avery Bradley ($5,600 FD, $4,800 DK)
SF- Jae Crowder ($5,500 FD, $5,400 DK)
PF- Amir Johnson $5,000 FD, $3,700 DK)
C- Al Horford $7,000 FD, $7,000 DK)

Isaiah Thomas
Similar to Jeremy Lin and the Brooklyn Nets, it is hard to trust the Celtics in this game due to the expected blowout that this game will be. This matchup is a great one however, as Brooklyn allowed the third most FanDuel points to point guards last season, and they did not help their cause by adding Jeremy Lin who is known as an average defender at best. Thomas should be able to have his way with Lin. The one concern here is that Thomas only averaged 16.7 minutes per game in the preseason, meaning if this game is a blowout in the 4^th quarter it is assumed that Thomas will be unlikely to play as he continues to ramp up his minutes. This will ultimately lower his ownership percentage which makes him a good GPP play, but can not be trusted for cash due to the high cost.

DETROIT PISTONS AT TORONTO RAPTORS

Vegas Line:  Tor -7.5
Total- 195

Detroit Pistons

Projected Lineup
PG- Ish Smith ($6,400 FD, $4,700 DK)
SG- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,500 FD, $4,400 DK)
SF- Marcus Morris ($5,600 FD, $4,600 DK)
PF- Tobias Harris ($6,300 FD, $5,700 DK)
C- Andre Drummond ($8,200 FD, $8,400 DK)

Ish Smith- DraftKings only

Reggie Jackson is going to be out for a while with a knee injury opening the door for newly acquired Ish Smith. Smith is a point guard that when he sees the minutes can fill up the entire stat sheet with rebounds, assists, steals and the occasional block. Smith is going up against Kyle Lowry who had his best statistical defensive year in 2015-2016 which should limit Smith’s upside, but Smith is expected to see about 30 minutes tonight which at $4,700 on DraftKings should be able to reach value rather easily.

Toronto Raptors

Projected Lineup
PG- Kyle Lowry ($8,000 FD, $7,100 DK)
SG- DeMar Derozan ($7,500 FD, $7,200 DK)
SF- Demarre Carroll ($4,700 FD, $4,800 DK)
PF- Patrick Patterson ($3,700 FD, $3,900 DK)
C- Jonas Valanciunas ($5,700 FD, $6,500 DK)

This is a tough matchup in what should be a low paced game as both teams were in the bottom 10 in pace last season. At the current price, there really is not anyone that you should be targeting on Toronto as the salaries are not reflecting the actual pace of the expected game.

CHARLOTTE HORNETS AT MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Vegas Line:  Char -1
Total- 192.5

Charlotte Hornets

Projected Lineup
PG- Kemba Walker ($8,100 FD, $7,700 DK)
SG- Nicolas Batum ($6,200 FD, $6,400 DK)
SF- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($5,400 FD, $5,000 DK)
PF- Marvin Williams ($5,000 FD, $4,700 DK)
C- Cody Zeller ($4,600 FD, $4,500 DK)

The Bucks should be one of the top defensive teams in the NBA season, and the Vegas projected total reflects this. This is a situation where the Hornets should be avoided and you should target other high scoring potential games.

Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Lineup
PG- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,400 FD, $8,800 DK)
SG- Matthew Dellavedova ($4,500 FD, $4,000 DK)
SF- Jabari Parker ($6,100 FD, $6,700 DK)
PF- Mirza Teletovic ($4,000 FD, $4,300 DK)
C- Greg Monroe ($5,800 FD, $5,500 DK)

Giannis Antetokounmpo-
If you stopped following the NBA at the all-star break last season, you would have missed the emergence of a superstar. Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 21 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists in the month of April. Giannis is a great GPP play, as he has triple double upside every time he touches the floor especially with the loss of Khris Middleton, the Bucks will be relying on him more than ever in this game. The Bucks traded Michael Carter-Williams in the offseason to the Bulls which will provide Giannis the opportunity to increase his usage. He can not be trusted in cash just with the way the slate shakes out as you will want one of Harden or Westbrook in your lineup making it difficult to also get Giannis in there.

Mirza Teletovic-
Mirza Teletovic is projected to start tonight and his salary is reflective of someone who should be a backup. The Bucks went out and signed Teletovic to a 3 year 30 Million Dollar deal in the offseason. Teletovic has always been a scorer and a great three point shooter, thus providing the Bucks with some much needed three point shooting as the defense focuses in on stopping Antetokounmpo. Teletovic only needs about 20 point to pay off value, and we have seen what he is able to do when he gets hot as he ended the season last year as he averaged 22 points per game in April of last year coming off the bench for the Spurs. He is point reliant which is not something that we want to fully trust, but he should be able to pull in a few rebounds thus helping his floor in cash and if he gets hot have a ceiling in GPP’s. 

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES AT MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Vegas Line:  Mem -2
Total- 200

Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Lineup
PG- Ricky Rubio ($6,500 FD, $6,400 DK)
SG- Zach Lavine ($5,500 FD, $5,400 DK)
SF- Andrew Wiggins ($6,600 FD, $6,500 DK)
PF- Gorgui Dieng ($5,500 FD, $5,600 DK)
C- Karl Anthony-Towns ($8,800 FD, $9,200 DK)

Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Lineup
PG- Mike Conley ($6,800 FD, $6,800 DK)
SG- Tony Allen ($4,000 FD, $3,600 DK)
SF- James Ennis ($9,600 FD, $9,000 DK)
PF- JaMychal Green ($5,000 FD, $4,100 DK)
C- Marc Gasol ($7,300 FD, $6,000 DK)

Memphis is a team that you should look to avoid in this game. Gasol would be tempting, but he is likely to be on a minutes restriction tonight. The only play that you could consider is JaMychal Green who we currently have projected to see 31 minutes in this game, and saw nearly 0.8 FanDuel points per minute last year which would put him in the neighborhood of 20-25 FanDuel points tonight if he sees 31 minutes per game.

DENVER NUGGETS AT NEW ORLEANS PELICANS

Vegas Line:  NO -2
Total- 207

Denver Nuggets

Projected Lineup
PG- Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,800 FD, $6,200 DK)
SG- Will Barton ($5,100 FD, $4,600 DK)
SF- Danilo Gallinari ($7,100 FD, $6,200 DK)
PF- Nikola Jokic ($6,300 FD, $6,900 DK)
C- Jusef Nurkic ($4,600 FD, $5,800 DK)

Jusef Nurkic- FD
This is another situation where a player is under-priced on a site that we need to take advantage of. Nurkic has double-double upside any time that he plays, but for cash, we prefer Steven Adams and Clint Capela as they are in slightly better spots. Nurkic is a great pivot in GPP’s away from those two.

New Orleans Pelicans

Projected Lineup
PG- Tim Frazier ($5,000 FD, $4,800 DK)
SG- E’Twaun Moore ($4,500 FD, $4,500 DK)
SF- Solomon Hill ($4,300 FD, $4,000 DK)
PF- Anthony Davis $10,200 FD, $10,100 DK)
C- Omer Asik ($3,700 FD, $3,300 DK)

Tim Frazier-
The Pelicans don’t have another point guard that they can trust on this roster due to Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans being out of this game. Frazier is going to see up to 30 minutes in this game and last year he saw 0.9 FanDuel points per minute. Frazier is one of the best value plays of the night and should be safely used in cash games and GPP as with the injuries Frazier should be forced to do a lot for the Pelicans in this one.

Anthony Davis-
Davis is going to be extremely under-owned due to the ownership of the Westbrook and Harden. Davis has as much upside as anyone on any slate, and this game is projected to be one of the highest scoring games of the day.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER AT PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

Vegas Line:  OKC -8.5
Total- 208

Oklahoma City

Projected Lineup
PG- Russell Westbrook ($12,000 FD, $11,500 DK)
SG- Victor Oladipo ($7,400 FD, $7,100 DK)
SF- Andre Roberson ($3,900 FD, $3,400 DK)
PF- Domantas Sabonis ($4,200 FD, $4,200 DK)
C- Steven Adams ($4,700 FD, $5,800 DK)

Russell Westbrook-

This is the matchup that we have all been waiting for all off-season. Russell Westbrook who averaged 49 FanDuel points per game without Kevin Durant last season is going up against a 76ers team who were the 4^th worst defensive team against point guards last season. This is a dream matchup for Westbrook that does not need a lot of explaining and makes him a tremendous cash game and GPP play today.

Steven Adams- FanDuel

Another case where a player is undervalued on one site compared to the other. Adams was able to build off of his tremendous end to last season with two consecutive double-doubles to end the preseason. He is quickly turning into one of the best centers in the league and should be relied on more this season without Durant in the offense as the entire team sees a bump to their usage. Adams is one of the top centers on the day as he is going up against a group of guys who are on minutes restrictions in Jahlil Okafor and Joel Embiid. The 76ers allowed the most FanDuel points last season to Centers which while Embiid should help that stat this year, it will still be tough for the 76ers to stop Adams in this one and is a great play in both cash and GPP’s today.

Philadelphia 76ers

Projected Lineup
PG- Sergio Rodriguez ($5,000 FD, $3,200 DK)
SG- Gerald Henderson ($4,200 FD, $3,700 DK)
SF- Robert Covington ($5,900 FD, $5,300 DK)
PF- Dario Saric ($4,900 FD, $4,700 DK)
C- Joel Embiid ($4,700 FD, $5,400 DK)

Sergio Rodriguez- DraftKings
Sergio Rodriguez is close to a must play in cash on DraftKings. He is a player who is coming over from Spain after spending last season at Real Madrid. Rodriguez is filling in for the injured Jerryd Bayless who is expected to be out for a few weeks and Rodriguez will likely filling in and getting most of the minutes. In the preseason, Rodriguez averaged just 7 points, 6 assists and 2 rebounds per game, but at $3,200 this should be enough for him to pay off his value and allow you to spend up elsewhere.

Joel Embiid-

Embiid has been dominant this preseason averaging 14 points and 7 rebounds in just 16 minutes of play per game. This is an incredible efficiency rating averaging well over 1 FanDuel point per minute. The issue is that we just don’t know how many minutes he is going to play in this game and he goes up against a tough matchup in Steven Adams who is a good physical defender. Embiid is a GPP play tonight as this game should be high scoring and if he plays 20-25 minutes could pay off his salary if he continues his high-efficiency rating that we have seen so far this year.

Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns

Vegas Line:  Pho -2.5
Total- 212

Sacramento Kings

Projected Lineup
PG- Ty Lawson ($5,100 FD, $5,500 DK)
SG- Arron Afllalo ($3,900 FD, $3,700 DK)
SF- Rudy Gay $6,900 FD, $6,700 DK)
PF- Demarcus Cousins ($10,000 FD, $10,600 DK)
C- Kosta Koufos ($3,600 FD, $3,100 DK)

Ty Lawson-
This is a tremendous spot for Ty Lawson who is filling in for the suspended Darren Collison. Lawson is expected to start for this team for the short-term while they wait for Collison to return. He did miss a flight due to personal reasons yesterday, but is still expected to play, so keep an eye on our breaking news if something changes. He is in a tremendous spot in this game as it should be an up and down fast paced contest. If he starts, Lawson is one of the top plays in both cash and GPP’s on this slate.

Phoenix Suns

Projected Lineup
PG- Eric Bledsoe ($7,600 FD, $7,900 DK)
SG- Devin Booker ($6,200 FD, $6,500 DK)
SF- T.J. Warren ($4,500 FD, $4,200 DK)
PF- Jared Dudley ($4,200 FD, $3,800 DK)
C- Alex Len ($6,000 FD, $4,900 DK)

Devin Booker-
This is a great spot for Devin Booker, as the second year player looks to build off of a big rookie season and is being compared to Steph Curry in some reports. Booker had a very strong preseason as he averaged 19.4 points per game in 27 minutes and he looks to carry that over to the regular season. This is a great matchup tonight as the Suns take on a Kings team that played at the fastest pace in the NBA and were the second worst team against shooting guards. Booker should be a staple in cash games tonight and a great GPP play although he will be popular as many people will be on the same chalk plays due to Westbrook and Harden’s ownership.

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers

Vegas Line:  Hou -6.5
Total- 223

Game Overview

Houston Rockets

Projected Lineup
PG- James Harden ($11,200 FD, $10,900 DK)
SG- Eric Gordon ($5,200 FD, $5,000 DK)
SF- Trevor Ariza ($5,500 FD, $5,800 DK)
PF- Ryan Anderson ($6,800 FD, $6,700 DK)
C- Clint Capela ($4,200 FD, $5,700 DK)

All of the starters are in play in this game as this is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night.

James Harden-
This slate is going to be all about if you can find a way to fit both James Harden and Russell Westbrook in together in cash. It is not an easy feat, but it is possible. Mark D’Antoni takes over as coach of the Rockets and brings a fast paced run and gun style to Houston. This greatly increases an offense that already was top 10 in pace last season. With the departure of Dwight Howard, this team is all about James Harden. He should have one of the highest usage rates in the NBA this season, and this spot couldn’t be a better one to open the season as he is going up against a Lakers team that allowed the fourth most points last year and the most points to point guards last year.

Clint Capela-
Clint Capela is a great option to save some salary in this slate as this should be the highest scoring game of the night with two fast paced teams going back and forth. Choosing between Steven Adams and Clint Capela at the Center spot on FanDuel is going to be a difficult decision, as both are in elite matchups as the Lakers gave up the third most FanDuel points to centers last season. The addition of Timofey Mozgov should help their defense a little bit, but Capela is still in a great spot in this game. James Harden repeatedly tried to get the team to play Capela over Howard which led to Howard departing for Atlanta, so Howard trusts that Capela is a great fit for this offense.

Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Lineup
PG- D’Angelo Russell ($6,500 FD, $7,100 DK)
SG- Jordan Clarkson ($5,700 FD, $6,100 DK)
SF- Luol Deng ($5,600 FD, $4,800 DK)
PF- Julius Randle ($6,300 FD, $5,900 DK)
C- Timofey Mozgov ($3,900 FD, $4,400 DK)

D’Angelo Russell
D’Angelo Russell showed signs that he may potentially have a breakout season this year, as he ended the season with some monster games. He also was extremely volatile last year where he would go through hot stretches and then cold stretches where he would score less than 10 points. A lot of this volatility had to do with whether Kobe Bryant was playing, as when Kobe was playing most of the other starters for the Lakers usage decreased significantly. Russell’s usage without Kobe last year was 27.7 compared to 24.1 when Bryant was playing. This is a tremendous up-tick in usage rate that heading into this year makes him very likeable. This is an elite matchup as he will likely be guarded against James Harden who is one of the worst defenders in the NBA. Russell should be a staple in your cash game and GPP lineups if you can afford him as we look to get as much exposure to this game as possible.

Julius Randle 
Julius Randle averaged a double-double last season in what truly was his rookie year as he missed the first year in the league with an injury. Randle fluctuated between starter and coming off the bench last year, but should be a full on starter this year in Luke Walton’s offense as the Lakers hope that Randle can play a Draymond Green type role. Green mentored Randle in the offseason even going as far to say that Randle could be better than Green. The Rockets last season were the 2^nd worst team against power forwards making this an elite matchup as Randle goes up against Ryan Anderson who is a perimeter power forward and should have a tough time defending Randle. We want as much exposure to this game as possible and Randle should see plenty of opportunity and is a great play in both cash games and GPP’s tonight.