NBA Deep Dive October 25th

Photo: USA Today Sports

October 25th 2016 NBA DFS Deep Dive

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers

Vegas Line: Cavs -9,
Total- 204

New York Knicks

The Knicks as a whole are in a tough matchup going up against a Cleveland team that is going to be hanging their championship banner. The Knicks made wholesale changes across the board with the addition of Derrick Rose, Courtney Lee and Joakim Noah in the offseason. This sets up for a very unknown situation as we were unable to see all of the starters together with Derrick Rose’s legal suit taking up much of the preseason. Kristaps Porzingis has looked very good this preseason as he is averaging 12 points and five rebounds in just 22 minutes of play. One key concern here is Joakim Noah as his defense in the preseason has been very poor and he is still trying to get up to speed with his new team. Expect a decrease in minutes for Noah in this game as he does not appear to be 100% healthy, we fully expect he will see minutes in the low to mid 20’s and not the high 20’s like we saw last year in Chicago.

Projected Lineup
PG- Derrick Rose ($6,000 FD, $5,800 DK)
SG- Courtney Lee ($3,900 FD, $3,700 DK)
SF- Carmelo Anthony ($8,000 FD, $7,600 DK)
PF- Kristaps Porzingas ($6,900 FD, $7,400 DK)
C- Joakim Noah ($5,000 FD, $5,500 DK)

Key Players-

Derrick Rose-
Derrick Rose is in a great spot in this game as he takes on Kyrie Irving who is a mediocre defender at best over his career and an awful defender at worst. Rose has averaged 29 FanDuel points over the last three season against the Cavs including three 20+ point games. This is a GPP situation, as with the legal trial consuming most of Rose’s offseason it is hard to trust him in this situation with having only one preseason game under his belt.

Kristaps Porzingis-
Porzingis has looked tremendous in the preseason as he continues to build upon his great rookie season. Porzingis had one of his best days of the season last year against Cleveland in a loss where he had 23 points, 13 rebounds, and 4 assists. At 7’3’’ tall, Porzingis has a significant height advantage over Tristan Thompson or Kevin Love all while being a very athletic tall player, so he should be able to have an advantage that we saw last season. Porzingis is a phenomenal talent who could carry your DFS lineups this year and have a true breakout performance, this is the time to take a stand on him, and he is a good GPP and cash game play albeit there still is some risk from the 21-year-old but the upside and the profit potential from taking a player like this to have a breakout is there.

Sleeper-
Brandon Jennings-
By some reports, Jennings has looked like he is the best point guard on this team. The problem is we don’t yet know how the minutes are going to be split between Jennings and Rose and with the Knicks trading for Rose in the offseason they are going to want to give him first crack at this to see how he is able to contribute. Keep an eye on Jennings in this game, but it is hard to use him in DFS this week unless you’re looking for a GPP sleeper.

Cleveland Cavaliers-
This is a big game for the Cavs as they are taking on a New York Knicks team but also raising the championship banner for the first time in Cleveland in over 50 years. There is going to be a lot of emotions in this game that the team is going to want to come out with a great first game. The Cavs are taking on a New York Knicks team that has high expectations heading into this game that they can compete in the Eastern Conference with newly acquired Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. One key thing to note is that even with the lack of shooting guards on this slate, we are unable to recommend J.R. Smith on this slate.  J.R. Smith is one of the most unpredictable players in the NBA, and a notorious slow starter as October/November are by far his worst statistical months averaging just 9.6 points in October and 11.7 points in November compared to his career average of 13.2 points per game. Smith had a volatile contract negotiation in the offseason which really prevented him from seeing much playing time outside of one preseason game where he only saw 12 minutes of playing time. This is a real concern for this game and even though the shooting guard position is weak, he is an avoid on this slate even in GPP’s as there are too many red flags popping up for him to be trusted.

Projected Lineup
PG- Kyrie Irving ($7,100 FD, $8,000 DK)
SG- J.R. Smith ($4,500 FD, $4,100 DK)
SF- LeBron James ($9,600 FD, $9,000 DK)
PF- Kevin Love ($6,800 FD, $7,000 DK)
C- Tristan Thompson ($4,800 FD, $5,100 DK)

LeBron James-
LeBron James has absolutely dominated the Knicks and Carmelo Anthony as he has averaged 44.3 FanDuel points over the last three seasons against the Knicks. Carmelo Anthony has never been known as a great defender, and LeBron loves to put on a show against his friend. There has been a lot of talk in the offseason about limiting LeBron’s minutes and being smart about how the Cavs use him as he enters into his age 32 season. Either way with this being the opening night we expect that LeBron will have a great game for his home fans as he raises the first banner Cleveland has seen in over 50 years. This will be an emotional night which should help LeBron in this game as he is one of the top players in both cash and GPP’s and could easily put up 50+ fantasy points.

Kyrie Irving-
Kyrie Irving is in a tough spot in this game, as he has really struggled against Derrick Rose in the past. The biggest reason for this is the size differential between Rose and Irving. Irving has averaged just 31.8 FanDuel points against the Bulls over the last three seasons compared to 33.8 against all teams during this time period. This is a big night for the Cavs, and Irving would make for a nice differentiation play away from Lebron James in this game or you could stack the two together in this short slate format and take a stand that the Cavs will score a lot of points.

Utah Jazz at Portland Trailblazers

Vegas Line: Por -6
Total- 193

Utah Jazz

The Jazz are historically one of the slower pace teams in the league and one of the best defensive teams in the league as they use their size to their full advantage. To make matters worse the Jazz are entering this season without their best player in Gordon Hayward and without Alec Burks who provides a nice depth off the bench. With these two, players out however, this creates a nice opportunity for the surrounding players to see an uptick in production.

Projected Lineup
PG- George Hill ($5,600 FD, $5,300 DK)
SG- Rodney Hood ($5,400 FD, $6,000 DK)
SF- Joe Johnson ($5,400 FD, $4,300 DK)
PF- Derrick Favors ($6,900 FD, $6,700 DK)
C- Rudy Gobert ($6,200 FD, $7,000 DK)

Key Players-

Rodney Hood-
Rodney Hood is a guy who is a nice GPP play without Gordon Hayward in this lineup. Last year without Gordon Hayward in the lineup Rodney Hood went for 21 points, 8 assists, 2 rebounds, and a steal. Hood is not a guy who is consistent enough to be recommended in cash games but has the type of game that can place highly in a GPP if his shot is falling as we saw 13 times last year where he had 20 or more points.

Derrick Favors-
Derrick Favors typically would be someone who we would want to target as he has a significant size and weight advantage over Al-Farouq Aminu or Ed Davis, but he is questionable in this game with an ankle injury. He did recently return to practice for the first time since October 7^th, but all reports say that it was in a limited capacity, so if he does play it might be in limited minutes. He is a GPP play only this week as the matchup is a good one as he averaged 32.3 FanDuel points per game last year against Portland, but due to the injury, it makes him tough to trust.

Rudy Gobert-
Rudy Gobert has focused on becoming a better shooter in the 2016-2017 season and it is starting to show in the preseason. In the preseason, Gobert averaged 62.8% from the field and 74.5% from the free throw line. Comparing this to last year where he averaged 55.9% from the field and 56.9% from the free throw line. This is a great sign for the third year player out of France as he looks to continue to mature and grow his game. The issue is that the matchup is a good one as he averaged 32.3 FanDuel points per game last year against Portland, and with the improved shooting should only increase. He is a top play in both cash games and GPP’s on this short three game slate.

George Hill-
Nothing is going to be exciting about George Hill in this matchup, but the newly acquired Hill has shown that in the preseason he can be very productive. He should see an increase in usage rate by going to Utah compared to last year at Indiana, and with Hayward out, he should see a great opportunity for to fill up all of the statistical categories. Hill makes for a safe cash game play as at his price, as he should provide a nice safe floor with low double digit points and close to 8 assists, but at his price, he is not in a cheap enough discount to make him a must start.  The Jazz do have Dante Exum, who could potentially eat into Hill’s minutes, so it is a risk starting Hill, but his floor should be high enough for cash, but his ceiling may not be high enough for GPP's.

Trey Lyles-
If Derrick Favors is ruled out of this game, Trey Lyles is almost a must start for this slate. In 20 games last year without Derrick Favors, Lyles averaged 20.5 FanDuel points per game which at his $4,000 salary is reaching 5x on average. The matchup isn’t ideal as Al-Farouq Aminu is a borderline elite defender, but in a slate where you’re looking for salary relief, this is a great opportunity to open up some of your cap room assuming Favors misses this game.

Portland Trailblazers

The Trailblazers are in one of the most difficult matchups in the NBA, and the issue is that they are not priced accordingly as many of their players are still very expensive as they are factoring in last year’s numbers. We don’t anticipate that the Jazz will be worse offensively, so be careful when building your lineups for cash lineups, as the number of possessions that the Trailblazers will see should be significantly worse than what they would see under normal circumstances. The Trailblazers did have success last year against the Jazz averaging 104.5 points per game compared to the Jazz season average allowed of 93.5. This makes for a good GPP opportunity as a lot of people will be off of the Trailblazers players due to playing in slower tempo games.

Projected Lineup
PG- Damian Lillard ($8,900 FD, $8,500 DK)
SG- C.J. McCollum ($6,900 FD, $6,300 DK)
SF- Maurice Harkless ($5,600 FD, $3,700 DK)
PF- Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,000 FD, $4,400 DK)
C- Mason Plumlee ($5,500 FD, $4,900 DK)

Damian Lillard-
Damian Lillard has one of the highest usage rates in the NBA at 31.3 last season. Lillard matched up well against the Jazz last season averaging 42 FanDuel points per game, compared to 34.9 FanDuel points on average against all teams last year. Lillard has some of the highest upside of any fantasy player as he can light up the fourth quarter in close games and seemingly take games over at times. George Hill is a very good defender in the past, but Lillard has proven that he is matchup proof when he is on and needs to be in GPP consideration anytime he is playing.

C.J. McCollum
McCollum has found a lot of historical success against this Utah Jazz team as we previously mentioned that the Trailblazers still have found a way to score against the Jazz. McCollum in 2015 averaged 37 FanDuel points per game including putting up 25 points per game in three of the four meetings last year. This is a slate with very few options at the shooting guard position, and McCollum had a usage rate of 27.2 last season. Combining the usage rate and the past history makes McCollum almost a must play in all formats for this slate.              

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors

Vegas Line:  GS -8
Total- 212

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs see the biggest uptick in tempo on the night as they go up against Golden State who had the second highest pace in the 2015-2016 season and this is expected to increase with the addition of Kevin Durant. The Warriors are solid defensively compared to their pace as they only allowed the 19^th most points per game last year which is surprising for a team that plays as fast as they do. The Spurs enter this season with the big addition of Pau Gasol who fits perfectly in this offense as a smart center who can rebound, pass and shoot similar to a Tim Duncan type role.

Projected Lineup
PG- Tony Parker ($5,000 FD, $4,600 DK)
SG- Kyle Anderson ($3,500 FD, $3,500 DK)
SF- Kawhi Leonard ($7,900 FD, $7,800 DK)
PF- LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,400 FD, $7,100 DK)
C- Pau Gasol ($7,600 FD, $6,900 DK)

Key Players-

Kyle Anderson-
On a short slate early in the season value is going to be incredibly difficult to find as most of the starters are healthy and in the NBA we are always looking for players who are filling in for injured players. Kyle Anderson is filling in for Danny Green in this game. Kyle Anderson averaged 0.8 FanDuel points per minute last year which if he sees 30 minutes should be enough for him to reach value. There is a little bit of risk here as his usage rate is only 14.1% which is typically lower than what we would want to see from a player, but this game should be an up-tempo game and there are not a lot of cheap options on this slate making Anderson a great cash game play. For GPP’s, he is not a bad play, but he will be highly owned so you could go contrarian and fade him in this one.

Kawhi Leonard-
Kawhi Leonard has absolutely dominated the matchup against Kevin Durant, as in the 2015-2016 season he averaged 46 FanDuel points per game against Durant’s old team Oklahoma City. Leonard scored 20+ points in 8 of 9 games and 4+ blocks and steals in 6 of 9 games. With this projected to be the highest scoring game of the night, Kawhi is one of the top plays on this slate as he is one of the surest plays outside of Lebron and Curry. He is heavily discounted from the top end guys making him one of the best plays of the day in both cash and GPP’s.

Pau Gasol-
There really are not a lot of great center plays in this slate outside of Rudy Gobert. However Gasol is an intriguing play in this slate, as he is going up against a player in Zaza Pachulia who has been a great rim protector over his career, but Gasol may be able to give Pachulia issues as he can stretch the floor and make Pachulia move away from the basket which is where he is comfortable playing. This puts Gasol in a GPP spot as a pivot away from Gobert as the top center on this slate.

Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors are coming off of a season where they won 73 games breaking the Chicago Bulls prior record of 72 wins.  Needless to say, it would have seemed difficult if the Warriors would have improved on last year’s record but that’s exactly what they have done as they have signed one of the best players in the league in Kevin Durant.

Projected Lineup
PG- Steph Curry ($9,300 FD, $9,600 DK)
SG- Klay Thompson ($6,500 FD, $6,500 DK)
SF- Kevin Durant ($9,300 FD, $9,400 DK)
PF- Draymond Green ($8,200 FD, $7,200 DK)
C- Zaza Pachulia ($4,800 FD, $4,000 DK)

Steph Curry-
Curry is coming off of a season where he won his second straight MVP and is looking to rebound after a tough NBA playoffs last year. He started the preseason off cold but has finished very strong as he averaged 33.5 points per game in the last two tune-ups of the pre-season. Curry averaged 45.8 FanDuel points per game against the Spurs over the last two seasons which was under his average of 47.9 for last year. With Curry matching up against the aging Tony Parker, he should still be in a good spot to perform this week. Curry is in a better spot as a cash game play than a GPP play, as he will be very popular and is facing a good defense that he has not performed consistently against in the past.

Klay Thompson-
This three-game slate is barren of any great options at the SG position, and on certain sites, you have to start two of them. Thompson is a good matchup with Danny Green out as Kyle Anderson is by all accounts not a great defender and is still learning to adapt to the NBA. Thompson ended the preseason on a cold streak as he only shot 23% in his last game, and he just averaged 23.2 FanDuel points per game against San Antonio last season which is cause for concern although in all of those games he was guarded by the aforementioned Green. The ultimate issue here is that there are not a lot of great shooting guard options, so people will gravitate towards Klay, but he is a GPP play only in this game due to his lack of historical success, the addition of Durant, and his poor shooting form entering the season.