HAWKS AT CAVS
Vegas Line: CLE -8
Total- 207
Atlanta Hawks
Projected Lineup
PG- Dennis Schroder
SG- Kent Bazemore
SF- Thabo Sefolosha
PF- Paul Millsap
C- Dwight Howard
Kyle Korver is going to miss this game with injury and Thabo Sefolosha is expected to start. Sefolosha is a player who has seen a usage rate throughout his career of 12.5 which is absolutely awful. He is not a player who can be trusted to come in and have a high volume of points, rebounds or assists. If you start him you are going to be relying on his ability to force turnovers and create steals as he is averaging 2.8 steals per game. He is a much better DraftKings play than FanDuel simply because of the way the pricing structure works out where DraftKings it pays off to start some of the cheaper players, but he is risky. He will be popular as most of the new starters are every time there is an injury, but he is by no means cheap enough to trust as he is not minimum salary across the industry.
Kent Bazemore is a really intriguing player in this game, as his price is still very low across DraftKings and FanDuel, and he is coming off one of his biggest games of the season where he had 34.8 FanDuel points. He has gone over 22 in three of his last four games. Bazemore is likely to go against J.R. Smith, who is the one weak spot on this Cleveland Cavaliers defense, and should be relied upon as we saw last game as he shot the ball 12 times. Bazemore also has been proficient stealing the ball this season averaging 2.2 steals per game which is a tremendous benefit to his expected production.
Top Plays- Kent Bazemore,
Secondary Play-Dwight Howard (GPP), Paul Millsap, Thabo Sefolosha, Dennis Schroder
Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected Lineup
PG- Kyrie Irving
SG- J.R. Smith
SF- LeBron James
PF- Kevin Love
C- Tristan Thompson
The Cavaliers see a very slight pace increase in this game as the Hawks are 7th in the NBA this season in terms of pace. Defensively the Hawks can be exploited through the point guard as they have allowed the most points to opposing point guards so far this season as Dennis Schroder has been an awful defensive player. This presents a terrific opportunity for Irving who is coming off his worst game of the season against Philadelphia and is going to be looking to rebound from that performance.
LeBron is always in play and is largely matchup proof. Sefolosha throughout his career has been known as a defensive player, but LeBron is still the premiere option on this DFS slate at the small forward position as the position is rather weak. The problem with LeBron is that during the regular season he does not show that passion and fire that we see during the playoffs where he has those 40+ point double-doubles. LeBron is more of a cash game play today than a GPP, as his floor is the highest on this slate at any position, but his scoring has been down compared to his career average as he is averaging just 22.8 points per game.
Kevin Love draws a tough matchup against Paul Millsap, but Love is the type of player who if Millsap gives him room to help defend LeBron could hit a number of threes very quickly and have a great game. He is more of a GPP play only in this one as the matchup is difficult and you do not get enough of a discount on the player.
Top Plays- Kyrie Irving, LeBron James
Secondary Options- Kevin Love
TIMBERWOLVES AT NETS
Vegas Line: Min -4
Total- 207.5
Timberwolves
Projected Lineup
PG- Kris Dunn
SG- Zach LaVine
SF- Andrew Wiggins
PF- Gorgui Dieng
C- Karl-Anthony Towns
The Timberwolves are in a great spot in this game, as the Brooklyn Nets so far this season are one of the teams that you want to pick on for DFS. The Timberwolves rank in the bottom 10 against all five starting positions, and the Timberwolves see a big up-tempo bump in pace as the Nets are 5th in pace so far this season. All five starters are in play tonight for the Timberwolves, but our favorite play is Andrew Wiggins who is coming off his worst performance of the year where he had just 13.1 FanDuel points, but prior to this was averaging 30.8 FanDuel points per game. Throw out his last performance as he was defended by Andre Roberson who is quickly becoming one of the best defensive players in the NBA.
Karl-Anthony Towns is in a tremendous spot going up against Brook Lopez who does not have the athleticism to keep up with the 20-year-old Towns. Towns has been incredibly consistent having gone for over 30 fantasy points in each of his first five games this season. He is quickly turning into one of the best centers in the league, and while he may be a better GPP play than cash game as Cousins is the premiere center on this slate, he is a great play at a slightly less price.
Top Plays- Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins
Secondary Plays- Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn, Gorgui Dieng
Brooklyn Nets
Projected Lineup
PG- Isaiah Whitehead
SG- Bojan Bogdanovic
SF- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
PF- Trevor Booker
C- Brook Lopez
Sean Kilpatrick’s price just does not increase. Whether it is because he is not a starter, or the sample size is not big enough we are not sure, but we are not going to question it. Kilpatrick has been the only consistent scorer on the Nets, and it is surprising that he is not starting over Bojan at this point. Kilpatrick when he is on the floor, is seeing a usage rate of 26, which is above the 25 threshold that we typically like to see from players. Kilpatrick has gone over 20 FanDuel points in five of his six games so far this season and since Jeremy Lin has been out has gone for 47 and 34 FanDuel points. He is one of the premiere plays on this slate.
Trevor Booker is interesting, as while there is nothing flashy about the player, he is a gritty player who scraps for rebounds. The matchup is not a great one, so he is likely a GPP flyer play only as Gorgui Dieng is a similar style and having two defensive players focused on rebounds going up against each other may limit both of their upside.
Top Plays- Sean Kilpatrick
Secondary Plays- Trevor Booker
NUGGETS AT GRIZZLIES
Vegas Line: Mem -3
Total- 200.5
Denver Nuggets
Projected Lineup
PG- Emmanuel Mudiay
SG- Gary Harris
SF- Danilo Gallinari
PF- Nikola Jokic
C- Jusuf Nurkic
Denver is in a tough matchup in this slate and this is likely a full out avoid situation. They are facing a Memphis team that is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and this is a major pace downgrade for the Nuggets. If Mike Conley sits, Emmanuel Mudiay becomes interesting, but if Conley plays, it is hard to trust as Conley is one of the best defensive players in the NBA.
Top Plays- None
Secondary Plays- Emmanuel Mudiay (If Conley sits)
Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Lineup
PG- Mike Conley
SG- Tony Allen
SF- Chandler Parsons
PF- JaMychal Green
C- Marc Gasol
Memphis sees a tremendous increase in pace in this game as so far this season Denver is 4th in the pace category while Memphis is 24th, which is the type of disparity that we like to see when evaluating whether to start a team that is a slower paced team. Mike Conley is questionable for this game and if he were to miss this game Andrew Harrison or Wade Baldwin quickly become one of the best punt plays on the day as Denver has allowed the second most FanDuel points to opposing point guards this season. JaMychal Green is interesting, but he is very difficult to trust as the matchup is tremendous with Denver allowing the second most FanDuel points to opposing power forwards, but Green has largely been sporadic having 32.2, 5.5, and 18.6 FanDuel points in his last three games.
Top Plays- Mike Conley/Andrew Harrison
Secondary Play- JaMychal Green, Marc Gasol
SUNS AT TRAIL BLAZERS
Vegas Line: POR -7
Total- 219
Phoenix Suns
Projected Lineup
PG- Eric Bledsoe
SG- Devin Booker
SF- T.J. Warren
PF- Marquese Chriss
C- Alex Len
EDIT: Marquese Chriss will start for Jared Dudley now and going forward. The 2016 #8 overall pick should see a lot of time for the team to make this commitment to their youth. Chriss has a ton of talent and is minimum salary and makes for a great play in all formats.
This game is expected to be a shootout and one that favors players from both teams. Devin Booker has been absolutely on fire over the course of the last two games averaging 38.5 points per game. He draws an average matchup against C.J. McCollum, but the Suns are going to look to ride the hot hand with Booker and keep using him. His price has not risen to a point where it is prohibitive to use him and he is one of the top plays on tonight’s slate due to his upside. He did struggle a little bit in his last time out against Portland as he had only 15 points 3 rebounds and 2 assists, but he should have added confidence to go out and outperform those numbers.
As great as Booker has been, T.J. Warren has been more consistent this season. Warren’s price is starting to rise to a point where he is no longer a plug and play, but he is a terrific cash game play as he is averaging 35.5 minutes and 21.3 points per game. Warren has had 25+ FanDuel points in every game this season except for one where he only had 22.3, but he has gone over 30 points in five of his seven games this season. This is tremendous consistency that we look for in our cash game lineups and he makes for an excellent cash game play again tonight. Last time out against Portland he went for 41.4 FanDuel points and while it is an average matchup against Maurice Harkless, Warren has shown that he can take advantage of it.
Top Plays: Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Marquese Chriss
Secondary Options: Eric Bledsoe
Phoenix Trail Blazers
Projected Lineup
PG- Damian Lillard
SG- C.J. McCollum
SF- Maurice Harkless
PF- Al-Farouq Aminu
C- Mason Plumlee
On these smaller slates, there is always one game that you want to target and this is it. This is a premiere matchup for Damian Lillard as Eric Bledsoe so far this season has allowed the second most FanDuel points to opposing point guards. Lillard is off to a career year so far this season as he is averaging 32 points per game and doing more in the assist/rebound categories as well averaging 5.7 rebounds and 4.2 assists. He is by far the premiere point guard on this slate and should be a strong consideration for you tonight in both your cash and GPP lineups as this has all the makings of a big night for him.
C.J. McCollum is in a tough matchup going up against Devin Booker, but it is still a good matchup none the less as it should be an up-tempo game and one of if not the highest scoring game of the slate. McCollum is a boom or bust type player as when he starts off poorly shooting he takes a back seat in this offense and lets his teammates do most of the scoring. However, when he has nights like his last game out against Memphis where he scored 37 points he can carry your lineup. Stacking both Lillard and McCollum is not a bad cash game or GPP strategy as together they should carry a majority of the Trail Blazers scoring, but all of the Trail Blazers are in play tonight.
One key thing to note is that when the Suns were down 10 last game they fouled for about 90 seconds straight, which gave their opponents easy fantasy points shooting free throws.
Top Plays: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum
Secondary Plays: Al-Farouq Aminu, Maurice Harkless, Mason Plumlee
MAVERICKS AT LAKERS
Vegas Line: LA -4
Total- 204.5
Dallas Mavericks
Projected Lineup
PG- J.J. Barea
SG- Wesley Matthews
SF- Harrison Barnes
PF- TBD
C- Andrew Bogut
Dallas sees an uptick in pace here as Los Angeles has been the third fastest team so far to start the season. They are likely to be without their Deron Williams and Dirk Nowitzki both who are recovering from injury. Harrison Barnes has been on a role recently with Williams and Nowitzki out and showing signs that he was worth the maximum contract that the team gave to him. He played all 48 minutes in the team’s last game. One key thing to note about that game was that it was a very slow paced game with a score of 86-75, so it is unlikely that Barnes will see a similar minutes total, but his upside is one of the highest in his price range. He is almost a must start on FanDuel as his price is simply too low for his minutes/usage rate that he will see in this game.
If Deron Williams is out, and all signs are pointing towards that he will miss this game, J.J. Barea becomes a great cheap point guard to put into your lineup. He saw 46 minutes in his last game against Milwaukee and is averaging 32.6 minutes on the season. His price is starting to creep up there especially on FanDuel, but he has tremendous upside in this game.
Top Plays: Harrison Barnes, J.J. Barea
Secondary Options: None
Los Angeles Lakers
Projected Lineup
PG- D’Angelo Russell
SG- Nick Young
SF- Luol Deng
PF- Julius Randle
C- Timofey Mozgov
From a real-life basketball perspective, this Lakers team is a ton of fun to watch. From a fantasy perspective, they are hard to figure out as their production seems to change every night. The one constant is that D’Angelo Russell is going to see the most usage on this team as he is currently averaging 28.7 which is a borderline elite usage rate as the second-year player looks to continue to develop his skillset. As far as the matchup, the Mavericks are a very good defensive team and will be a down-tempo game for the Lakers. The Mavericks so far this season have been great against Small Forwards and Power Forwards, and have struggled against guards and Centers. Timofey Mozgov is not seeing enough productive minutes to trust, which leaves us the guard play. Russell is our favorite, but both Jordan Clarkson and Nick Young are in play for GPP’s as their price is low enough that if either one of them gets hot they can light up the scoreboard. Both are inconsistent and do not do much from an assist or rebound perspective, but the team relies on one of the two to score it is just a matter of picking which one. If we had to choose, it would likely be Clarkson, as even though he is not the starter, with J.J. Barea moving to the starting lineup for Dallas, this means that Clarkson will get to see Seth Curry who is not a good defensive player.
Brandon Ingram is an elite punt play on DraftKings as his minutes continue to increase and has seen tremendous growth recently.
Top Plays: D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram (DraftKings)
Secondary Options: Jordan Clarkson (GPP), Nick Young (GPP)
PELICANS AT KINGS
Vegas Line: SAC -6
Total- 203
New Orleans Pelicans
Projected Lineup
PG- Tim Frazier
SG- E’Twaun Moore
SF- Solomon Hill
PF- Anthony Davis
C- Omer Asik
The Pelicans are coming off a back to back game after playing a fast-paced up-tempo game against the Warriors last night. Anthony Davis is traditionally a guy who is not bothered by a back to back situation as he averaged 37.7 minutes in the second half of back to backs last year and had double-doubles in 70% of those games compared to just 59% of his total games. However, there are going to be a lot of people scared off by Davis tonight as the entire team struggled in their first back to back of the season against Memphis and the talk of Davis being soft started again. Davis is likely to split time between the power forward and center position and will see a lot of DeMarcus Cousins tonight. Davis has performed very well in the last three games against Cousins and the Kings averaging 27.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, 1 block and 2 steals per game. Davis is one of the premiere options on the slate, but at his price, he is more of a GPP play than a cash game play primarily due to the other options.
Tim Frazier returned with a solid performance last night with a double-double and is going up against the returning point guard in Darren Collison for the Kings. While Collison is a good defender, Frazier is a player who can get hot shooting but is still a better GPP play than a cash game play in this slate primarily due to the inconsistency in minutes. Alvin Gentry is trying desperately to right this 0-7 ship and is going to play whoever gives him the best opportunity to win. This also puts Langston Galloway in play for GPP’s, as he is still near site minimum on most sites, and even though he had a poor game last time out, he was averaging 30 minutes per game prior to this. He makes for a nice punt play especially if you believe Frazier will regress back to struggling as the minutes would go straight to Galloway.
Top Plays: None
Secondary Options: Tim Frazier, Anthony Davis, Langston Galloway
Sacramento Kings
Projected Lineup
PG- Darren Collison
SG- Arron Afflalo
SF- Rudy Gay
PF- DeMarcus Cousins
C- Kosta Koufos
Looking at the center options on this slate and they are not great. Center is one of those positions that you are going to want to spend up at tonight as the top two options are the clear-cut two best options. DeMarcus Cousins absolutely dominated the Pelicans last season as he averaged 29.5 points, 12.5 rebounds 4 assists, 2 blocks, and two steals. He also had a 40 point, 16 rebound performance back in March. He is a player who plays with a lot of emotion and appears to embrace the matchup against Anthony Davis. Cousins is also a historical home/road split player as he averaged 29.4 points, at home compared to just 24.3 points on the road. Both of these things line up for him to have a very strong performance in this game tonight.
The Kings return Darren Collison from an eight-game suspension, and the matchup is a good one going up against Tim Frazier who allowed Steph Curry last night to have his biggest game of the early season. Collison makes for a better GPP play than a cash game play as we do not know how many minutes he is going to be able to handle as he only saw 20.2 minutes per game in the preseason. With Ty Lawson still seeing a large number of minutes, this is a position where it is hard to trust Collison in cash games, but if he gets 30 minutes could see a big role with upside that is higher than a lot of players in his price range.
Top Plays: DeMarcus Cousins
Secondary Options: Darren Collison, Rudy Gay
