Timberwolves at Thunder
Vegas Line: OKC -6
Total- 206
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Projected Lineup
PG – Kris Dunn ($4,900 FD)
SG – Zach LaVine ($6,000 FD)
SF – Andrew Wiggins ($6,300 FD)
PF – Gorgui Dieng ($6,100 FD)
C – Karl Anthony Towns ($8,900 FD)
The Timberwolves benefit from a major pace-up, which is great news for their DFS options. Oddly though, I’m not totally on board with Karl-Anthony Towns today. He was utterly dominant Thursday; his 32 points, 14 rebounds, and 2 blocks tilted a lot of contests that had soured on him. And he’s priced right down the center of his seasonal DFS average, but that’s bloated: he’s now brought cash value just the once. At this salary, he’d need to approach his ceiling against a strong defender in Steven Adams. He’s a great GPP play, as few players are more capable of hitting their ceilings than the mega-gifted Towns, but I won’t be paying this much for him. The real value is in Dieng, who had been producing more than a fantasy point per minute before Thursday’s oddball dud. He’s an elite jump shooter and rebounder, and he chimes in with gobs of peripheral stats as well. Dieng is one of the stronger plays on the early-game slate, but be advised his ownership will be high. In the backcourt, Kris Dunn is still far too cheap for his role, even if he’s struggling to score. He’s one of the slate’s better semi-punt plays. Zach LaVine is scoring well, but is priced high at a volatile position. The same goes for Andrew Wiggins, who doesn’t bring the peripheral and defensive numbers we’d like from a score-first guy.
Top Plays
Gorgui Dieng, Kris Dunn
Secondary Options
Karl-Anthony Towns
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Projected Lineup
PG- Russell Westbrook ($11,800 FD)
SG- Victor Oladipo ($5,800 FD)
SF- Andre Roberson ($3,800 FD)
PF- Domantas Sabonis ($3,800 FD)
C- Steven Adams ($5,100 FD)
Coming off of two down games – both well over 40 fantasy points, yet below what his salary has demanded – Westbrook should rebound nicely against a very inexperienced backcourt. He’s seen 33+ minutes in 4 of his 5 games and topped 4.5x value in 3 of them. Most importantly, his salary has tapered off from its absurd, lineup-busting levels. It’s not essential that you cram him in, as there are great chalk plays across the board. But you can feel a little more comfortable doing so than we have lately. Steven Adams brings strong salary relief and should see plenty of defensive opportunity guarding the high-usage Towns. More importantly, he’s played 30+ minutes 4 of 5 times and also taken more than 9 shots a game. Victor Oladipo’s salary has plummeted as he’s struggled to do anything but score, but he carries some GPP upside.
Top Plays
Russell Westbrook
Secondary Options
Steven Adams
Wizards at Magic
Vegas Line: ORL -5
Total- 200
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Projected Lineup
PG- Trey Burke ($3,500 FD, $3,100 DK)
SG- Bradley Beal ($5,300 FD, $5,300 DK)
SF- Otto Porter ($5,100 FD, $5,000 DK)
PF- Markieff Morris ($5,500 FD, $5,500 DK)
C- Marcin Gortat ($5,800 FD, $6,000 DK)
Gortat is a fine cash play; he’s enjoyed three straight double-doubles and has yet to play fewer than 31 minutes. That season-low came last night, so there’s a strong chance he’s fully deployed tonight. I prefer him a bit to Beal, who should dominate usage tonight but will have to muster solid efficiency with the odds against him. He’s played 40, 39, and 39 minutes in the last 3 games, shooting at a below-average rate and failing to add many side stats in the process. Still, he’s priced far, far too low and would never cost so little if not for today’s news on Wall. Beal shouldn’t have much trouble hitting cash value, but his ceiling isn’t as rosy as it may seem. Beyond that, there’s no one deserving of consideration in cash play. That’s because John Wall’s Saturday replacement, Satoransky, doesn’t bring a very attractive floor to the table. He’ll share time with Trey Burke – who’s struggling mightily and not an option in any format – and neither projects well tonight. Morris has posted two fantastic games and two clunkers, and his overall role is voluminous but hard to project for big value. It’s also fair to wonder if he’ll see some rest soon after big minutes to open the year. Porter plays a ton and has shot well, but he’s too hit-or-miss for my tastes and lacks great upside for GPPs.
Top Plays
Marcin Gortat
Secondary Options
Bradley Beal, Tomas Satoransky (GPP-only)
ORLANDO MAGIC
Projected Lineup
PG- Elfrid Payton ($6,100 FD, $6,200 DK)
SG- Evan Fournier ($6,000 FD, $6,100 DK)
SF- Aaron Gordon ($5,900 FD, $5,800 DK)
PF- Serge Ibaka ($5,500 FD, $5,600 DK)
C- Nikola Vucevic ($7,500 FD, $6,300 DK)
Fournier is seeing wild minutes (36 or more in 4 of 5 games) and scoring very well. So well, in fact, that it’s fair to call him a cash value near-lock even without great peripheral numbers. DFS prices aren’t yet respecting his scoring ability much; he shouldn’t come cheaper than Dwyane Wade, but he does. Gordon’s profile is one of a GPP option, as he’s not churning out many real-life points. But he’s in cash consideration because his salary isn’t really budging, despite a theoretically rising floor. Gordon adds rebounds and defensive numbers pretty consistently (6.0 boards and 2.2 steals per game), and his offensive usage has tons of room to grow. Vucevic has been fairly consistent and a nightly double-double threat, with nine or more rebounds in all five games. But he’s also been held below 11 points in 3 of them. He makes for a fair GPP stab, but just isn’t usable in cash games.
Top Plays
Evan Fournier
Secondary Options
Aaron Gordon
Cavaliers at 76ers
Vegas Line: Cle -13.5
Total- 207.5
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Projected Lineup
PG- Kyrie Irving ($7,800 FD, $7,600 DK)
SG- J.R Smith ($4,300 FD, $4,300 DK)
SF- LeBron James ($9,700 FD, $9,700 DK)
PF- Kevin Love ($7,500 FD, $7,400 DK)
C- Tristan Thompson ($4,700 FD, $4,900 DK)
James is still fantastic, but he’s not the easiest high-dollar guy to trust in cash lineups. Worries over early-season rest have been put to bed; he’s seen 36+ minutes in every game but one. But his usage rate has fallen to 30th (from 7th last year), so he’s only topped 23 points once thus far. And he hasn’t been providing the side stats (just 0.4 blocks and 0.4 steals per game) to boost that floor. He’s always an elite GPP play, but there are more consistent and predictable ways to spend up today. Irving has taken over the playmaker role and mostly excelled, but also suffers from a shaky floor for such a salary. His assists are spotty, and he’s failed to produce a steal in four of five games. Like James, though, he brings strong tournament value against the Sixers’ weak defense. The top cash play here is Love, who has approached or reached cash value consistently all year and should only produce more as his rebounding comes more in line with his history. He’s scoring so consistently at the moment that he seems a hair underpriced. Thompson has struggled to score, with 4 points or fewer in 3 of 5 games. But he carries some GPP appeal, having grabbed 10+ rebounds in each of his last 4 games. His salary is quite cheap for a guy with that kind of plausible double-double ability
Top Plays
Kevin Love
Secondary Options
LeBron James
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Projected Lineup
PG- Sergio Rodriguez ($5,100 FD, $5,300 DK)
SG- Gerald Henderson ($4,000 FD, $3,500 DK)
SF- Robert Covington ($4,400 FD, $4,500 DK)
PF- Dario Saric ($4,100 FD, $4,700 DK)
C- Joel Embiid ($4,800 FD, $5,600 DK)
Rodriguez is gobbling up most of the point guard minutes, and he’s producing, earning well beyond cash value more often than not. DFS pricing isn’t impressed, though, and Rodriguez still comes so cheaply that even subpar PG numbers will hold value in your lineup. Against the defense of Irving, who has been scorched by the last two PGs he’s faced, Rodriguez looks like a value lock. Embiid, on the other hand, is GPP-only but potential dynamite there. Some sites still price him as a high-upside backup, which is fair considering his very public minutes cap. But few guys thus far have provided more bang for their time than Embiid – he’s third league-wide in usage and producing nearly 1.5 fantasy points per minute. An awesome scorer and shot blocker who’s flashed great rebounding, Embiid makes for an ideal – yet very popular – play in any tournament. As his playing time rises, he’ll see more and more opportunity, and you might not want to be caught without on his first 30-minute night.
Top Plays
Sergio Rodriguez
Secondary Options
Joel Embiid (GPP-only)
Nuggets at Pistons
Vegas Line: Det -4.5
Total- 202.5
DENVER NUGGETS
Projected Lineup
PG- Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,900 FD, $6,000 DK)
SG- Jamal Murray ($3,500 FD, $3,500 DK)
SF- Danilo Gallinari ($6,500 FD, $5,900 DK)
PF- Nikola Jokic ($5,700 FD, $6,100 DK)
C- Jusuf Nurkic ($6,000 FD, $6,500 DK)
This isn’t the Nuggets’ best matchup. They’ve scored well against other high-paced teams, but in their last two games, slower opponents have held them close to the league average. And with both Will Barton (out, ankle) and Gary Harris (doubtful, groin) likely shelved, there’s not much pace-independent value here. Their safest play, Nurkic, has been lights-out but has the salary to prove it. It’s crept up consistently during his hot start, and while he’s not yet overpriced, he’s priced at or a little above his median output. It’s a lot to pay for a guy with this much competition for minutes. The strongest play for value is Mudiay, who’s brought home fairly easy 5x value in three straight games. He’s played 33+ minutes every night since the opener and subsidized his iffy shooting with volume and side stats. But even his appeal is sapped some by his rising salary and the Pistons’ strong point guard defense.
Top Plays
None
Secondary Options
Jusuf Nurkic, Emmanuel Mudiay
DETROIT PISTONS
Projected Lineup
PG- Ish Smith ($5,800 FD, $5,200 DK)
SG- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,800 FD, $4,900 DK)
SF- Marcus Morris ($6,100 FD, $5,700 DK)
PF- Tobias Harris ($6,400 FD, $6,200 DK)
C- Andre Drummond ($8,000 FD, $7,700 DK)
Something isn’t right with Drummond, who isn’t scoring or blocking shots consistently and was benched down the stretch Wednesday. But with his salary depressing, he brings outstanding GPP appeal against a Nuggets frontcourt that was just ravaged by another high-usage center (Karl-Anthony Towns). A vintage Drummond game, or anything close to it, would easily land 5x value. You definitely want some exposure to him, even if he can’t be trusted in cash games right now. Harris and Morris are reliable options who produce consistently, but both are priced near their ceilings throughout the industry. Morris is at least affordable on some sites, though, and there’s enough upside in this matchup and pace to seek a little GPP exposure. Still, the strongest value in either format comes from Caldwell-Pope. He’s a minutes monster – 34+ in 4 of 5 games after 34.0 over the previous 2 seasons – and has rebounded after a sluggish start. He doesn’t need more than 22-25 fantasy points for cash value on most sites, and he’s blown past that in three straight games. Backup forward Jon Leuer is another name to watch as a strong punt in either format. He’s seen 26+ minutes in 4 of 5 games and has produced enough across-the-board numbers to bring home universal 5x value in 3 of them.
Top Plays
None
Secondary Options
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Andre Drummond (GPP-preferred), Jon Leuer
Bulls At Pacers
Vegas Line: IND -3
Total- 212
CHICAGO BULLS
Projected Lineup
PG- Rajon Rondo ($6,600 FD, $6,400 DK)
SG- Dwyane Wade ($6,700 FD, $6,300 DK)
SF- Jimmy Butler ($7,700 FD, $7,800 DK)
PF- Taj Gibson ($5,700 FD, $5,800 DK)
C- Robin Lopez ($4,700 FD, $4,000 DK)
Wade’s sudden three-pointer barrage looks planned and fluky; I’m expecting it to taper off, and for his scoring to land much closer to the 15-18 range than last night’s 35. But he should stay plenty hot tonight against a high-paced Indiana team that’s allowing the league’s best true shooting percentage (115.4%) on the season. On a road back-to-back, Wade is a low-floor, high-upside GPP play at tonight’s salary. We’ve yet to see Butler truly go off; so far, his 24-point, 7-rebound, 2-steal Opening Night has been his ceiling. It’s nothing to sneeze at, but it does dampen his GPP outlook. Butler’s price is slipping as he’s sharing the ball with more gifted teammates than last year, but he’s not quite cheap enough yet, so I’m not using him anywhere right now. Wade is scoring well, and Butler doesn’t benefit from it by feeding him assists. Nor does Rondo, who has notched five assists or fewer in three straight games. He’s hands-off until he proves some worth to the Bulls offense, which might not happen. Gibson and Nikola Mirotic have shared power forward numbers pretty evenly thus far, but both are fluctuating in reaching cash value. Mirotic is the much stronger play tonight; he could knock down several threes in this matchup.
Top Plays
None
Secondary Options
Dwyane Wade (GPP-preferred), Nikola Mirotic
INDIANA PACERS
Projected Lineup
PG- Jeff Teague ($6,000 FD, $5,800 DK)
SG- Monta Ellis ($5,900 FD, $5,500 DK)
SF- Paul George ($8,800 FD, $8,200 DK)
PF- Thaddeus Young ($5,900 FD, $5,800 DK)
C- Myles Turner ($6,700 FD, $7,100 DK)
They weren’t kidding about pace. Indiana sits tied with Golden State in possessions per game; they’re flying up and down the court and occasionally doing awesome, explosive things in the process. I like their chances tonight against a Bulls team that’s really slipping defensively and just played last night. The run-and-gun Pacers seem like a near-lock to approach 110 points, so they deserve our attention. That appeal starts of course with George, who’s a 30-point, 8-rebound, multi-steal threat every night out. He’s priced very high for his shaky floor, but tonight could be one of his best ceiling games of the young season. Still, I like the value elsewhere – especially in C.J. Miles as a high-impact punt play. He’s not starting, but has seen increased minutes with Rodney Stuckey out and has reached universal 6x value in every game since the opener. Most of that has come from his awesome shooting (sixth in the league in true shooting rate), and he’s scored 15+ real-life points in 3 of his last 4. He’s volatile, but set up for success tonight. The same is true of Young, whose minutes have fluctuated but has produced with decent consistency. His last outing was a little fluky – his only game without an assist, plus lowered numbers elsewhere in a surprise blowout loss. If the needle swings the other way tonight and the Pacers take control, Young could pay off handsomely.
Top Plays
None
Secondary Options
C.J. Miles, Paul George (GPP-preferred), Thaddeus Young
Rockets at Hawks
Vegas Line: ATL -3
Total- 215.5
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Projected Lineup
PG- James Harden ($11,700 FD, $11,600 DK)
SG- Eric Gordon ($5,200 FD, $5,600 DK)
SF- Trevor Ariza ($5,000 FD, $5,400 DK)
PF- Ryan Anderson ($5,200 FD, $5,600 DK)
C- Clint Capela ($4,400 FD, $5,300 DK)
Surprisingly, this will be a pace-up game for Harden. That’s a scary thought, considering he’s already leading the NBA in efficiency by a healthy margin. The Hawks present the league’s second-most efficient defense, but Harden tends to laugh at those storylines. He produced well last year in two games against Atlanta’s defense (which also ranked second), and in fact, he averaged 24+ real-life points against 7 of the league’s top-10 defenses. As the Rockets’ de facto point guard, his floor is superbly strong (currently leading the league in assists), and he’s tonight’s strongest high-dollar must-play. Anderson and Gordon bring modest GPP appeal; Atlanta could come in tired one night after a road game. I doubt that, as their starters didn’t play too heavily. Still, Bradley Beal put on a scoring clinic against them (28 points, 13 of 14 on free throws) and Gordon can get to the line himself at times.
Top Plays
James Harden
Secondary Options
None
ATLANTA HAWKS
Projected Lineup
Projected Lineup
PG- Dennis Schroder ($5,900 FD, $6,200 DK)
SG- Kyle Korver ($3,700 FD, $4,000 DK)
SF- Kent Bazemore ($4,600 FD, $5,000 DK)
PF- Paul Millsap ($8,300 FD, $7,900 DK)
C- Dwight Howard ($8,300 FD, $8,000 DK)
It’s surprising I’m not recommending more all-in plays against Houston, who has been very high-paced and defensively weak in recent memory. But their style has shifted thus far, and Atlanta may struggle to turn those tables on the second leg of a back-to-back. Howard has been an absolute rock star, with three straight double-doubles and 18+ real-life points in each one. But his salary has ballooned, so his cash appeal falls off just a little. He’s been awfully consistent, but we know of Howard’s foibles and the night-to-night concern he can bring to owners. Factor in the possibilities of foul trouble (four or more in four straight games), poor or limited offensive nights, and his free throw struggles, and you’ll see there are safer options for this cost than Howard. Millsap will eventually get back on track. He’s typically a multi-category stud who often finds himself underpriced. That’s not the case at the moment, as he’s priced among the second tier of options despite having only hit cash value twice. I won’t be using him in any cash contests, but there’s GPP appeal against a Houston defense that’s struggled against power forwards. Their ranking against the position is high, but it stems from having missed Dirk Nowitzki in two Dallas games. Both Kevin Love and Julius Randle were both mega-efficient against them in limited minutes, and Millsap is probably a better player than either.
Top Plays
None
Secondary Options
Dwight Howard, Paul Millsap (GPP-preferred)
Kings at Bucks
Vegas Line: Mil -1.5
Total- 204.5
SACRAMENTO KINGS
Projected Lineup
PG- Ty Lawson ($4,900 FD, $5,000 DK)
SG- Arron Afflalo ($3,600 FD, $3,500 DK)
SF- Matt Barnes/Omri Casspi
PF- DeMarcus Cousins ($8,300 FD, $7,900 DK)
C- Kosta Koufos ($8,300 FD, $8,000 DK)
Bucks games have really punched up a notch this year, and 4 of their 5 opponents have scored 107 points or more. Cousins costs a small fortune on some sites and has been hit-or-miss at reaching value thus far, and I prefer to spend up on James Harden tonight. Still, I won’t try to talk you out of him. His outlook is strong: the Bucks rank in the bottom 10 in overall defensive efficiency and opponent paint points, so a rested Cousins should have his way offensively. The pace-up helps, too; after all, Andre Drummond’s only dominant performance so far has been his 20-point, 23-rebound, 3-block line against the Bucks last week. Cousins thoroughly dominates the Kings offense (a 35.1 usage rate, third in the league) and should cruise to value, if only on FanDuel. Rudy Gay is doubtful for tonight, and Barnes will likely start and benefit most statistically. He provides diverse numbers up and down the stat sheet, but will only pay off if his threes are falling. That makes him a GPP stab at salary relief; there’s no guarantee he’ll score much or even see more than 20-22 minutes. Omri Casspi might actually be a better punt. Lawson has done some nice things and comes cheaply on some sites, but is a GPP-only option and not a very strong one.
Top Plays
DeMarcus Cousins
Secondary Options
Matt Barnes (GPP-preferred), Omri Casspi (GPP-only)
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Projected Lineup
PG- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,900 FD, $9,500 DK)
SG- Matthew Dellavadova ($4,600 FD, $4,900 DK)
SF- Tony Snell ($3,800 FD, $3,900 DK)
PF- Jabari Parker ($6,000 FD, $5,900 DK)
C- Miles Plumlee ($3,500 FD, $3,000 DK)
Much like the Rockets, Dave Joerger’s new-look Kings have seen a huge dip in pace in the early going. Last year, they were a go-to target for high-flying, high-opportunity matchups, but that’s tapered off noticeably. Of course, that’s no concern for Anteokounmpo, who’s brought home universal cash value in every game thus far. In lower-paced matchups with the Pistons and Hornets, he averaged 24.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 6.0 free throws – almost identical to his overall numbers. Sadly, his salary absolutely skyrockets across the industry tonight, a night in which both Cousins and James Harden carry strong outlooks for their salaries. You can feel fairly confident in playing Anteokounmpo anywhere, but he probably fits better as a GPP pivot from Cousins’ high ownership. By the way, that slurping sound you hear is rookie Malcolm Brogdon siphoning more and more opportunity away from the rest of the team’s weak backcourt. Brogdon has rotated in for 24 minutes in each of the last 2 games, and he’s absolutely excelled, with very impressive totals in scoring, assists, and steals. DFS pricing has yet to catch up with him, so he’s one of the better punt plays of the entire slate. His success isn’t a nightly guarantee, but he’ll be very chalky and there’s just so much value; he’ll pay off just by notching around 15 minutes of play. Monroe finally came alive Thursday for the first time since the opener, with 16 points, 16 rebounds, and 6 assists against the Pacers. But that came in a pace-up game in which he saw 26 minutes, his highest count in four games. The small upward bump in salary makes him a GPP target only.
Top Plays
Giannis Anteokounmpo (GPP-preferred), Malcolm Brogdon
Secondary Options
Greg Monroe (GPP-only)
Clippers at Spurs
Vegas Line: SAN -4
Total- 193.5
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Projected Lineup
PG- Chris Paul ($8,800 FD, $8,100 DK)
SG- J.J. Redick ($4,000 FD, $3,900 DK)
SF- Luc Mbah a Moute ($3,500 FD, $3,000 DK)
PF- Blake Griffin ($8,700 FD, $7,500 DK)
C- DeAndre Jordan ($7,000 FD, $6,600 DK)
The Clippers have played at a higher pace this year than most, but this matchup is still something of an offense-killer. Only 2 of the Spurs’ 6 opponents have topped 94 points: the Warriors, who lost a blowout and landed well below their average, and the Jazz, who were then extinguished in last night’s rematch. Rested or not, the Spurs are hard to hang scoring on. That’s why I’m mostly avoiding Clippers today; there are plenty of good matchups to be mined across the slate. If pressed, I could get on board with some shares of Paul in a GPP portfolio. He’s churning out points, rebounds, assists, and steals at a fairly consistent level for his salary, and there’s a decent chance he survives the Spurs speed bump to hold value. I just don’t see the benefit of rostering any of these guys in cash games. Griffin and Jordan are all ceiling, with maddening floors against Gregg Popovich’s gang.
Top Plays
None
Secondary Options
Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan (GPP-only)
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Projected Lineup
PG- Patty Mills ($4,500 FD, $4,300 DK)
SG- Jonathon Simmions ($3,600 FD, $3,800 DK)
SF- Kawhi Leonard ($8,500 FD, $8,800 DK)
PF- LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,100 FD, $6,900 DK)
C- Pau Gasol ($6,300 FD, $5,600 DK)
They still play slower than worms, and they’re still mega-efficient. But on the new-look Spurs, save for Leonard, it’s relatively hard to tell where the big nights will come from. Usually consistent names like Aldridge and Gasol are underperforming, and the team’s deep bench makes for a frustrating GPP mystery. Aldridge may or may not excel on any given night, but I’m not going to test it against a Clippers defense that’s held up reasonably against some good frontcourts. We’ll also see value from some combination of Mills, Manu Ginobili, Jonathan Simmons, David Lee, and Kyle Anderson, but it’s hard to tell what Popovich has in store at tip-off, let alone hours before. Any Spurs investment I make tonight will probably be minimal and focused around Mills, who’s starting and shooting great and will be the chalkiest Spur in DFS-land. All told, though, these matchups are ideal for deep, multi-entry GPPs, where you want to go contrarian and take multiple stabs at the possibility of a Spurs rout. But alas, none of them are cash-suitable tonight.
Top Plays
Kawhi Leonard
Secondary Options
Patty Mills, LaMarcus Aldridge (GPP-preferred)
