NBA Deep Dive November 2nd

Photo: USA Today Sports

Raptors At Wizards

Vegas Line: TOR -1
Total- 203

Toronto Raptors

DeMar Derozan had his third straight 30+ point game as he is now averaging 35 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. His price just has not reached a point where you should stop playing him as he is shooting the ball 26 times per game. Derozan gets to go up against Bradley Beal who is a subpar defender and has allowed the 7^th most points to SG this season. Derozan’s teammate Kyle Lowry draws the tougher matchup of the two as he goes up against John Wall who so far this season has allowed the least amount of fantasy points to opposing point guards. Lowry is coming off a monster performance where he had 29 points, 7 assists and 5 assists against Denver on Monday. Looking at Lowry’s past performances against Wall, they really have been all over the place, as Lowry averaged 36.3 FanDuel points last season to Washington when his season average was 38.3. Lowry still makes for a good cash game play, as his price is low enough and he fills up enough categories that he should be able to get to the 35 point range which is where you need him to be, but in GPP’s the matchup is prohibitive.

Projected Lineup
PG- Kyle Lowry ($7,400 FD, $7,600 DK)
SG- DeMar Derozan ($8,100 FD, $7,800 DK)
SF- DeMarre Carroll ($4,600 FD, $4,600 DK)
PF- Pascal Siakam ($3,700 FD, $3,200 DK)
C- Jonas Valanciunas ($6,400 FD, $6,800 DK)

Top Plays- DeMar Derozan, Kyle Lowry (Cash)

Secondary Plays- DeMarre Carroll, Kyle Lowry (GPP)

Washington Wizards

Projected Lineup
PG- John Wall ($8,700 FD, $8,200 DK)
SG- Bradley Beal ($5,300 FD, $5,400 DK)
SF- Otto Porter ($4,900 FD, $4,500 DK)
PF- Markieff Morris ($5,800 FD, $5,800 DK)
C- Marcin Gortat ($5,900 FD, $5,600 DK)

Kyle Lowry is largely regarded as one of the elite defenders in the NBA, and should be able to give John Wall all he can handle as well has had a rough start shooting the ball to begin his season. Wall is just shooting 32.4% from the field so far this season and most of his fantasy production has been through the assist, which the problem with the assists tonight is that Bradley Beal goes up against the best SG defender in the NBA in DeMar Derozan. This really is not a good matchup for Washington, and it is a little bit surprising that Vegas thinks that this will only be a one point game as Toronto went 4-0 against Washington last season. All of these games were slow paced and none of them went over 200 total points. Expect Washington to struggle again in this one and on a 10 game slate there is not a lot of reason you need to look in this direction.

Top Plays-None

Secondary Plays- None

76ers at Hornets

Vegas Line:  CHA -13
Total- 196

Philadelphia 76ers

Projected Lineup
PG- Sergio Rodriguez ($5,100 FD, $4,900 DK)
SG- Gerald Henderson ($3,900 FD, $3,400 DK)
SF- Robert Covington ($4,900 FD, $4,800 DK)
PF- Dario Saric ($3,900 FD, $4,500 DK)
C- Jahlil Okafor ($5,000 FD, $4,900 DK)

This game has the makings of a blowout, as it is the highest spread of the day, and Philadelphia has the lowest implied total on the board. Making matters worse is that Joel Embiid will sit in this one and will be replaced by Jahlil Okafor. Okafor is still on a minutes restriction, and is not in play on this slate. One intriguing play is Sergio Rodriguez who’s price still remains depressed around the industry. Rodriguez so far this season is averaging 12.7 points, 8.3 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game which is close to 30 FanDuel points per game. At $5.1k, he only needs about 25 points to reach value making him a decent cash game play and if this game stays close a GPP play. Robert Covington right now comes in with awful form as he has not scored in his last two games which he played 51 minutes in. This was the player who was consistently putting up 15 points 10 rebound games last year, so the talent is there, it is just when is it going to come out.

Top Plays- Sergio Rodriguez (cash)

Secondary Plays- Sergio Rodriguez (GPP)

Charlotte Hornets

Projected Lineup
PG- Kemba Walker ($8,300 FD, $7,500 DK)
SG- Nicolas Batum ($6,400 FD, $6,600 DK)
SF- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($5,500 FD, $5,300 DK)
PF- Marvin Williams ($5,300 FD, $5,000 DK)
C- Cody Zeller ($4,800 FD, $4,300 DK)

It is really hard to trust players in a game where it is projected to be a 13 point game. The 76ers have played significantly better defense so far this season compared to last season. However, with that said, from a GPP perspective we have to consider if Las Vegas gets it wrong and this game is closer than it appears who benefits the most. The short answer is it is likely Kemba Walker and Marvin Williams. Marvin Williams is a double-double threat every time he touches the floor and his minutes are averaging above 30 so far this season which is a great sign. Kemba Walker is off to a career best 23.3 points per game so far this season and while the sample size is small he is turning into a superstar in his age 26 season. He is their primary scorer, but has not been consistently getting rebounds or assists making him hard to pay the price that he is at combined with the blowout potential

Top Plays- 
Secondary Play- Kemba Walkler, Marvin Williams

Pistons at Nets

Vegas Line:  DET -4
Total- 204

Detroit Pistons

Projected Lineup
PG- Ish Smith ($6,000 FD, $5,400 DK)
SG- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,500 FD, $4,600 DK)
SF- Marcus Morris ($5,900 FD, $5,400 DK)
PF- Tobias Harris ($6,200 FD, $6,100 DK)
C- Andre Drummond ($8,000 FD, $8,300 DK)

Top Plays: 

Secondary Plays:

Brooklyn Nets

Projected Lineup
PG- Jeremy Lin ($6,500 FD, $6,700 DK)
SG- Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,300 FD, $4,800 DK)
SF- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($3,600 FD, $3,700 DK)
PF- Trevor Booker ($5,300 FD, $5,000 DK)
C- Brook Lopez ($6,900 FD, $6,400 DK)

Blake Griffin has been absolutely on fire to start this season. He is currently averaging 22.5 points and 11.5 rebounds per game including back to back double doubles. The Suns defensively are one of the worst teams in the league and it will be very difficult for Jared Dudley to stop Blake Griffin and Tyson Chandler will have to stay on DeAndre Jordan making the night very easy for Griffin. Chris Paul is always in consideration and the Suns have struggled against the point guard allowing the second most point to point guards last season. The issue with Paul is that there are a lot of great options at point guard tonight, and we’ve seen inconsistency from Paul to start the season and this game is projected to be a blowout. He is coming off a game where he only had 9 points and 9 assists. He is more of a GPP play than a cash game play as there are only so many options that can be considered at the point guard position, and if we want to spend up at other positions we have to save some money at the point guard. He is a much better play at DraftKings however as his price is significantly lower than it is in on FanDuel.

Top Plays:  Blake Griffin
Secondary Options: Chris Paul, J.J. Redick (GPP)

Rockets at Knicks

Vegas Line:  NY -1
Total- 216

Houston Rockets

Projected Lineup
PG- James Harden ($11,200 FD, $11,200 DK)
SG- Eric Gordon ($5,300 FD, $5,600 DK)
SF- Trevor Ariza ($5,500 FD, $5,400 DK)
PF- Ryan Anderson ($5,500 FD, $5,800 DK)
C- Clint Capela ($4,600 FD, $5,500 DK)

James Harden in his career at Madison Square Garden has averaged 6 more FanDuel points than his career average. Last season in his one appearance he had 26 points, 9 assists, 7 rebounds 2 steals. Playing in New York City has brought some of the most memorable performances in recent NBA history, Harden is doing everything for this Rockets team as we saw last night against Cleveland where he put up 41 points, 15 assists and 7 rebounds. In Mark D’Antoni’s system Harden is becoming one of the premiere plays of any slate and should be considered for your roster tonight. The Knicks have no one to defend him and while Courtney Lee is a good defender, Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose are not, so the Rockets should be able to find matchups for Harden to dominate in this one. The only slight concern is that this is a back to back game which may limit Harden’s minutes a little bit, but this early in the season he should be still good to go.

Top Plays:  James Harden

Secondary Plays: Eric Gordon

New York Knicks

Projected Lineup
PG- Derrick Rose ($5,700 FD, $5,700 DK)
SG- Courtney Lee ($3,700 FD, $3,800 DK)
SF- Carmelo Anthony ($7,500 FD, $7,500 DK)
PF- Kristaps Porzingis ($6,800 FD, $7,200 DK)
C- Joakim Noah ($4,600 FD, $4,900 DK)

We are still waiting for that monster breakout game from Kristaps Porzingis, and this is another great matchup for him going up against Ryan Anderson who is one of the worst in the league at his position. Porzingis should be able to easily use his size and athleticism to dominate this matchup against Anderson. Porzingis so far this season has been ok, but not the double-double or block machine that we saw early last season prior to his injury. He is better suited for a GPP than a cash game play as his upside is tremendous however his floor is 18 points, 6 rebounds 1 assist, which is not going to kill you in cash games but is also not going to help you either.

Top Plays:  Kristaps Porzingis (GPP)

Secondary Plays: Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis (Cash)

Lakers at Hawks

Vegas Line:  ATL -12
Total- 208

Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Lineup
PG- D’Angelo Russell ($6,000 FD, $6,700 DK)
SG- Nick Young ($3,500 FD, $3,700 DK)
SF- Luol Deng ($5,100 FD, $4,600 DK)
PF- Julius Randle ($6,200 FD, $6,300 DK)
C- Larry Nance Jr. ($3,700 FD, $3,100 DK) or Tarik Black ($3,500 FD, $3,000 DK)

Timofey Mozgov has been ruled out for this game due to a potentially broken orbital bone suffered in last night’s game against Indiana. Larry Nance Jr. is expected to see an increase in his place which is a tremendous increase for Nance. Nance had a big game last time out where he saw 30 minutes, but a lot went right for that to happen as Julius Randle fouled out and Timofey Mozgov got injured. With this game expected to be a blowout, we have Nance at 26 minutes in this one which at just $3,700 makes for a great play. Tarik Black will likely start this game for the injured Mozgov, but Black is not a minutes guy, as he has not gone over 24 minutes in two seasons. He did not see a heavy workload in the preseason, and can not be expected to play more than 20-22 minutes tonight.

Top Plays:  Larry Nance Jr.

Secondary Plays: Tarik Black,

Atlanta Hawks

Projected Lineup
PG- Dennis Schroder ($6,500 FD, $6,600 DK)
SG- Kyle Korver ($3,800 FD, $3,900 DK)
SF- Kent Bazemore ($4,500 FD, $4,900 DK)
PF- Paul Millsap ($8,400 FD, $8,000 DK)
C- Dwight Howard ($8,200 FD, $7,600 DK)

Taking players on a team that is 11 point favorites is always a challenging thing to do. Taking players on a team that is an 11 point favorite on a 10 game slate is risky. The matchup for Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap is very good now that Timofey Mozgov is going to miss this game, but the issue is if this game gets out of hand early how many minutes will the two see. The Lakers struggle primarily against the point guard, power forward and center position putting Schroder, Millsap, and Howard all in play for GPP’s in case this game stays close, but for cash there are better options on this slate.

Top Plays:  None

Secondary Plays: Dwight Howard, Paul Millsap, Dennis Schroder

Pelicans At Grizzlies

Vegas Line:  Mem -6
Total- 206

New Orleans Pelicans

Projected Lineup
PG- Tim Frazier ($5,500 FD, $6,200 DK)
SG- E’Twaun Moore ($4,400 FD, $4,000 DK)
SF- Solomon Hill ($3,800 FD, $3,400 DK)
PF- Dante Cunningham ($3,700 FD, $3,000 DK)
C- Anthony Davis ($10,700 FD, $10,900 DK)

Tim Frazier is becoming a plug and play starter in DFS circles until one of two things happens either his price increases or Jrue Holiday returns. He is just seeing too high of a usage rate and too high of production to not start him even if the matchup is not an ideal one against Mike Conley who is a good defender. Anthony Davis is in a great spot here, as neither JaMychal Green nor Marc Gasol can defend the athletic Davis so he should continue to have his monster start to the year. He is one of the premiere options on this slate.

Top Plays:  Anthony Davis, Tim Frazier

Secondary Plays: None

Memphis Grizzlies

The Pelicans have really struggled so far this season defensively particularly against the Center position. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley burned a lot of people last night when they were late scratches after the lineups had locked in a good matchup. The two stars of this team should be well rested after not playing, and should expect to see their regular use of minutes, the good news is that their salaries are not prohibitive, but Gasol is in a better matchup than Conley in this one. The Pelicans have allowed the 4^th most fantasy points to opposing centers this year and Gasol is one of the best centers in the NBA when he is healthy. He should be able to use his size and physicality down low against Davis who is sometimes more focused on offense or getting blocks than he is getting stops.

Projected Lineup
PG- Mike Conley ($6,600 FD, $6,600 DK)
SG- Tony Allen ($4,300 FD, $3,900 DK)
SF- James Ennis ($4,300 FD, $4,700 DK)
PF- JaMychal Green ($5,000 FD, $5,700 DK)
C- Marc Gasol ($6,800 FD, $6,100 DK)

Top Plays:  Marc Gasol

Secondary Plays: Mike Conley

Mavericks at Jazz

Vegas Line:  Utah -4
Total- 189

Dallas Mavericks

Projected Lineup
PG- Deron Williams ($6,200 FD, $5,200 DK)
SG- Wesley Matthews ($4,600 FD, $5,000 DK)
SF- Harrison Barnes ($5,200 FD, $5,600 DK)
PF- Dirk Nowitzki ($7,100 FD, $5,700 DK)
C- Andrew Bogut ($4,200 FD, $4,000 DK)

This game is projected to be the lowest scoring game of the day by a wide margin which makes it largely disinteresting on a 10 game slate. However, there are a number of questions around lineups and injuries that could make some value come to light. At the current moment all players made it through the shoot around this morning, which does not really tell us that much, but be sure to check our breaking news feature to see if any of the players are announced as out prior to lock.

One GPP play for the Mavericks is Deron Williams. The Jazz have really struggled against guards this season as they’re in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to the guard position, and Deron Williams so far this season has been the only consistent player on the Mavericks team. The last two games Williams has had the tough task of guarding James Harden, and now should be able to get back to focusing in on his offensive abilities as we saw in the season opener when he had 25 points and 7 assists. This is likely his upside tonight which would greatly pay off his salary.

Top Plays:  None

Secondary Plays: Deron Williams

Utah Jazz

Projected Lineup
PG- George Hill ($6,200 FD, $5,900 DK)
SG- Rodney Hood ($5,700 FD, $5,800 DK)
SF- Joe Johnson ($5,600 FD, $5,000 DK)
PF- Derrick Favors ($6,800 FD, $6,400 DK)
C- Rudy Gobert ($7,100 FD, $7,100 DK)

The Jazz typically are in play when one of two things occurs. Either one of their big men is out thus creating value for the other one and or Trey Lyles, or they’re playing an uptempo team that is projected to be a high scoring game. Neither one of these is the case tonight, but there are some intriguing plays on the Jazz based on value along. The Mavericks have one weak spot on their defense and it is defending the shooting guard position. They have allowed the third most points to opposing shooting guards so far this season as Wesley Matthews has struggled defensively and they have put Deron Williams on that position at times who is not a great defender. Outside of a game against the Clippers, Hood is averaging 20 points per game and 4.3 rebounds per game. He is heavily dependent on scoring the basketball, so there is some risk here compared to players who fill up multiple categories but it is a good matchup. George Hill is in a similar spot albeit he fills up more categories than Hood.

Top Plays:  George Hill (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays: George Hill, Rodney Hood

Trailblazers at Suns

Vegas Line:  Por -4
Total- 216

Portland Trailblazers

Projected Lineup
PG- Damian Lillard ($9,900 FD, $9,600 DK)
SG- C.J. McCollum ($7,300 FD, $7,200 DK)
SF- Maurice Harkless ($4,800 FD, $4,000 DK)
PF- Al Farouq-Aminu($4,600 FD, $4,400 DK)
C- Mason Plumlee ($4,900 FD, $4,600 DK)

This Portland team continues to live and die by Damian Lillard and the inconsistency of C.J. McCollum. This is a great matchup for Lillard as the Suns have allowed the third most fantasy points to Point Guards in the NBA. The problem inherently is that you have the three best DFS players in the NBA all on this slate, and being able to afford Lillard is a tricky situation. Lillard is a great GPP play, but he does not consistently put up the rebound and assists totals to compare him to Westbrook, Harden or Davis. Mason Plumlee is a decent option at center tonight as he is too cheap and this should be an up and down game where Plumlee should excel.  

Top Plays:  Mason Plumlee

Secondary Plays: Damian Lillard

Phoenix Suns

Projected Lineup
PG- Eric Bledsoe ($7,500 FD, $6,900 DK)
SG- Devin Booker ($5,900 FD, $6,000 DK)
SF- T.J. Warren ($5,500 FD, $5,900 DK)
PF- Jared Dudley ($3,800 FD, $3,500 DK)
C- Tyson Chandler ($4,200 FD, $4,200 DK)

What is T.J. Warren going to have to do to have his price increased by the DFS sites? Warren is averaging 21.3 points and 6 rebounds per game is in another great matchup in this game as it is tied for the highest over/under on the day and should be an up-tempo pace that should help the athletic wing. Devin Booker missed the previous game with an injury and while it appears to play, keep an eye on that situation as Eric Bledsoe would become an elite option if Booker is going to be limited. Lillard at times is not the greatest defender, so this would be a matchup that Bledsoe would be able to exploit, but with Booker in the lineup they’re both secondary options. Brandon Knight played 31 minutes last time out, but was only able to score 18 points with no stats in any other categories except for two turnovers. He just doesn’t do enough outside of scoring to trust him.

Top Plays:  T.J. Warren

Secondary Plays: Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker

THunder At Clippers

Vegas Line:  LAC -7
Total- 209

Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Lineup
PG- Russell Westbrook ($12,000 FD, $12,900 DK)
SG- Victor Oladipo ($7,000 FD, $6,500 DK)
SF- Andre Roberson ($4,200 FD, $4,100 DK)
PF- Domantas Sabonis ($3,900 FD, $3,300 DK)
C- Steven Adams ($5,000 FD, $6,000 DK)

We don’t need to go into too much detail to describe that Russell Westbrook is an elite DFS option every time he touches the court and this slate is no different. In two of his four matchups last season against the Clippers he went for a triple-double and has that upside again tonight. The ultimate question is whether or not you can afford Westbrook in your lineup. On FanDuel he is much easier to get in and should be a lock for your cash games tonight, but on DraftKings, Harden and Davis are better options simply because of the price differential between the players. The ultimate goal of this slate is to get two of the elite three players into your lineup and the lineup is better suited with the savings that you’ll get if you go down to Harden and Davis. Steven Adams has been absolutely tremendous this year as he is averaging 35 minutes per game compared to his career average of 21.7 minutes. DeAndre Jordan is famous for his blocking ability, but he is going to try to block the ball every time Westbrook takes it to the rim allowing some easy scores for Adams as he will be left wide open. He is one of the top plays at center on this slate as he is cheap enough fit into your lineup.

Top Plays:  Russell Westbrook (FD), Steven Adams (FD)

Secondary Plays: Steven Adams (DK), Russell Westbrook (DK) Victor Oladipo (DK), Enes Kanter

Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Lineup
PG- Chris Paul ($9,300 FD, $8,500 DK)
SG- J.J. Redick ($4,400 FD, $4,400 DK)
SF- Luc Mbah a Moute ($3,700 FD, $3,000 DK)
PF- Blake Griffin ($9,000 FD, $8,800 DK)
C- DeAndre Jordan ($7,500 FD, $7,200 DK)

Chris Paul has absolutely dominated Russell Westbrook. Last season in the three games that they played, Paul had a double double in each of the three games including a 32 point, 10 rebound 5 assist game at home early in the season. Westbrook is allowing the 6^th most fantasy points to the point guard position which should make for an easy time for Paul who is especially cheap on DraftKings at just $8,500.

Blake Griffin is also in a good spot tonight, as he is going up against the rookie Domantas Sabonis and Enes Kanter. Neither one of these players should be able to guard the athletic Griffin as they’re more inside rebounding post players where Griffin can expand the floor and beat you off the dribble. This is a nice contrarian GPP play.

Top Plays:  Chris Paul (DK)

Secondary Plays: Blake Griffin, Chris Paul