In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces is offering a $30,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 1,520. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $55 price point with a maximum of 200 entries. If you haven’t tried their salary pro format, this is a format that allows you to go over or stay under the cap starting with positive points instead of 0 if you stay under and starting with negative points if you go over. They have a $3,000 Salary Pro Sluggo tournament with an entry fee of $5.50
TOP STACK
Seattle Seahawks – QB Russell Wilson ($7,000) and WR Doug Baldwin ($5,300)
Russell Wilson has played at a completely different level over the past few weeks. Over the last three games they have combined for eight touchdowns in three games which when a combination is that hot you just have to ride it out until it stops. The Browns have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL ever since they have lost Joe Haden with a concussion. The Browns have allowed the eight most passing touchdowns and have allowed the 10th most passing yards this season. With the loss of Lynch and Rawls, Wilson will be forced to move the ball through the air and should be able to do so with ease this week.
VALUE STACKS
Detroit Lions – QB Matthew Stafford ($6,550) and WR Calvin Johnson ($5,100)
Calvin Johnson has been extremely disappointing this season, as he has not gone over 100 yards one time this season. Thankfully for Calvin, this is the best matchup that he will have all season, as he is facing a New Orleans secondary that is allowing 279 yards passing per game. While the defense has improved with the departure of Rex Ryan, this is a defense that is just not very talented and Calvin Johnson should have a great opportunity going up against Delvin Breaux. The Lions are last in rushing yards in the NFL, so with a game total at 51 they are going to have to throw a significant volume to keep up in what should be a shootout of a game.
Cincinnati Bengals – QB A.J. McCarron ($5,400) and WR A.J. Green ($6,000)
A.J. McCarron looked like he can be a decent quarterback in this league last week against the Steelers. He immediately established his favorite wide receiver as A.J. Green had a big game with 132 yards and a touchdown last week. This week they go against the San Francisco 49ers which might be the worst defense in the league as they were shredded through the air by Johnny Manziel as he threw for 270 yards. This is a tremendous opportunity and McCarron could not step into a better situation as his first start as even though it is on the road, this is a stack that should be under-owned and will allow you to spend up at other positions.
HIGH RISK STACK
Atlanta Falcons – QB Matt Ryan($6,900) and WR Julio Jones ($5,650)
This stack has not produced close to value over the last few weeks as when you’re looking to stack players you’re looking for those 10 point passing touchdowns instead of just four or six points. The issue is that Julio Jones has not scored a touchdown in five weeks, and Matt Ryan has looked awful over the last three games as he has not thrown for more than one touchdown. This can all be fixed this week, as the Falcons take on a Jaguars team that has been extremely poor over the last three weeks against the pass and are now allowing 261 yards per game. This is a game that the Falcons have to win in order to keep their playoff hopes alive, and Vegas is predicting a shootout with an over/under set at 49. This could very easily be one of the highest scoring games of the week, but the struggle could also continue for the Falcons as their red zone touchdown percentage started off the season at 72% in week 5, but since their losing streak their percentage has fallen to 56% on the season. They will need to have better success in the red zone and Julio will have to score in order to have this stack payoff.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 15.
Quarterback – Tom Brady New England Patriots ($7,500)
Tom Brady is dealing with an undisclosed illness and is questionable for the game. While all signs are pointing towards him playing it is something to monitor until game time. The loss in the Patriots’ offensive weapons is starting to catch up to Brady’s fantasy relevance, as he has only thrown for 300+ yards in one of his last four games. With Fantasy Aces being one point for every 20 yards instead of 25 yards it does put more emphasis on passing yards and downgrades the emphasis on passing touchdowns a little bit. The Titans are 9th in the NFL in pass defense allowing only 233 yards per game through the air, which when you add in the illness, the price, the lack of weapons, and the matchup this is a situation we are recommending avoiding this week. If you’re looking to spend up on a quarterback look at Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, or Carson Palmer.
Running Back – Devonta Freeman Atlanta Falcons ($5,650)
Devonta Freeman has not been the same guy since he returned from his concussion two weeks ago. He is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry against Tampa Bay and Carolina. Where Freeman has been better is in the passing game as he had 10 receptions against Tampa Bay two weeks ago. The issue here is that with a half point PPR, pass receptions from a running back are not as valuable as the full point formats. Jacksonville has been good against running backs this season as they have only allowed 3.6 yards per carry. Freeman’s price just has not come down low enough in order to start him as if you’re going to pay up for a running back you should pay up for Adrian Peterson in a premiere matchup against Chicago.
Wide Receiver – Calvin Johnson Detroit Lions ($5,100)
At $5,100 Calvin Johnson will be one of the highest owned plays on Fantasy Aces this week, and we feel he is a value stack with Stafford this week. However, if you are not going to stack him, we avoid not rostering him in a GPP format. The primary reason is that Calvin Johnson at this point is just a name. He has been dealing with an ankle injury for most of the season and has only broken 100 yards once this season which hinders his upside. The matchup is a good one as the game is supposed to be one of the highest scoring games of the week, and the New Orleans defense is the worst in the NFL. In cash games Calvin is a great play, and he makes for a great value stack with Stafford, however we recommend not starting Calvin on his own due to the risk of Calvin and there will be a high number of Stafford/Johnson stacks that you’ll be going up against due to his ownership percentage being so high.
Tight End – Jordan Reed Washington Redskins ($4,900)
Jordan Reed will be one of the more popular plays on Fantasy Aces this week, as he had 120 yards and a touchdown against the Bears last week. The problem is that Reed has been inconsistent this season as he has only had 50 yards and a touchdown in three games this season. Rex Ryan teams have a history of shutting down the tight end and have only allowed 6.2 points per game to opposing tight ends which included a 4.7 yard performance by Rob Gronkowski. Jordan Reed should do better than that, but there are better tight ends that we like this week such as Greg Olsen for upside or Delanie Walker for more of a safe play.
Defense and Special Teams – Every team except for the Seahawks or the Chiefs
Once again this is a week that you’re going to pick between the Seahawks or the Chiefs defense as they are in such good matchups again that you should really only be choosing between these two teams. The Seahawks are facing Johnny Manziel and while he has been good recently, the pressure of playing in Seattle should cause him to revert back to being turnover prone. The Chiefs are facing Matt Schaub who is becoming known as Mr. Pick 6, as he has thrown an interception for a touchdown in three consecutive games. The Chiefs defense has shown that they are turning into one of the best in football, and should be able to cause a lot of problems for the Ravens this week.
HIGHEST OWNERSHIP
Quarterback
Cam Newton Carolina Panthers ($7,100)
Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks ($7,000)
Blake Bortles Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,400)
Running Back
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals ($4,900)
Lamar Miller Miami Dolphins ($5,100)
Denard Robinson Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,200)
Wide Receiver
Calvin Johnson Detroit Lions ($5,100)
Jeremy Maclin Kansas City Chiefs ($5,000)
Doug Baldwin Seattle Seahawks ($5,300)
Tight End
Greg Olsen Carolina Panthers ($5,000)
Delanie Walker Tennessee Titans ($4,800)
Jordan Reed Washington Redskins ($4,900)
Defense and Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks ($3,450)
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,000)
Cincinnati Bengals ($2,850)
LOW OWNERSHIP/CONTRARIAN PLAYS
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford Detroit Lions ($6,550)
Alex Smith Kansas City Chiefs ($5,900)
Ryan Fitzpatrick New York Jets ($6,500)
Running Back
Adrian Peterson Minnesota Vikings ($6,200)
Latavius Murray Oakland Raiders ($4,750)
Tim Hightower New Orleans Saints ($4,550)
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones Atlanta Falcons ($5,850)
Brandon Marshall New York Jets ($5,800)
Alshon Jeffery Chicago Bears ($5,300)
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots ($5,800)
Gary BarnidgeCleveland Browns ($4,850)
Zach Miller Chicago Bears ($4,100)
Defense and Special Team
Cincinnati Bengals ($2,850)
New York Jets ($2,850)
Houston Texans ($2,800)
