Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Away | Game Total | Team Total | Running | Pass | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | Bears | -7 | 50.5 | 28.75 | +++ | +++ | |
| Patriots | Chiefs | -8 | 48 | 28 | +++ | +++ | |
| Steelers | Browns | -9 | 46.5 | 27.75 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
| Panthers | 49ers | -5.5 | 48 | 26.75 | ++ | ++ | |
| Titans | Raiders | -2 | 51 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Packers | Seahawks | -3 | 50 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Vikings | Saints | -3 | 48 | 25.5 | + | + | |
| Cowboys | Giants | -3 | 47.5 | 25.25 | + | + | |
| Cardinals | Lions | -1.5 | 47.5 | 24.5 | + | + | |
| Raiders | Titans | 2 | 51 | 24.5 | + | + | |
| Bils | Jets | -8 | 40 | 24 | ++ |
+ |
+++ |
| Eagles | Redskins | 0 | 47.5 | 23.75 | |||
| Redskins | Eagles | 0 | 47.5 | 23.75 | |||
| Buccaneers | Dolphins | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||
| Seahawks | Packers | 3 | 50 | 23.5 | |||
| Broncos | Chargers | -3 | 43.5 | 23.25 | |||
| Lions | Cardinals | 1.5 | 47.5 | 23 | |||
| Texans | Jaguars | -5.5 | 40 | 22.75 | ++ | ||
| Rams | Colts | -3.5 | 42 | 22.75 | + | ||
| Saints | Vikings | 3 | 48 | 22.5 | |||
| Bengals | Ravens | -2.5 | 42.5 | 22.5 | |||
| Giants | Cowboys | 3 | 47.5 | 22.25 | |||
| Bears | Falcons | 7 | 50.5 | 21.75 | |||
| 49ers | Panthers | 5.5 | 48 | 21.25 | |||
| Dolphins | Buccaneers | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||
| Chargers | Broncos | 3 | 43.5 | 20.25 | |||
| Chiefs | Patriots | 8 | 48 | 20 | |||
| Ravens | Bengals | 2.5 | 42.5 | 20 | |||
| Colts | Rams | 3.5 | 42 | 19.25 | |||
| Browns | Steelers | 9 | 46.5 | 18.75 | |||
| Jaguars | Texans | 5.5 | 40 | 17.25 | |||
| Jets | Bils | 8 | 40 | 16 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Tom Brady (Patriots), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Mike Gillislee/Rex Burkhead (Patriots), LeVeon Bell (Steelers)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Brandin Cooks/Chris Hogan/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/Vance McDonald (Steelers)
- Defense: Bills
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Cam Newton (Panthers), Marcus Mariota (Titans), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Jonathan Stewart/Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), DeMarco Murray (Titans), Ty Montgomery (Packers), LeSean McCoy (Bills)
- Receivers: Kelvin Benjamin/Devin Funchess/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Eric Decker/Rishard Matthews/Delanie Walker (Titans), Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams/Randall Cobb/Martellus Bennett (Packers)
- Defense: Steelers, Texans
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Sam Bradford (Vikings), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Derek Carr (Raiders), Tyrod Taylor (Bills)
- Running Back: Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Darren McFadden (Cowboys), David Johnson (Cardinals), Marshawn Lynch (Raiders)
- Receivers: Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Cole Beasley/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown/J.J. Nelson (Cardinals), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Jared Cook (Raiders), Zay Jones/Jordan Matthews/Charles Clay (Bills)
- Defense: Rams